When is it time to flee, part three

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The world is flat, if you have sufficient funds, it makes perfect sense to become a global citizen, lower your personal tax burden, and choose to live in a lower cost location where your funds will go further, and improve your quality of life. But anywhere is prone to crisis, and actually, crisis has a habit of spreading. So, barring some remote islands in the Indian Ocean, South Pacific, or a few green dots in the Atlantic. (St. Helena? Cape Verde?)...everyone is extremely connected to the global economy and global events.

American expats can still vote of course, so it's not like you're giving that up. Having a US passport is still a powerful and useful thing. But yea, life is short, why live surrounded by people you loath? Or continue living in fear? It's a big world out there, try something different.

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The concerns expressed mirror those of many South Africans in the 90's and 2000's, as they experienced a spiraling downward of the economy, general safety,....and well, pretty much every positive aspect of society really. Around a million left the country, many relocating to places like UK/Canada/UAE/USA/Australia/and beyond. Of course, many of them left for good.

 

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Greece seems pretty stable compared to the US, though obviously my perspective is limited to English-language media for the time being.

For an expat, I wager Greece is fantastic for quality of life reasons. It's cheap, the weather is great (when there's no forest fires), food is fantastic. But on the other hand, Greece is a fairly poor country, with huge, looming demographic problems (similar to a lot of other EU countries) a fast aging society, fewer people having children, more deaths than births --- I've seen several stories on Euro News, France 24 ect... of young Greek professionals who must leave their towns and villages and emigrate (many to the US) if they want to maintain a middle class (or better) lifestyle. There are simply no economic opportunities at home. --- for many young Greeks, their country has a dire future.

Anyway, this story in Guardian -- now this dude is on to something; LA native, sold everything, bought a yacht. Why pick a single country when you can pick up anchor whenever you wish?

https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2024/oct/28/a-new-start-after-60-boat-stephen-payne

 

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Worrying about illegals/migrants is just a distraction; long term, it's the aging demographics, and widening gap between the rich and everyone else (shrinking middle class); ie. today, the Average American can no longer afford the median price of a US home, (now over $400,000); or even the median price of a vehicle (~$50K), staying in the middle class is increasingly a struggle, with many slipping out of it. Canada suffers similar issues to a certain degree - the only silver lining, there are slightly more social services in Canada to buffer the fall. Most of the EU is far worse, many countries will experience rapid population shrinking.

If you vote in Conservatives/Republicans who promise to slash social services/education/infrastructure/medicare funding, it'll probably just speed up the creation of slums/ghettos full of illegals and people slipping out of the middle class, while the rich enjoy tax breaks and luxurious AI powered gated compounds built by the likes of Thiel/Musk/or other billionaire.

 

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I know that I have tendency to go into long monologues about history on these forums, and in an attempt to stop doing that, I won’t explain the background to Anschluss. Suffice to say that the situation between the US and Canada in 2024 is nothing at all like Germany and Austria in 1936. There were good reasons to join Austria and Germany that had nothing to do with the Nazis. If you want a parallel to US-Canada, it is probably closer to Poland in 1939.

In the 1930's people had to choose between fascists and communists. Thankfully we live in a globalized world, one where you can diversify your assets and have at least one foot in a non-aligned country that won't be dragged into a disastrous war.

 

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There are plenty of countries where you can simply buy a visa, especially for the short term (1-5 years) ect.... Countries like Thailand, you can do a visa run every six month or so, many people do that. Obviously, family, ie. kids, complicates everything. Dubai even has a remote worker visa, but the cost of living there is not cheap any more.

IMHO Mexico might be safe in select areas, but obviously the threat of mafia/cartel violence is always there. Mexican politics seems very unstable and unpredictable to me. Plus if you're in one of the nice beach side locations, a big hurricane could come by and wipe you out. These are all risks, but of course, cost of living can be very cheap there, renting something in a nice building/compound could make it worth it.

I know of someone who moved to Panama about a decade ago, they bought an apartment there. They seemed happy with it. I'm sure the 'nice' areas of the city are perfectly safe. Greece looks great too. ---also part of EU of course. ....but I don't think I'd be buying any real estate there. Maybe check out Cyprus..... I know of another British guy who retired there and he is more than pleased with it.

I think a lot of the choice comes down to your personal timeline. Some countries are very stable right now, but looking forward ten years or more, you can easily anticipate where problems will crop up. When economies go bad, politicians always pick on the outsiders first. So even if you become an expat....you'll still need a plan B.

 

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It's actually pretty tricky to permanently move to Canada now. After the Egyptian 'revolution' in 2011, several Coptic Christian Egyptians I know moved with their wife and kids to Canada and claimed refugee status. One guy had to sell all his assets and show that he owned nothing. Anyway, long story short, it took a few years but they became Canadian citizens; they got jobs (had to go back to university in Canada to re-qualify their degrees). But it was a long, arduous saga... and now Canada is closing it's doors to some immigrants/refugees. So for Canada, you best chances of getting in are, have a lot of money, marry a Canadian, or claim persecuted refugee status.

 

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I'd say, pick a country with a low cost of living, somewhere the USD$ is strong. Everything else can be mitigated. There isn't much sense escaping from the US if your quality of life goes down, there have to be benefits... Because there are always so many other issues to deal with (culture shock, different rules regulations, local politics, local economic circumstances ect....).

 

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Canada eh.

Maybe instead of everyone fleeing to Canada, Canada can just annex the Western part of the US, like, Washington/California/Orgeon. We can even give them improved names like, New Washington, New California, British Oregon.


https://ca.news.yahoo.com/us-electi...p-secures-presidential-victory-041750372.html
More seriously; Perhaps consider Mexico, apparently it has more than 1.5 million American expats. Cost of living in Mexico is relatively cheap (half of the US for same standard of living?). And there are loads of really nice places to settle (that are hopefully free from cartel activity). Plus the food….wow, eat fresh avocados every day.

Mexico actually sounds pretty great, provided you can get the visa situation to work for you.

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/10/12/americans-relocating-mexico-city-better-life.html

 

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There are actually several cases of transgender people seeking asylum in Canada, including Americans. But as the report demonstrates, it’s a very long and winding path, with no certainty.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/brit...ansgender-united-states-persecution-1.7103455

 

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Not a tax expert, not least a US tax expert….but don’t ask these questions on some forum, if you’re serious, consult a qualified tax expert specializing in expat issues; the US is one of the few countries that taxes foreign income for it’s citizens. I know a guy who got a huge IRS bill for foreign income when he worked overseas for several years that he somehow didn’t claim properly, it was a rude awakening. That said, so as long as you fill out the right forms, check double taxation treaties, yadda yadda yadda, should be no problem. And most importantly, don’t put all your eggs in one basket.

 

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No country wants me or my wife so we're both fucked.

I'm probably going to be unceremoniously fired due to Schedule F.

I'm 40, she's 50. Neither of us work in a "needed" job and neither of us speak anything but English.

We can just do our part and resist, but it's not looking good...

You might need to think outside the box. For example, Cambodia is pretty much where Thailand was thirty years ago, it's possible for an American to get a long term visa (1 year) with little headache.; you can live cheaply there, food is great, plenty of low cost accommodation, and Cambodians are the most pleasant people ever. I visited Cambodia once - did a tour of Phnom Phen, Angkor wat, just a short hop from Thailand (like 15 years ago now); incredible country, full of rain forests, ancient temples, awesome food ect.... At that time, Phnom Phen was full of 'hippy types' all opening trendy coffee shops; I imagine now there are way more Chinese business types due to the gambling industry. I do know one Englishman from Oxford (who serindipidouly cheated on his wife with a Cambodian - and had a baby), decided to settle in Phenom Phen (he was a development consultant), bought an old house and fixed it up. Really cliche actually-- maybe that was more a midlife crisis type deal, but he was happy with it (probably a bit of a SOB for cheating on his wife like that too- One time he nearly died from catching dengue fever, which is endemic in the country; I think he got old and returned to England by now) ---- I'm not making moral judgements, the point is he loved living in Cambodia, learned the language ect... So as far as safety goes, it's a good option.

 

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I'm so jealous of people that have the ability to get citizenship via descents. One of my parents descendants are Russian and Ukrainian jews. My other parent was adopted. I don't think a person could have a worse set of options.

One of my great-grandparents was British; So I might qualify. But....I've never bothered. I'm already Canadian, and everyone likes Canadians around the world, who wants to be British? (yes....I'm joking---- all those thousands of migrants coming over from Calias want a British passport bad).

"UK immigration rules allow an automatic claim to British Citizenship if you have a grandparent (and, in rare cases, a great-grandparent) born in the UK."

 

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I am debating Ireland, Norway or even Germany or France. I realize language is going to be tough but I am willing to give anything a shot.

Norway would be like hitting the jackpot. I know one Norwegian (university professor - probably retired now), everything is covered, even mandatory holidays. Of course, income taxes are huge - but quality of life is unparalleled.

Spain looks really nice, and as others have said, very welcoming to immigrants (under their current government...). But on the other hand, lets be honest, salaries in Spain are on the lower end. But if you're a remote worker, no problem.

I know one American couple (from Texas) who worked for American International School (I think in Berlin), Germany for many years (this was in the late 90's/early 2000's); They of course loved it, they went on to live in Morocco for a bunch of years (also International School) and loved it there as well. They are nearly retired and still live overseas, as returning to Texas would negatively impact their quality of life (huge medical costs for one).

There aren't many countries you can just show up and expect to get hired with a descent salary any more. So, you either need to have contacts, a job lined up, remote worker....or have sufficient funds to sustain yourself and get in that way.

 

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France doesn't have their next election until 2027, Macron about to become very popular again. The man is the cat with nine lives.

Now I want Trudeau, Macron, and Starmer to meet in an Irish pub and get pissed. And stream it live.

 

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In a dictatorship, there's always communications monitoring going on anyway, possibly with Internet locked down/

I think the only true dictatorship in the world right now is North Korea. More common are authoritarian and autocratic regimes. Many of these countries invest in surveillance tech, from the US/EU/Israel,and increasingly China. Surveillance state type stuff; cameras everywhere, tracking digital transactions, that type of thing. Given these countries also have lots of corruption, most of these surveillance measures are window dressing, and more commonly only used to attack political rivals/journalists/the 'opposition'. Most countries are all in competition with each other, (especially smaller economies) to attract foreign capital/investment, that is the real priority; so they don't want to scare off people. Dubai/UAE or Turkey is a great example of this.

This is what separates an expat from an immigrant. An immigrant will eventually gain full citizenship, the right to vote ect...; but the expat forever exists in a subliminal state, that grey area of a temporary visitor; so they cannot, by circumstance or inclination take too much interest in local affairs. The other factor is living with constant change, shifting political sands, even climate change are having all kinds of unpredictable consequences (ie. massive floods in Valencia). Or like in Thailand, where the government recently made massive changes to their visa laws for long term expats. That is part of the adventure.

Anyway, I see above there was a great reply to the benefits of Mexico. I can understand why hundreds of thousands of Americans are migrating there. Low cost of living, laid back life-style, and a welcoming government. I even caught a real estate show the other day on HGTV; Americans/Canadians buying property there -- the prices are going up fast! But still cheaper than most American cities. Pro-tip; don't buy anything, rent for a few years first. Bearing in mind....all those things are only possible if you have plenty of American dollars filling your pockets.

 

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That sounds a cold decision to me

"the USA sucks but it's a good place to earn money, so I'll stay here until retirement, then freeload off a country with a better safety net (that I didn't contribute to)."

It's called becoming a global citizen. Actually, it's exactly what billionaires do; or a Brit declaring non-dom status, or choosing a tax free haven, or perhaps a developing/emerging economy where cost of living is a fraction of the US (or -insert- developed economy of choice).

In the big picture, it's the rest of the world the US freeloads off of right now. The US exports their inflationary causing dollars, causing untold damage to the rest of the world. So why not take advantage of it, use those inflated benjamins and live a better life, somewhere safer, with better weather, where the local economy is still growing and developing.

 

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As a quick return to the original question:

The answer is now. Anyone with means should get out now before borders are closed and assets are frozen. Investments are about to crash hard, your cash is going to be eaten by inflation, and even real estate won't hold forever.

Regardless of whether things have yet reached "bad enough" for you personally, your window of opportunity to get out is likely to close before you notice the water boiling.

About half our investments are in Canuck bucks, half are USD....so far, it's evened out. The Canadian stock market is sort of ok, but the Canadian dollar is now at a 20 year low....but on the other hand, every single other currency is falling vs. USD. I expect the Canadian dollar will recover eventually, probably whenever energy prices bounce back
So as long as you got some dollars and are using them outside the US, you're probably doing just fine.

I get your message, it's a boiled frog scenario, and if people didn't have a plan several years ago...they may be stuck now, especially if saddled with big debts/mortgages, or job they can't afford to quit. (Good jobs are harder to come by now after all).

It's looking like Trump and Musk will do everything they can, destroying the US government, to keep the US stockmarket afloat.

 

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Roth contributions can be withdrawn at any time for any reason without taxes or penalties. So you can roll the Roth 401(k) to a Roth IRA and then withdraw the portion that is contributions. The gains however yes are stuck until 59.5 unless you pay taxes + 10% penalty.

NYT had a big piece on this. It all depends on what your income is really.

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/01/31/...th-conversion.html?smid=nytcore-android-share

 

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Moved to Canada in 2018. Our 401ks are both still sitting in US markets. My understanding is that we should still be able to withdraw from them once we pass the standard retirement age, but my wife's the accountant (not me) so take anything I say with a big grain of salt. If I recall correctly, though, the decision at the time was that there would be a bigger tax hit from messing with or restructuring them now, compared to just waiting and not taking anything out until we're significantly older.

They take off the tax before it arrives in your Canadian account. But you only pay tax once. (25% ouch). One needs an accountant that knows what they're doing. At least it can be deposited to Canada into a USD account. Considering the surging USD vs. the collapsing CAD$, even with paying the tax its worth it.

 

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This is somewhat true but hyperbolic. I have had an offshore bank account for years. Yes compliance is tougher, not all banks are willing to accept Americans but the idea you need $10M is laughable. HSBC Expat (formerly HSBC Offshore) with ~$93k minimum balance ($75 GBP). With $250k you have access to more than 50 quality offshore banks.

HSBC used to be the gold standard in offshore banking....not quite any more. They've pulled out of retail banking in several large markets, like Canada and the USA. No more local HSBC branches. It used to be so easy, free online transfers from Canada to offshore to 'wherever'. In 2022 HSBC sold all their accounts to Royal Bank of Canada, which is useless. And of course, since Canada has cracked down on money laundering, many transfers, like a wire transfer, must be done in person.

 

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To be fair, HSBC was caught laundering billions of dollars of cartel money. That's probably the main reason for the 'restructuring'. But their online services couldn't be beat while they lasted.

 

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So,
After discussing with the spousal unit, the only countries we could possible move to would be Canada and Ireland (she doesn’t wan’t to leave her current employer). Myself, however, have experience in Cyber Security so would be the one looking for work. Any advice on getting an Irish visa(wife said it was pretty hard). Canada?

If you are serious about Canada, simply start the process. But I’d do it quick, the tides might be changing regarding free flow of immigrants (greatly depending on which party gets elected in the approaching election). But on the other hand, there is a skills shortage in most areas in Canada, you’d probably be able to easily get in. If I wasn’t already Canadian, I’d choose it out of all other developed economies; too many pluses (except maybe the long harsh winters). Canada remains a true immigrant nation.

The CAD$ is also really low right now, so if you have USD, your funds will go far. Housing prices are also slightly decreasing in some cities.

 

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Oh, the good old Golden Visa talking point. Some countries no longer offer it, as it resulted in inflating property prices due to the number of immigrants purchasing real estate to meet the Golden Visa requirement. You pay $500k for some land, and end up owning $500k+ of land. "A corrupt scheme with zero return" absolutely comedy.

I know of an older British guy who initially retired to Egypt, but then got fed up for various reasons and scurried off to Cyprus. This was probably about ten years ago now. He was more than happy with the choice. As far as I know, the quality of life there is pretty good, safe, relatively cheap, barriers to entry are lower than other locations, plus there is a British Military base on the island, so no worries about war breaking out. (I just looked and Cyprus raised required yearly income to $50,000 euros, which is a bit much?). Visa hopping or temporary residence in places like Thailand/Philippines/Bali is also a trend that's cheap (very cheap in some cases) and safe ---but not exactly stable because laws can change at any moment.

 

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So, we are in our early fifties and what little research I have put in puts us at a major disadvantage even with my skill set. Is that really true? Ideally we would be looking at BC as the primary destination.

There is no age/race discrimination in Canada, but you'll probably either need a job offer as a skilled worker (many categories), or have enough money to invest/start a business.

https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-citizenship/services/immigrate-canada.html

Even if the Conservatives get into power, I can't really see them changing much regarding Immigration (except maybe cutting back the refugees/asylum seekers, Canada has a huge skills shortage.

 

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Ugh, running into practical issues getting the move done. The visa options we have for long-term work either require a local company, or are of the Digital Nomad type that assumes a 1099-like setup instead of W2 (which is what I am). I do not want to transfer to 1099 for various reasons, and it's technically possible to do it as a W2, but it's fraught. Mostly because it requires work from your employer. Possibly long-term, in the sense of sending taxes overseas on your behalf.

Still planning on making the move, but it looks like we might have to do the "holiday visa shuffle" among a few different countries until we can find a lawyer that can finagle us properly.

I've seen some Americans do that; For exmaple, France for 90 days, then they can go to a cheap Non-Schengen country for 180 days, then go back to France (or another EU country).

 

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Then there's always HSBC Expat, headquartered in Jersey which gives off that offshore breezy island vibe.

Does anyone know what the "invest" means in the HSBC expat requirements? Can it be something low risk like a MMF?

They have 'high interest savings accounts' (yea, not that high now) and some other funds. However, you have to meet the requirements to invest in those....and I don't think Americans are eligible. You can open accounts in pretty much all the major currencies. If there are HSBC branches in the country you're in, very easy to get a local HSBC account and then link them together, allowing you to do free money transfers, which can save quite a bit. Annoyingly, HSBC pulled out of Canada (and even USA) in recent years.

The basic services they offer is good for moving funds around and having a safe place for your cash that you'll never have to worry about. They have all the fancy apps, online customer service, credit cards, biometrics and online security. Not so much for 'investing' ....unless you have serious briefcases of cash, then I'm sure they'll roll out the red carpet for you.

 

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Definitely don't want to do that for an extended period of time with a school-age daughter, though. The moving is disruption enough without us causing her to miss school as well.

Go become a Canadian, it needs good people!

(just don't look at the exchange rate)

 

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I think socks and sandals is the international signal that you’ve accepted middle age, don’t give a f*ck about fashion, and are already shopping for a pair of those velcro crocs.

Victoria is fine, it’s a small city of mostly rich old people, very ‘lefty’, very nimby, lots of hippies, cafes and coffee shops, vintage clothes and used book stores, tourists ect….; strangely, also lots of homeless people and now, lots of vanlife types scattered about - mostly due to the temperate weather. Of course, the cost of living is eyewatering. Everything is expensive. I guess if you’re a super outdoors person the location might be good. If you’re uber rich, you can buy a water front property, a boat, and do that. I think one could still find property outside Victoria, in one of the suburbs or nearby towns that is ‘reasonable’. I went to university of Victoria, didn’t really like the fact it rains for 80% of the year. The weather can be more dreary than UK. Maybe with climate change theres less rain?

Weatherwise, I think I’d pick east coast, but of course, there isn’t much going on there; which is probably why most Canadians live along a small stretch of geography in southern Ontario along the US border.

Interior of BC; Kelowna is vastly overdeveloped, but plenty of nearby towns along the highway in the valley (just use google maps), or look closer to Alberta border, mountainous tourist towns —- if you like mountains. Wildfires could be a risk. —- of course, prices have risen in all the nicest spots. The further north you go in BC, the cheaper it gets….but there isn’t much civilization up there either. For ’off grid life’ it can work - youtube is full of those types, surrounded by moose and bears, with starlink (need a Canadian alternative to that now!), solar, and batteries.

If one is American with fat wads of USD, they could definitely find a deal, considering our loonie is now hovering around 69 cents. OUch! There are localized housing price corrections happening across the country.

 

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Get an HSBC account in Vietnam, then one in Jersey, get free online transfers. Super safe and easy.