When is it time to flee, part three

[Yagisama]

I appreciate your local perspective! It's possible that the people I am introduced to through friends skew towards professionals who have less worry with rents.

If you don't mind me asking, where are you situated?

Oh I'm just a visitor there, though I spend a few months each year there. Mostly in the suburbs of Tokyo or Kanagawa. And we registered our marriage in the city hall registry right after we got married. Current versions of this document has been the basis of all my spouse visas there (helpful during covid).

Professional there have it really good. Doubly for expat professionals. There is a (slight) pecking order when it comes to the foreign workforce there and those from the UK and Scandanavia are at the top.

But my experience is mostly with students and elderly persons (both wealthy and the ones that have to work even when they're over 80). The pensions are ridiculously low there. So $1000/month rent may seem really low but not if it's double one's monthly pension.

Sure, if I somehow survive for the next 10 years it's going to be great for me to move there. But not if the society there continues this current path of inequality. Recently, the minimum wage was raised by the largest increase ever. The increase? 50 yen. Or about 33 cents.

Japan's highest-ever minimum wage rise: Some see relief, others grief

 

[Yagisama]

Rush hour commuting in Tokyo does indeed suck (those photos of station staff pushing people into the train are real). I commmuted there for 3 years, and there was a term called "niku buton" - meat futon, i.e. you're all jammed together so tightly that you're in a human sandwich front & back, and to the sides.

Fortunately outside of Tokyo it's not so bad. Here in Osaka the trains do get crowded, but not nearly to the level of Tokyo. People's main grumble are the tourists with massive suitcases who get on the trains at rush hour, jamming up the interior & generally getting in the way.

Very true about Tokyo. I think about 1/3 of the population in Japan lives in the greater Tokyo area so it's packed even in the suburbs.

Even in the Seibu Ikebukoro line far away from the wards, last year a group of tourists came in with lots of luggage and one of them started banging on the luggage as if playing the drums.

True to form the Japanese mannerism during these times is to rush out the train at the next exit, and then enter the next car over. So the trains end up being more packed.

 

[NewNinetyNine]

Oh I'm just a visitor there, though I spend a few months each year there. Mostly in the suburbs of Tokyo or Kanagawa. And we registered our marriage in the city hall registry right after we got married. Current versions of this document has been the basis of all my spouse visas there (helpful during covid).

Professional there have it really good. Doubly for expat professionals. There is a (slight) pecking order when it comes to the foreign workforce there and those from the UK and Scandanavia are at the top.

But my experience is mostly with students and elderly persons (both wealthy and the ones that have to work even when they're over 80). The pensions are ridiculously low there. So $1000/month rent may seem really low but not if it's double one's monthly pension.

Sure, if I somehow survive for the next 10 years it's going to be great for me to move there. But not if the society there continues this current path of inequality. Recently, the minimum wage was raised by the largest increase ever. The increase? 50 yen. Or about 33 cents.

Japan's highest-ever minimum wage rise: Some see relief, others grief

I really appreciate sharing the experiences of a different demographic. Are these students dropping out of the workforce or struggling?

Interestingly, I read today that 1 in 5 Japanese highs school boys have had their first kiss versus 1 in 2 in 2005 (7?). I wonder if the tough path forward causes the youth to check out.

 

[Yagisama]

I really appreciate sharing the experiences of a different demographic. Are these students dropping out of the workforce or struggling?

Interestingly, I read today that 1 in 5 Japanese highs school boys have had their first kiss versus 1 in 2 in 2005 (7?). I wonder if the tough path forward causes the youth to check out.

Some are dropping out of society (the famous "otakus", many have multiple part time jobs. Many young women end up in "girl's clubs" (hostess bars). A couple of male students always posted on the class forum that they have no hope for the future. I tried to use some tough love ("I didn't have much hope for the future either when I was your age") but now I'm older and I still don't have much hope for the future. I wouldn't know what I'd tell them now.

 

[Coriolanus]

Where exactly would we flee to?

 

[Louis XVI]

Where exactly would we flee to?

Depends on what you’re looking for, what you can afford, and what visas you qualify for.

 

[Coriolanus]

Depends on what you’re looking for, what you can afford, and what visas you qualify for.

I see point number 2 being kind of a major hurdle.

 

[The Sheep Look Up]

A more fun question: hypothetically, how bad would it have to get before an EU or NATO nation granted asylum to Americans?

 

[Coriolanus]

A more fun question: hypothetically, how bad would it have to get before an EU or NATO nation granted asylum to Americans?

They aren't going to. No country or even bloc like the EU is able to handle the logistics of such a huge migration, and it's going to burden their social welfare systems.

 

[Louis XVI]

I see point number 2 being kind of a major hurdle.

Yeah, visas that allow you to work in foreign countries can be hard to come by unless you already have a job lined up. If you can work remotely, a lot of countries offer digital nomad visas.

 

[Coriolanus]

Yeah, visas that allow you to work in foreign countries can be hard to come by unless you already have a job lined up. If you can work remotely, a lot of countries offer digital nomad visas.

Point number 2 is about what you can afford.

 

[The Sheep Look Up]

They aren't going to. No country or even bloc like the EU is able to handle the logistics of such a huge migration, and it's going to burden their social welfare systems.

I'm more wondering at what point they would be willing to admit how failed / fallen our state is. That's a significant poke to the bear.

 

[Louis XVI]

Point number 2 is about what you can afford.

Right, and what you can afford often depends on whether you can work for a living. For example, Costa Rica is relatively cheap to move to, but if you can’t work, living there might be unsustainable long term.

 

[Coriolanus]

Right, and what you can afford often depends on whether you can work for a living. For example, Costa Rica is relatively cheap to move to, but if you can’t work, living there might be unsustainable long term.

I don't know if you noticed, but remote jobs are a bit hard to come by nowadays. And I don't think relocating someone's family overseas is particularly affordable for most people.

 

[Louis XVI]

I don't know if you noticed, but remote jobs are a bit hard to come by nowadays. And I don't think relocating someone's family overseas is particularly affordable for most people.

I haven’t been in the remote job market, so I couldn’t say. But yes, I’m sure the cost is a significant and perhaps insurmountable hurdle for a lot of people.

 

[Coriolanus]

I haven’t been in the remote job market, so I couldn’t say. But yes, I’m sure the cost is a significant and perhaps insurmountable hurdle for a lot of people.

Most people.

As somebody who moved to the US as a kid with no money and lived in a basement sleeping on a folding bed frame with newspapers and towels as a mattress - that sucked a lot.

Are you prepared to live like that?

 

[Louis XVI]

Most people.

As somebody who moved to the US as a kid with no money and lived in a basement sleeping on a folding bed frame with newspapers and towels as a mattress - that sucked a lot.

Are you prepared to live like that?

Yes, most people. I’m really privileged, so I was able to get out and live in a nice house on a lovely Greek island. I’m not sure what you’re getting at here, other than generalized hostility. Of course leaving the country will be difficult or impossible for a lot of people. This thread is aimed more at folks who have the ability and might be considering it.

 

[Zich]

Thanks for the callout for digital nomad visas. I have the means to flee, and work at a very flexible company completely remotely. There seems to be a fair number of options.

 

[blindbear]

Yes, most people. I’m really privileged, so I was able to get out and live in a nice house on a lovely Greek island. I’m not sure what you’re getting at here, other than generalized hostility. Of course leaving the country will be difficult or impossible for a lot of people. This thread is aimed more at folks who have the ability and might be considering it.

Or return to your home countries for some of the immigrants. We come to USA for better lives, but may end up leaving USA for better lives.

PS: My parents have been asking me to renew my Hong Kong ID. I guess it is time to do it. I do not want to move back given the work culture in Hong Kong, and my career. However, I may need to consider the option. My siblings are more settle in USA than I am (married non-HKers, and grow up here mostly).

 

[The Sheep Look Up]

Or return to your home countries for some of the immigrants. We come to USA for better lives, but may end up leaving USA for better lives.

One generation removed from being welcomed back to Éire with open arms.

 

[yd]

One generation removed from being welcomed back to Éire with open arms.

A very high up and solid place on any list.....now about that weather

 

[NervousEnergy]

Yes, most people. I’m really privileged, so I was able to get out and live in a nice house on a lovely Greek island. I’m not sure what you’re getting at here, other than generalized hostility. Of course leaving the country will be difficult or impossible for a lot of people. This thread is aimed more at folks who have the ability and might be considering it.

I would think a lot of the long-term Ars population is nearing retirement age, and the question for us isn't if we can work (though writing or other digital nomad gig work might be a supplement), but how much damage retirement income might take with a Dollar and/or market crash.

In the US, if you're willing to relocate to Mexico or Central America (Costa Rica, Panama, etc) you can live very well on typical US retirement income. If you've got more than that with a combination of market assets (401K, Roth, etc) along with decent annuities (pension / SS) you can fairly easily live in most EU countries as long as you're not looking at prime real estate, and are willing to do the bureaucratic dance.

 

[Random_stranger]

I would think a lot of the long-term Ars population is nearing retirement age, and the question for us isn't if we can work (though writing or other digital nomad gig work might be a supplement), but how much damage retirement income might take with a Dollar and/or market crash.

In the US, if you're willing to relocate to Mexico or Central America (Costa Rica, Panama, etc) you can live very well on typical US retirement income. If you've got more than that with a combination of market assets (401K, Roth, etc) along with decent annuities (pension / SS) you can fairly easily live in most EU countries as long as you're not looking at prime real estate, and are willing to do the bureaucratic dance.

How safe is Mexico, or other countries in Central America?

 

[The Sheep Look Up]

A very high up and solid place on any list.....now about that weather

Don't worry about it. Fifteen minutes or five miles, it'll be something else.

 

[Louis XVI]

How safe is Mexico, or other countries in Central America?

My family ruled out Mexico due to its instability. Plus, Trump repeatedly threatened to launch military incursions within Mexico during the campaign. If that happens, I can’t imagine the locals being too friendly towards American expats.

Costa Rica and Panama appear to be pretty safe and stable, though.

 

[NervousEnergy]

My family ruled out Mexico due to its instability. Plus, Trump repeatedly threatened to launch military incursions within Mexico during the campaign. If that happens, I can’t imagine the locals being too friendly towards American expats.

Costa Rica and Panama appear to be pretty safe and stable, though.

Stability is a concern, but remember Mexico is a really big place, and it still currently the #1 destination for retiring American expats (1.6 to 2 million, estimated). Conditions and stability can vary widely region to region.

I'd probably pick Panama myself if I had to choose a Central American residency base.

 

[yd]

My family ruled out Mexico due to its instability. Plus, Trump repeatedly threatened to launch military incursions within Mexico during the campaign. If that happens, I can’t imagine the locals being too friendly towards American expats.

Costa Rica and Panama appear to be pretty safe and stable, though.

Uruguay or Chile would be my top two South American choices. The former is fairly easy/amenable to getting in, I don't know about Chile.

 

[blindbear]

I would think a lot of the long-term Ars population is nearing retirement age, and the question for us isn't if we can work (though writing or other digital nomad gig work might be a supplement), but how much damage retirement income might take with a Dollar and/or market crash.

In the US, if you're willing to relocate to Mexico or Central America (Costa Rica, Panama, etc) you can live very well on typical US retirement income. If you've got more than that with a combination of market assets (401K, Roth, etc) along with decent annuities (pension / SS) you can fairly easily live in most EU countries as long as you're not looking at prime real estate, and are willing to do the bureaucratic dance.

Is Mexico or Central America politic more progressive than USA though? A lot of them are majority Catholic countries.

 

[arcite]

There are plenty of countries where you can simply buy a visa, especially for the short term (1-5 years) ect.... Countries like Thailand, you can do a visa run every six month or so, many people do that. Obviously, family, ie. kids, complicates everything. Dubai even has a remote worker visa, but the cost of living there is not cheap any more.

IMHO Mexico might be safe in select areas, but obviously the threat of mafia/cartel violence is always there. Mexican politics seems very unstable and unpredictable to me. Plus if you're in one of the nice beach side locations, a big hurricane could come by and wipe you out. These are all risks, but of course, cost of living can be very cheap there, renting something in a nice building/compound could make it worth it.

I know of someone who moved to Panama about a decade ago, they bought an apartment there. They seemed happy with it. I'm sure the 'nice' areas of the city are perfectly safe. Greece looks great too. ---also part of EU of course. ....but I don't think I'd be buying any real estate there. Maybe check out Cyprus..... I know of another British guy who retired there and he is more than pleased with it.

I think a lot of the choice comes down to your personal timeline. Some countries are very stable right now, but looking forward ten years or more, you can easily anticipate where problems will crop up. When economies go bad, politicians always pick on the outsiders first. So even if you become an expat....you'll still need a plan B.

 

[Embattle]

I certainly believe a lot more Americans will talk about it than actually do it.

 

[Random_stranger]

I certainly believe a lot more Americans will talk about it than actually do it.

For sure. I mean, Canada is the default choice here if it gets that bad (3/4 of us have Can citizenship). Assuming Canada doesn't follow suit in 12 months..

 

[arcite]

It's actually pretty tricky to permanently move to Canada now. After the Egyptian 'revolution' in 2011, several Coptic Christian Egyptians I know moved with their wife and kids to Canada and claimed refugee status. One guy had to sell all his assets and show that he owned nothing. Anyway, long story short, it took a few years but they became Canadian citizens; they got jobs (had to go back to university in Canada to re-qualify their degrees). But it was a long, arduous saga... and now Canada is closing it's doors to some immigrants/refugees. So for Canada, you best chances of getting in are, have a lot of money, marry a Canadian, or claim persecuted refugee status.

 

[Random_stranger]

It's actually pretty tricky to permanently move to Canada now. After the Egyptian 'revolution' in 2011, several Coptic Christian Egyptians I know moved with their wife and kids to Canada and claimed refugee status. One guy had to sell all his assets and show that he owned nothing. Anyway, long story short, it took a few years but they became Canadian citizens; they got jobs (had to go back to university in Canada to re-qualify their degrees). But it was a long, arduous saga... and now Canada is closing it's doors to some immigrants/refugees. So for Canada, you best chances of getting in are, have a lot of money, marry a Canadian, or claim persecuted refugee status.

Was that meant for me? As I said - me and both daughters have Canadian citizenship. Just got their citizenship papers, next step is probably a passport.

 

[PuglyWont]

Any country need Math tutors. A country that actually cares about education? Working on the fringes of the American education system here, and the vector of change hasn't been positive in the last 30 years... maybe 40... maybe even 50(before my time)? We've crossed the event horizon and America is going to implode in it's own stupidity.

 

[Megalodon]

Was that meant for me? As I said - me and both daughters have Canadian citizenship. Just got their citizenship papers, next step is probably a passport.

I have Canadian citizenship, but it's not at all clear to me it won't go the same way in the next election. Or even more so.

 

[dio82]

Any country need Math tutors. A country that actually cares about education? Working on the fringes of the American education system here, and the vector of change hasn't been positive in the last 30 years... maybe 40... maybe even 50(before my time)? We've crossed the event horizon and America is going to implode in it's own stupidity.

Yes and no for Germany. Germany is looking badly for maths teachers and has programs for speed-tracking college educated, but the requirements for a teacher's job are steep. You need to be proficient in German and you need to have an appropiate "mathsy" college degree.

 

[Neill78]

My escape plan involves Japan but it's not going to be feasible until ~10 years later. Let's keep the dictatorship stuff at bay until at least then, shall we?

I've got a couple extra rooms and I love to cook. If the brownshirts are getting too pushy let's see if you can't push that timeline back a bit

 

[dio82]

Anybody thinking about emigrating to Germany, ping me.

The German industry is looking very badly for IT-Jobs, with many companies even having English as their official language in office (they are so international!).

Compared to the US, do expect a massive cut in pay. But expenses are much lower; groceries are about half and rent is a third to a quarter compared to the US. Medical costs and education are free, and medical insurance costs a fraction of what you pay in the US. So it evens out:
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DWJja2U7oCw


Expect to live for rent in a smaller flat; expect to say goodbye to your car and to embrace public transport.

 

[Da Xiang]

Life here in China got a lot more difficult when Trump won in 2016. His trade war was extremely unpopular. Then his constant drumbeat of "China Virus, China Virus" pushed that even further. Now he'll probably be back to set his new trade war and hate speech. I'm here for primarily financial reasons of survivability and this isn't going to help. I really miss the pre-Trump days when strangers smiled and said "hello" to me. That hasn't been part of daily life here since our last go-round under him.

 

[Papewaio]

Australia or New Zealand.

Australia has a lot of immigrants, almost 30% of the population is born overseas and almost half have a parent who are born overseas. Yes housing is expensive in the capital cities of each state where majority live.