When is it time to flee, part three

Louis XVI

Ars Legatus Legionis
11,169
Subscriptor
I thought Portugal ended that program? My neighbors used it since as a same sex couple they’re next in the firing line for Trump and the packed courts.

There is a fair bit of local resentment and also you’ll need to be ready for fire season.
As far as I can tell, the digital nomad visa remains, though Portugal ended the golden visa via real estate purchase.
 
I thought Portugal ended that program? My neighbors used it since as a same sex couple they’re next in the firing line for Trump and the packed courts.

There is a fair bit of local resentment and also you’ll need to be ready for fire season.

The resentment is due to the real estate rising costs in the major cities that's spilling to the smaller cities and so on, caused in part by, you guessed it, US nationals (and others) coming to live here and outbidding the locals. A gentrification at the country level, if you may say it. Don't get me wrong, the country is very receptive to foreigners, especially well qualified and with high incomes, but in the last years it has been too many, too fast and it's heating up the economy in a bad way for the locals.

Re: fire season, AFAIK, I don't think it's worse than what's been happening everywhere with a Mediterranean climate, like in California, for example. It's bad but if you're coming from California, you know how it is already. Like in many other places, the main problem is decades of abandonment (everyone wants to live in the cities) and neglect of rural areas plus spread of invasive species that have turned what was a very fire-resilient ecosystem into a tinderbox. Add to it climate change and, well, it's not looking to get better, unfortunately.
 

uno2tres

Ars Scholae Palatinae
1,104
Subscriptor
I thought Portugal ended that program? My neighbors used it since as a same sex couple they’re next in the firing line for Trump and the packed courts.

There is a fair bit of local resentment and also you’ll need to be ready for fire season.
The D8 digital nomad visa is new as of fall 2022. What you are probably thinking of is that Portugal (sensibly) eliminated real estate investment as an option for their golden visa (that is still available for €500k investment or €250k donation, just not real estate).

Fire season won’t be new, I don’t live in a direct risk area but we’ve been getting smoke season pretty reliably for a few weeks August-October (the worst year the sky was orange and everything got covered in ash).

I spent a few weeks there in 2019 (mostly hiking the Camino de Santiago, but some time in Porto as well) and at least at that point it was very friendly, but I wouldn’t be surprised if things have changed.

Language shouldn’t be a tremendous barrier, it’s close enough to Spanish I was able to get a decent grasp of written material and basic pleasantries/etc pretty quickly.

My practical concern is 2028— there’s a significant probability we won’t have free and fair elections or a peaceful democratic transition, at which point getting EU LPR status or citizenship will be much more competitive, so any visa that will put me in the front of the line for citizenship is a big plus, and most other EU countries want ten years of residency. I’d rather emigrate as a skilled worker in the next two years than wait and flee as a refugee.
 

Macam

Ars Scholae Palatinae
1,266
The D8 digital nomad visa is new as of fall 2022. What you are probably thinking of is that Portugal (sensibly) eliminated real estate investment as an option for their golden visa (that is still available for €500k investment or €250k donation, just not real estate).

Fire season won’t be new, I don’t live in a direct risk area but we’ve been getting smoke season pretty reliably for a few weeks August-October (the worst year the sky was orange and everything got covered in ash).

I spent a few weeks there in 2019 (mostly hiking the Camino de Santiago, but some time in Porto as well) and at least at that point it was very friendly, but I wouldn’t be surprised if things have changed.

Language shouldn’t be a tremendous barrier, it’s close enough to Spanish I was able to get a decent grasp of written material and basic pleasantries/etc pretty quickly.

My practical concern is 2028— there’s a significant probability we won’t have free and fair elections or a peaceful democratic transition, at which point getting EU LPR status or citizenship will be much more competitive, so any visa that will put me in the front of the line for citizenship is a big plus, and most other EU countries want ten years of residency. I’d rather emigrate as a skilled worker in the next two years than wait and flee as a refugee.

Good info, thanks. Dual/EU citizen so I could go either route, but will definitely lean on citizenship. Been to Portugal, so familiar with the area/language.

Sharing the concerns on 2028 and that's likely to be a permanent feature. We already saw what appointing 1/3 of the federal judiciary did, let alone when this country put George W Bush in for two terms (Roe/Chevron/etc would still be standing). A good chunk of people literally have no idea what they voted in, but that's on them at this point.
 

NervousEnergy

Ars Legatus Legionis
11,010
Subscriptor
The D8 digital nomad visa is new as of fall 2022. What you are probably thinking of is that Portugal (sensibly) eliminated real estate investment as an option for their golden visa (that is still available for €500k investment or €250k donation, just not real estate).

Fire season won’t be new, I don’t live in a direct risk area but we’ve been getting smoke season pretty reliably for a few weeks August-October (the worst year the sky was orange and everything got covered in ash).

I spent a few weeks there in 2019 (mostly hiking the Camino de Santiago, but some time in Porto as well) and at least at that point it was very friendly, but I wouldn’t be surprised if things have changed.

Language shouldn’t be a tremendous barrier, it’s close enough to Spanish I was able to get a decent grasp of written material and basic pleasantries/etc pretty quickly.

My practical concern is 2028— there’s a significant probability we won’t have free and fair elections or a peaceful democratic transition, at which point getting EU LPR status or citizenship will be much more competitive, so any visa that will put me in the front of the line for citizenship is a big plus, and most other EU countries want ten years of residency. I’d rather emigrate as a skilled worker in the next two years than wait and flee as a refugee.
I thought they just eliminated where the property could be bought? Or did they eliminate it entirely? I know they stopped allowing RE purchases for the visa investment in coastal or big city areas. The interior of Portugal can be a bit sparse, but still has incredible villages.

The more the wife and I talk about it, the more central / southern France looks prime. I'm laboriously working at the language, and the wife is already quite fluent. That article on the previous page about micro-stressers is so spot on. I called it 'vibe', but 'micro-stressers' sounds far more scientific. ;) Walking into a tiny grocery store in L'Île Saint-Martin and buying one of the best chocolate au pain I'd ever had in my life and munching on it in a dead-quiet park down the street was pure low-stress magic. It's hard to describe.

It would be tough to try and work there, but we're still looking at it as a retirement move. Having said that, though, the whole B&B / small hotel angle is quite suited for expats if you have the capital to get started, and even popular rural areas like the Loire Valley are a fraction of the cost of Dallas for RE (or a tiny percent of a fraction compared to Paris.)

Nothing says family values quite as strongly as forcing people who got into families they now don't want to be in to stay stuck in them. What could possibly go wrong?!

On topic, one option that can get around the drama/problems of visas and the like is what is known as the 4/4/4 or 5/5/2 kinda plan. You never spend more than enough time in a place to be more than a tourist and don't violate visa's but are not resident for taxation. Four months in Australia, four month in Mexico and 4 months in Canada (just choosing randomly). Taxation then determined by your residency and if smart about that, can be quite low. Gotcha, very hard to own multiple places in different countries and can be more expensive on some fronts.

The whole 'nomad' thing to do tourist-level 90 - 120 day residencies to avoid longer-term visas or tax requirements is a very neat idea and I know some who do it, but you have to be very, very committed to that lifestyle, and it's a pretty radical lifestyle. You don't really own anything and have no real residence. If you're any kind of a homebody - you like your collectibles, art, furniture, etc., then you'll be pretty miserable. You must have the soul of a nomad and not just the job.
 
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uno2tres

Ars Scholae Palatinae
1,104
Subscriptor
I thought they just eliminated where the property could be bought? Or did they eliminate it entirely? I know they stopped allowing RE purchases for the visa investment in coastal or big city areas. The interior of Portugal can be a bit sparse, but still has incredible villages.

The more the wife and I talk about it, the more central / southern France looks prime. I'm laboriously working at the language, and the wife is already quite fluent. That article on the previous page about micro-stressers is so spot on. I called it 'vibe', but 'micro-stressers' sounds far more scientific. ;) Walking into a tiny grocery store in L'Île Saint-Martin and buying one of the best chocolate au pain I'd ever had in my life and munching on it in a dead-quiet park down the street was pure low-stress magic. It's hard to describe.

It would be tough to try and work there, but we're still looking at it as a retirement move. Having said that, though, the whole B&B / small hotel angle is quite suited for expats if you have the capital to get started, and even popular rural areas like the Loire Valley are a fraction of the cost of Dallas for RE (or a tiny percent of a fraction compared to Paris.)



The whole 'nomad' thing to do tourist-level 90 - 120 day residencies to avoid longer-term visas or tax requirements is a very neat idea and I know some who do it, but you have to be very, very committed to that lifestyle, and it's a pretty radical lifestyle. You don't really own anything and have no real residence. If you're any kind of a homebody - you like your collectibles, art, furniture, etc., then you'll be pretty miserable. You must have the soul of a nomad and not just the job.
Nope, they killed real estate entirely (including real estate investment funds) for the golden visa in fall 2023, but that really only hurts people who wanted a Schengen visa and eventual Portuguese citizenship without making Portugal their primary residence (the unique aspect is that it only requires 7 days of residence per year, as well as some tax benefits that are probably going away).

They still have the D8 (mentioned), which includes self employment with non-Portuguese income, as well as D7 (passive income/retirement) and D2 (entrepreneur), all of which qualify for citizenship after five years, so anyone with sufficient savings looking to make Portugal their primary residence will still have lots of options.

The D8 isn’t a short term visa— they want to attract permanent residents who bring in outside income.
 

Macam

Ars Scholae Palatinae
1,266
The D8 isn’t a short term visa— they want to attract permanent residents who bring in outside income.
I'm more than happy to provide that outside income. My inside income can be pasteis de nata.

Walking into a tiny grocery store in L'Île Saint-Martin and buying one of the best chocolate au pain I'd ever had in my life and munching on it in a dead-quiet park down the street was pure low-stress magic. It's hard to describe.

Hello, friend. If/when you move, let me know and I'll be more than happy to talk to you about the magic & wonders of European pastries over whatever trash biscuits it is that they serve over here (NorCal exempted). It's borderline worth emigrating just for the pastries.
 

scarletjinx

Ars Scholae Palatinae
1,191
Subscriptor
What, do you want a history lesson? I thought I was being extremely boring!
I'm probably ninja'd (only on page 3) - but haven't you noticed? The general Ars forum/comment reader likes it when someone goes off into the weeds in an exposition of an area of their expertise.

That's one of the major reasons I love Ars, at least.
 

charliebird

Ars Tribunus Militum
2,179
Subscriptor++
I'm probably ninja'd (only on page 3) - but haven't you noticed? The general Ars forum/comment reader likes it when someone goes off into the weeds in an exposition of an area of their expertise.

That's one of the major reasons I love Ars, at least.

I definitely like hanging out with people who are smarter than me. I try not to say too much, so they don’t figure out I'm an imposter. 🙊
 

scarletjinx

Ars Scholae Palatinae
1,191
Subscriptor
Since the thread has moved from when to go to where, I thought I'd add my 2 cents re where, in somewhat personal experience with regards to Mexico.

My dad decided to get a residencia (permanent residency) 6-8 years ago. There were a couple types of residencias available, if I recall, but most seemed to have the same requirements - assets or income. As he was a retiree, all he had to do was prove income of a minimum of $1,000/month (easily well over minimum with either SS and union pension) or $100,000 in assets. A 4 page application form, $35 fee, and two appointments at the consulate - both we were in and out in under half an hour. Paperwork was processed in under two weeks.

After something like 5 years as a resident he was eligible to vote in Mexico, even.

Pros & Cons: Cost of living is dependent on location. If you stay away from the resort areas and perhaps the areas whose prices have been driven up by large expat communities it is very good. My dad lived on an island south of Cancun, island living was a little pricier than average but still 1/3 the cost of living in the US. Food, housing is generally 1/3 the cost or more until you get into luxury. However, imported items like tech and household things can be limited in selection and not cheap at all, same or slightly more than the US. Healthcare is good and amazingly inexpensive. Internet was better than mine when I lived in the SF Bay Area and 1/3 the price.

If you're out of the main tourist and/or US dollar impacted drug/gun corridors, it's just as safe as anywhere else. Meaning, stay out of bad areas & be mindful of basic security. At the time he got this residency, I lived in Oakland, CA, which to my mind was generally much less safe than the area my dad moved to.

The biggest concerns people have that I see is its proximity to the US and its own political instability. All I can say to that is, from 15 years plus of familiarity with Quintana Roo & friendships with people there is that Mexicans very definitely do not feel Mexico is a satellite of the US, like a lot of Americans seem to view it. Trump's first term reinforced that and there seems to be a surge in sentiment from then on to separate Mexico from the US in various political etc ways, even if we are each others' biggest trading partners. I don't think the Trump mess is as likely to splash into Mexico as it could into Canada, who has its own rightward trend & unfortunate stock of Trump fans.

As for Trump trying to start something with Mexico - I have no conception how likely that is. But I do know that Mexicans in general do not conflate the US government and the general US person they meet. No one likes assholes of course, but if you treat people like people, most will return the favor.

Re Mexico's politics and corruption. Well, unfortunately their government is run by human beings, hence flawed. The current president from what I understand is more left leaning. (As an aside, and a woman, which is more than we can say the US is capable of electing.) I do not know know how stable this regime is, but my Mexican friends don't seem to be too worried. All I can do is look at the economy, and my 15 years of experience sees it growing. My father said Mexico now reminds him of the US post WWII boom - roads and schools being built, people able to buy homes & send kids to college for the first time in their family's history etc. The one negative factor I see (and don't know enough to put much stock into it) is that the dollar to peso conversion has strenthened. A year ago it got down to 15 pesos to the dollar and is now back to 19 or a bit more per dollar. (The past 15 years average has been about 18/$1.)

Corruption is also everywhere humans exist. I personally prefer the corruption in a place like Mexico, where a couple hundred will take care of a speeding ticket and befriending the local mayor will help you get building permits to the US where you have to be a billionaire for your voting preference to matter. YMMV

There are scammers and petty thieves in Mexico and of course they're looking at "rich" expats as fat juicy targets. However, in the US - wanna buy a Trump NFT anyone? Do you park on the street in Oakland? Again, I think this stuff is universal. The solution is learn the friggin' language and build your community relationships there. Make friends with your neighbors whether Mexican nationals or other expats - friends look out for each other - and real neighborhoods are still a thing there.

TL; DR: I'd move to Mexico now in a heartbeat if I could find a way to have a decent remote income. Unfortunately, my job skills are not really translatable out of California, let alone outside the US & I don't have the assets to support myself otherwise.
 
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Talked with some people last week. Some of their family members are plan on returning to California. I think for a lot of people moving to deep blue areas of USA would be the choice. That is assuming you already have the network in place though. Moving is always hard.
I've had some long chats with the spouse about next courses of action. It's tough to know whether to stay in a relatively safe red state, head to a blue state, or ditch altogether. If we stay, we're better positioned to help do what we can for those that need it. But what if that exposes us to more direct danger? If we move to a blue state, especially a west coast one, we've got a little more padding and give in the system before real horrors could drop out of the sky on us. That said, blue state enclaves are exactly the kinds of places the chuds may see as target rich environments. How much safer are you if Idaho and rural California are just going to vomit forth their worst upon you? Getting all the way out is getting out, but getting out requires getting out -- and all the money, effort, and hoops that entails.

The easy answers are gone. All that's left are hard truths and adaption.
 
I've had some long chats with the spouse about next courses of action. It's tough to know whether to stay in a relatively safe red state, head to a blue state, or ditch altogether. If we stay, we're better positioned to help do what we can for those that need it. But what if that exposes us to more direct danger? If we move to a blue state, especially a west coast one, we've got a little more padding and give in the system before real horrors could drop out of the sky on us. That said, blue state enclaves are exactly the kinds of places the chuds may see as target rich environments. How much safer are you if Idaho and rural California are just going to vomit forth their worst upon you? Getting all the way out is getting out, but getting out requires getting out -- and all the money, effort, and hoops that entails.

The easy answers are gone. All that's left are hard truths and adaption.

Yeah had similar chats with my wife. She is finding hope in the idea of heading to a deep blue state but I am skeptical. First we are in VA, moderately affluent, and not any demographic specifically under atttack. VA is a lightest shade of blue but it is blue. It has gone blue in the 5 President elections so it is more consistently blue than the "blue wall states" despite being red for the 40 years prior. VA is a bit weird in that it didn't do that normal purple state flipflop stuff. It just flipped and stuck. If enough moderates and liberals leave it could shift back into red. Another liberal in VA is worth more politically then stacking the 60/40 split in CA even further to the left.

The second thing is moving is expensive. Not just financially expensive but emotionally expensive and time consuming. Personally if we have to move I would want to leave the US completely. Not sure how CA would fare if fascists run the federal government. If CA tries to go against federal law at the very best you have a constitutional crisis and at the worst a civil war. Similarly not sure Canada or Mexico is far enough. If money was no object I would say New Zealand. Not only is it relatively liberal it is physically about as far from the US as you can get.
 
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m0nckywrench

Ars Tribunus Angusticlavius
7,270
If we stay, we're better positioned to help do what we can for those that need it.
What does "do what we can" mean specifically? Overseas you're positioned to learn to help prospective expats, positively represent expats, and engage humans you'd not otherwise meet. You can send money anywhere. You can help other people anywhere from a distance.

If you move to a blue state in an area highly unlikely to change that buys time to make future choices. You will be doing something for X years either way. My perspective on moving was usefully informed by the military where you get orders, accept your fate, go there, then repeat as useful (voluntary crosstraining etc) or when ordered. Retire when done. Medical issues are why I'm not a happy globetrotting expat worker, no other limfac.

If many, many thousands of other people can do a thing and enjoy all or most of it, so can others. Of course there's a learning curve but the FUN should really get more mention. Maybe it's harder to anticipate new, fresh fun one isn't used to, but it's out there. Oktoberfest makes Mardi Gras look like a joke by comparison. Most South Koreans were great hosts as were Turks.

If you're not sure, take exploratory vacations! No need to commit early. Overseas travel should get much more love from USians. If one spot doesn't suit, you can leave that too and once used to travel it's easy to move every few years with or without reason. Once used to it shit's easy if you have work or an outside income or both.

If you no longer live where your enemies rule they are no longer your problem. No one is indispensible but there are always ways to be helpful which kicks ass for human networking. (I didn't bring a vehicle to SK since I was married and making mortgage payments. I brought two large ammo cans of tools instead and fixed other peoples cars in return for rides and fun was had by all.)
 

Macam

Ars Scholae Palatinae
1,266
As someone in a deep blue state (CA) who moved from a deep red state (TX) well over a decade ago because I could see where the state politics were going (basically, a de-volution of man chart, which has been borne out pretty much perfectly) and a short hop to Mexico, Mexico is fine. The areas of concern tend to be south-central Mexico, with hot spots here and there (e.g., Guanajuato is a beautiful little town that was doing well, and is now facing a large uptick in narco violence). Baja is fine, Mexico City is fine, etc. It's more problematic if you're a journalist or a politician, and it's certainly not without its problems, but if you can make it work, it's a decent choice depending on your risk/comfort level. The bigger issue is that the economy is heavily tied to its northern neighbor and the primary industries are quite different.

I'm less concerned about the chuds doing anything physical here because, good luck trying that without leading to all sorts of issues in terms of economics/food/logistics (and that's a two way street in any case), but more of the rapidly increasing descent into even more of a corrupt, dysfunctional democracy that rots from the top. With the judiciary increasingly hollowed out, one party increasingly resorting to physical violence when things don't go their way, and that same party leveraging the legislative branch to constantly skew things towards the top and undercut the existing institutions and basic protections, then, great, some of us will look elsewhere to spend our time and labor.

The really isn't much value in a deregulated, increasingly socially regressive, corrosive hyper capitalist country where housing is astronomical, health care is astronomical, higher education is astronomical, elder care is astronomical, healthy food is something of a luxury, and the federal response will be "it's the trans people's fault".

Similarly not sure Canada or Mexico is far enough. If money was no object I would say New Zealand. Not only is it relatively liberal it is physically about as far from the US as you can get.

"Relatively liberal to the US" is an increasingly large club.
 

m0nckywrench

Ars Tribunus Angusticlavius
7,270
The second thing is moving is expensive. Not just financially expensive but emotionally expensive and time consuming.
It gets MUCH easier with practice and compared to years of life the time is a trifle. The biggest hassles are jobs and housing IF you must live where other people make it crowded and expensive (a very good argument not to live there). There are basic moving checklists to customize so your specific details aren't forgotten, and there is plenty of time to plan. I certainly wouldn't use my trivial political value of one vote in one location as excuse to stay when I could find tangible advantage by exploring. I'm under no delusion that I matter and that's liberating.

Also keeping it real, if you're smart, get in where you fit in (in reality, no fantasies allowed) and keep your head down it's easy to be invisible, boring and not show up on anyone's personal radar. Few people consider how easy it is to fly under the radar in CONUS. There are many places one can disappear even in very red states just by not interacting with anyone useless to them and being classically polite. Social skills are a weapon and creating a useful impression is gold.

The way a state is governed at a macro level need not disturb my life and I'm fine with that reality.
How much does the VA political climate REALLY affect your wallet, social and work opportunities etc? I live in very red SC and give no fucks because my ox is ungored. I don't preach at the natives and we get on fine. I live cheap, comfortably undisturbed and can do what I care to without interference.

If your position in prosperous VA is solid, is there really a COLDLY PRAGMATIC reason to move? How many more years do you need to work before retirement? Every situation is different. The safe way is measure yours with money because money enables freedom anywhere while poverty is worthless. Money makes it easy to curate your life. I still suggest international vacations...
 

blindbear

Ars Tribunus Angusticlavius
8,114
It gets MUCH easier with practice and compared to years of life the time is a trifle. The biggest hassles are jobs and housing IF you must live where other people make it crowded and expensive (a very good argument not to live there). There are basic moving checklists to customize so your specific details aren't forgotten, and there is plenty of time to plan. I certainly wouldn't use my trivial political value of one vote in one location as excuse to stay when I could find tangible advantage by exploring. I'm under no delusion that I matter and that's liberating.

Also keeping it real, if you're smart, get in where you fit in (in reality, no fantasies allowed) and keep your head down it's easy to be invisible, boring and not show up on anyone's personal radar. Few people consider how easy it is to fly under the radar in CONUS. There are many places one can disappear even in very red states just by not interacting with anyone useless to them and being classically polite. Social skills are a weapon and creating a useful impression is gold.

The way a state is governed at a macro level need not disturb my life and I'm fine with that reality.
How much does the VA political climate REALLY affect your wallet, social and work opportunities etc? I live in very red SC and give no fucks because my ox is ungored. I don't preach at the natives and we get on fine. I live cheap, comfortably undisturbed and can do what I care to without interference.

If your position in prosperous VA is solid, is there really a COLDLY PRAGMATIC reason to move? How many more years do you need to work before retirement? Every situation is different. The safe way is measure yours with money because money enables freedom anywhere while poverty is worthless. Money makes it easy to curate your life. I still suggest international vacations...

I think "where you can fit in" would be the key here. If you are visible identifiable (Trans, minorities, certain religion practices ), it may limited your opinions. If you have certain disabilities, your medical treatment options will also come into play in your decisions. Obviously, your friends/family network is also important as well.
 

wavelet

Ars Legatus Legionis
12,315
What does "do what we can" mean specifically? Overseas you're positioned to learn to help prospective expats, positively represent expats, and engage humans you'd not otherwise meet. You can send money anywhere. You can help other people anywhere from a distance.
The last part is iffy. The first thing an authoritarian regime will do is completely control all financial transfers (in and out of the country).
You can't rely on sending money from abroad -- it may be confiscated, in whole or in part, or large "fees" charged for the transfer.
 
The last part is iffy. The first thing an authoritarian regime will do is completely control all financial transfers (in and out of the country).
You can't rely on sending money from abroad -- it may be confiscated, in whole or in part, or large "fees" charged for the transfer.
If there's a potential for anyone to be looking, you also just violated infosec.
 
If your position in prosperous VA is solid, is there really a COLDLY PRAGMATIC reason to move?

In my current opinion no but in fairness to my spouse's feeling and perceptions it is still an open discussion. If things got so bad that changed not sure it is worth moving to a high cost of living state like CA makes sense over the numerous foreign options proposed. If things go super bad overnight we own a sailboat could just go for an afternoon sail and not come back.

How many more years do you need to work before retirement? Every situation is different. The safe way is measure yours with money because money enables freedom anywhere while poverty is worthless. Money makes it easy to curate your life. I still suggest international vacations...

I could probably retire next year but the game plan prior to election was wife retires next year and I will work another 3-5 years to build a bit more of a cushion. Like you said money is options. It opens doors.
 
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Macam

Ars Scholae Palatinae
1,266
Also keeping it real, if you're smart, get in where you fit in (in reality, no fantasies allowed) and keep your head down it's easy to be invisible, boring and not show up on anyone's personal radar. Few people consider how easy it is to fly under the radar in CONUS. There are many places one can disappear even in very red states just by not interacting with anyone useless to them and being classically polite. Social skills are a weapon and creating a useful impression is gold.

Shame this isn't a unicorn thread because I'd be hacking together a Con 🦅 Air film cover parody, dubbed Con US, with a plane taking off and destined for greener pastures with y'all's handles replacing the actor's names but, unfortunately, you'll just have to use your imagination.
 

charliebird

Ars Tribunus Militum
2,179
Subscriptor++
We lived in very blue Maryland however the Jan 6 events happened just 10 miles from my house. I realise that my family wasn't in any sort of danger but it still felt way too close for comfort. I'll never understand how people could just shrug it off but it scares the hell out of me.
 

Da Xiang

Ars Praefectus
4,371
Subscriptor
The last part is iffy. The first thing an authoritarian regime will do is completely control all financial transfers (in and out of the country).
You can't rely on sending money from abroad -- it may be confiscated, in whole or in part, or large "fees" charged for the transfer.
Living here in Southern China, I transfer money from the US every month without any fees at all. Just go to the ATM, pull cash out my US account (no fees) and then deposit the cash into my Chinese account. The only thing more simple would be if I could just transfer electronically online. Many years ago I wished to transfer a very large sum from the US. For that I had to provide the receiving account numbers to my US bank. They sent the funds. Then I had to make a personal appearance at the local Chinese bank I'd specified and show my passport in order to complete the process. Once again, I didn't have to pay any fees.
 

TheMeanDM

Smack-Fu Master, in training
74
I too have been talking with my wife. She doesn't want to leave Iowa 1) while her daughter still has high school (class of 2026) and 2) doesn't want to be "so far" from her kids in college (20/19). One is 60 miles, the other 90 mikes. It's interesting though that her son actually wants to move to southern CA when he graduates from college (he's a jr). I am sure that will be hard for her, but being his choice, I think she may handle it a little better.

Her middle daughter (19) has not taken this election well at all, being pan. I am sure she doesn't feel safe in Iowa, rights-wise. Cannot blame her at all. I wonder, if she wanted to move to a safer state, would my wife be more willing to follow suit.

I get it. My kiddos (20/20/18) are also all pretty close (1 in town and 2 each within 90 miles). I'd help them move if they wanted to...and offer to relocate them if we ever do decide to move.

As it is, we just keep on living as best we can under the idiots that keep getting elected to take away people's rights.
 
In a dictatorship, there's always communications monitoring going on anyway, possibly with Internet locked down/

I think the only true dictatorship in the world right now is North Korea. More common are authoritarian and autocratic regimes. Many of these countries invest in surveillance tech, from the US/EU/Israel,and increasingly China. Surveillance state type stuff; cameras everywhere, tracking digital transactions, that type of thing. Given these countries also have lots of corruption, most of these surveillance measures are window dressing, and more commonly only used to attack political rivals/journalists/the 'opposition'. Most countries are all in competition with each other, (especially smaller economies) to attract foreign capital/investment, that is the real priority; so they don't want to scare off people. Dubai/UAE or Turkey is a great example of this.

This is what separates an expat from an immigrant. An immigrant will eventually gain full citizenship, the right to vote ect...; but the expat forever exists in a subliminal state, that grey area of a temporary visitor; so they cannot, by circumstance or inclination take too much interest in local affairs. The other factor is living with constant change, shifting political sands, even climate change are having all kinds of unpredictable consequences (ie. massive floods in Valencia). Or like in Thailand, where the government recently made massive changes to their visa laws for long term expats. That is part of the adventure.

Anyway, I see above there was a great reply to the benefits of Mexico. I can understand why hundreds of thousands of Americans are migrating there. Low cost of living, laid back life-style, and a welcoming government. I even caught a real estate show the other day on HGTV; Americans/Canadians buying property there -- the prices are going up fast! But still cheaper than most American cities. Pro-tip; don't buy anything, rent for a few years first. Bearing in mind....all those things are only possible if you have plenty of American dollars filling your pockets.
 

Louis XVI

Ars Legatus Legionis
11,169
Subscriptor
This is what separates an expat from an immigrant. An immigrant will eventually gain full citizenship, the right to vote ect...; but the expat forever exists in a subliminal state, that grey area of a temporary visitor; so they cannot, by circumstance or inclination take too much interest in local affairs. The other factor is living with constant change, shifting political sands, even climate change are having all kinds of unpredictable consequences (ie. massive floods in Valencia). Or like in Thailand, where the government recently made massive changes to their visa laws for long term expats. That is part of the adventure.
I think “expat” generally just means wealthy, white, privileged immigrant; there’s no difference with regard to citizenship. For example, American expats in Greece can apply for citizenship after seven years.
 

tb12939

Ars Tribunus Militum
1,846
That should make you question the data. In fact, it’s entirely an issue with how you define maternal mortality and how you collect it: https://ourworldindata.org/rise-us-maternal-mortality-rates-measurement

TLDR: the US introduced a checkbox on death certificates that ask if the deceased was pregnant and uses that response to calculate the maternal mortality rate. So this includes pregnant women who died due to reasons unrelated to pregnancy (for example in a car accident).
Apparently not:

Update​

On June 27th 2024, this article was updated to clarify that the automated coding system in the US was used to classify deaths as maternal, if the checkbox was ticked in certain demographics, only for deaths where the ‘underlying cause of death’ listed a medical condition, not for injuries or ‘external causes of death’.
Sounds like the majority of over-counting would be for deaths from other medical causes - and I can't imagine that dying without external cause is that common in the general population at this age, nor should it be hard to subtract as a baseline.

You can also look at raw data and use 'obviously not pregnant' criteria to estimate the error rate in form filling.

In any case, the best that realistically be argued from that article is that the US traditionally had substantial underreporting, largely corrected everywhere now, and it's not getting worse. On the other hand, state to state variance is a strong signal that indicates likely issues, since the methodology is consistent now.
 
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BigVince

Ars Praefectus
4,337
Subscriptor
My family, who with very few exceptions are all naturalized citizens or are the US born children of naturalized citizens are all making plans to leave in the immediate future or seriously considering it. Most are planning to go back to Colombia where they would be quite comfortable, have family etc. A few others are considering South France and Spain. I think I'm staying but i did put in for a passport just in case and would likely end up in Colombia. The dollar is strong there and i could live very well but i am torn on actually leaving. On the one hand I'm giving the right a win by "Self-Deporting" if it comes to that but i also don't want to go through what ever hell Trumps cronies have in store. All of this and I'm a naturally born American citizen! I can even imagine how my actually undocumented friends are reacting.
 

uno2tres

Ars Scholae Palatinae
1,104
Subscriptor
For anyone considering Latin America, Uruguay scores very well on democracy indices (96/100 on freedomhouse, on par with Belgium, Switzerland, Portugal) and has very accessible requirements for permanent residency and citizenship.
(Residency requires $1500/month in income, intention to stay long term, and no red flags, citizenship only requires 3 years of residency for married couples, 5 for single individuals)

https://freedomhouse.org/countries/freedom-world/scores?sort=desc&order=Total Score and Status

https://www.guruguay.com/getting-uruguay-residency/
 
I think the only true dictatorship in the world right now is North Korea. More common are authoritarian and autocratic regimes. Many of these countries invest in surveillance tech, from the US/EU/Israel,and increasingly China. Surveillance state type stuff; cameras everywhere, tracking digital transactions, that type of thing. Given these countries also have lots of corruption, most of these surveillance measures are window dressing, and more commonly only used to attack political rivals/journalists/the 'opposition'. Most countries are all in competition with each other, (especially smaller economies) to attract foreign capital/investment, that is the real priority; so they don't want to scare off people. Dubai/UAE or Turkey is a great example of this.

This is what separates an expat from an immigrant. An immigrant will eventually gain full citizenship, the right to vote ect...; but the expat forever exists in a subliminal state, that grey area of a temporary visitor; so they cannot, by circumstance or inclination take too much interest in local affairs. The other factor is living with constant change, shifting political sands, even climate change are having all kinds of unpredictable consequences (ie. massive floods in Valencia). Or like in Thailand, where the government recently made massive changes to their visa laws for long term expats. That is part of the adventure.

Anyway, I see above there was a great reply to the benefits of Mexico. I can understand why hundreds of thousands of Americans are migrating there. Low cost of living, laid back life-style, and a welcoming government. I even caught a real estate show the other day on HGTV; Americans/Canadians buying property there -- the prices are going up fast! But still cheaper than most American cities. Pro-tip; don't buy anything, rent for a few years first. Bearing in mind....all those things are only possible if you have plenty of American dollars filling your pockets.
I can’t wait for American expats to speedrun gentrifying the rest of the world while they forfeit their own country to a bunch of neo-Nazis!
 

wavelet

Ars Legatus Legionis
12,315
Living here in Southern China, I transfer money from the US every month without any fees at all. Just go to the ATM, pull cash out my US account (no fees) and then deposit the cash into my Chinese account. The only thing more simple would be if I could just transfer electronically online. Many years ago I wished to transfer a very large sum from the US. For that I had to provide the receiving account numbers to my US bank. They sent the funds. Then I had to make a personal appearance at the local Chinese bank I'd specified and show my passport in order to complete the process. Once again, I didn't have to pay any fees.
I'm no expert on China, but from what I read it's an exception. In order to maintain political central control, there's a lot of economic freedom.
In addition, I assume you're not a Chinese citizen? Can they also transfer funds with no oversight or reporting?
 

wavelet

Ars Legatus Legionis
12,315
I think “expat” generally just means wealthy, white, privileged immigrant; there’s no difference with regard to citizenship. For example, American expats in Greece can apply for citizenship after seven years.
Interesting. That's opposite to the usage of expat I'm familiar with, which is people who live abroad but keep their original culture & language, and have no intention of assimilating or becoming citizens. The etymology also points to this, from the Latin ex-patria , someone living outside their homeland (the term became popular during the European Colonial era) -- meaning they don't intend to change their homeland.
In any case, it doesn't necessarily mean wealthy (poor American artists & writers in 1920s France or Spain), white (it applies to Indians who move abroad for several years for university or to save up money) or privileged .

This is contrasted with immigrants, who do intend to move permanently, assimilate and become local citizens.
 
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blindbear

Ars Tribunus Angusticlavius
8,114
I'm no expert on China, but from what I read it's an exception. In order to maintain political central control, there's a lot of economic freedom.
In addition, I assume you're not a Chinese citizen? Can they also transfer funds with no oversight or reporting?

Money going out from China is the issue if I remember correctly. Money go into is easy.

Honestly, China is fine if you are Han Chinese and keep your head down. It has a lot of problems but every places has problems.
 
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eisa01

Ars Scholae Palatinae
1,090
Subscriptor
Norway would be like hitting the jackpot. I know one Norwegian (university professor - probably retired now), everything is covered, even mandatory holidays. Of course, income taxes are huge - but quality of life is unparalleled.
Income taxes are not that high in Norway in an European setting, it really helps that our "oil fund" funds 20-25% of the annual state budget...

One thing to be aware of is that (for better or worse) the wage differences in Norway are relatively small: Higher education pays off, but not to the same degree as in e.g., the US or other EU countries. E.g., you may have better quality of life as a IT developer in Poland over Norway due to our currency going down the toilet since the beginning of Covid (and before then the 2014 oil price crisis)