Critics suspect Trump’s weird tariff math came from chatbots

David Mayer

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Whether the Trump administration actually consulted chatbots while devising its global trade policy will likely remain a rumor.

That's what goes for "reporting" here? A rumor? Seriously, I know you hate Trump but you need to do better than this.

Of course it is based on goods and not services. That is the whole point. Other countries dump their products here and American made products have a hard time getting into other countries so we end up making less stuff here. Get it now. We don't want to be a country that makes nothing and depends on other countries for everything.

Instead of getting "triggered" on what "might" happen look at what is actually happening. Billions of dollars of new investment inside of America and GM picking up production in Fort Wayne and hiring, now, today, not a maybe in the future.
I get where you're coming from, but this isn't just idle speculation about something like:
Oh it looks like Edith used mental math instead of a calculator to solve a problem on her test.
And more like:
The US government looks to have used a new, controversial, technology to design what may be one of, if not, the most impactful trade policy in the entire world for the last half century or more.
Even if the evidence is just a "rumor" there is a small amount of credible evidence and the significance of the implications is undeniable.
 
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Statistical

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View attachment 106729

I am personally choosing to laugh instead of cry. If this was ever a time for black humor ...

Also, I think Trump finally overplayed his hand. He's fucking with the money. Even if they walk this all back today the damage is done, but I simply can't see this actually lasting. The one thing that will get people to break from him is throwing a wrench into the profit making machine.

I am not optimistic. Everyone who could do something about it (cough cough Republican majority) is scared of the emperor with no brain. The MAGA faithful are now pretending that "lower groceries" was never a thing and paying more for everything is patriotic.

The earliest that the damage can even be partially mitigated is Jan 2027 and that assumes people don't stay at home again because they don't have the feels.
 
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I'm not surprised about Trump.

But a lot of people around this don't make a good impression at all.

  • His acolytes not getting further than really dumb blanket tariffs, coming straight from ChatGPT.
  • The party establishment not being able to stop him from a policy disaster, one that threatens the republican majorities at the midterms.
  • The rest of the institutions unable to stop the overreach of the executive branch. He's clearly acting outside of the legal framework that allows him to set tariffs. There is no emergency. He's also violating a ton of trade agreements.
  • The press parroting 'reciprocal tariffs', while they are obviously not reciprocal. Even countries that have a negative trade balance and 0% tariffs get awarded with a 10% tariff.

It's all lies.
And if it isn't a lie, it's incompetence.
Incomprehensible that one cannot find the congressmen and senators needed to kick him out.
 
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mouseKnuckles

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Can we get one thing straight about T.R.U.M.P.?

His bankruptcies were intentional. He extracted maximum value from those business for his personal use, transferred his personal debt to those entities, and then walked away. That does take a type of business "genius," and that type is "sociopathic." He is doing exactly the same with the country. He is using tariffs the same way he is using E.O.'s against law firms and universities: to extract personal satisfaction through petty vengeance and favors for his personal interests and cronies.

He does not care about the businesses he ruins, including the vendors he stiffs and the employees he disrupts. He does not care about this country or what the future holds for your children. He won't be here. He has said he doesn't care about climate change because HE WON'T BE HERE.

Can we stop overthinking his intent? Let us bend our karmic will to helping him achieve the state of not being here as quickly as possible.
THIS!
 
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Aurich

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Think that depends on if we are already deep into fascism or still on a slippery slope heading towards it.

I thought he overplayed his hand with the whole coup thing. And more recently pitching invading Canada and Greenland to the public. The super rich already did their whole capitulation in advance thing, unsure they will suddenly grow spines. Do they care about the money situation for everyone else?
Yes. They always care about the money.

We need to stop thinking of Trump as some kind of unstoppable force, or that there is the secret cabal that all rich people belong to where they plan together.

Those other things you mentioned were distractions. January 6th was disturbing, but also a joke. The invasion stuff is all bluster and BS. All these things are noise to multinational corporations, they don't give a shit.

When you tank the stock market, jack up prices, suppress consumer demand, and fuck them? They pay attention.

We're seeing the Senate start to crack. I don't have a crystal ball, but I do feel like this time the pressures are gonna be real.
 
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mpfaff

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Whether the Trump administration actually consulted chatbots while devising its global trade policy will likely remain a rumor.

That's what goes for "reporting" here? A rumor? Seriously, I know you hate Trump but you need to do better than this.

Of course it is based on goods and not services. That is the whole point. Other countries dump their products here and American made products have a hard time getting into other countries so we end up making less stuff here. Get it now. We don't want to be a country that makes nothing and depends on other countries for everything.

Instead of getting "triggered" on what "might" happen look at what is actually happening. Billions of dollars of new investment inside of America and GM picking up production in Fort Wayne and hiring, now, today, not a maybe in the future.

Do you think it's easy to staff a factory right now? Those people in Springfield, Ohio that Trump and Vance told racist lies about. They moved there because the local factories couldn't fill jobs. My brother works at a factory that makes brake parts, they're always hiring and they always have weekend overtime because they are always understaffed. We don't have a shortage of jobs in this country, but a problem we do have is inflation outpacing wages and the things people need to buy getting considerably more expensive, guess what kind of effect a tax on goods will have on the price of goods.

What Trump did was levy a giant tax that will be paid by working class Americans. People who whine about the trade deficit are just getting their talking points from scumbag politicians. What Americans need is for the things they buy to be affordable, not for an airhead billionaire to jack up their taxes because the people in this country buy a lot of stuff made overseas.

We even have historical precedent, Smoot-Hawley didn't make the Great Depression better... On top of all that Trump can't seem to hire anyone in his administration who isn't some kind of a fuckup moron, it's why uninhabited islands have a tariff levied against them along with apparently Diego Garcia
 
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StrawberryMilkSamurai

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5
If you define winning the popular vote as getting the most votes instead of getting over 50% of the votes, sure.
Well he received more votes than Kamala did, and neither candidate breached 50%, so I do think that unfortunately counts as winning the popular vote. I do not like him nor do I support him, but the cult ended up outvoting us. Now we all suffer.
 
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EricM2

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An AI? ... What if this whole misconception of economics was planted in Trumps head by an AI?
What if he was intentionally manipulated into imposing this tariffs by an AI?
What if this if this manipulation of a gullible president and his yes-men running the world's last standing superpower was the first shot fired in the war AI vs. humanity?
Edited to add: /s

That would be an pretty interesting alternative plot to Daniel Suarez' "DAEMON". A top-down, frontal, centralized destruction of human economic power vs. Daemon's bottom-up, stealth and distributed approach to gaining power.
 
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Sajuuk

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Yes. They always care about the money.

We need to stop thinking of Trump as some kind of unstoppable force, or that there is the secret cabal that all rich people belong to where they plan together.

Those other things you mentioned were distractions. January 6th was disturbing, but also a joke. The invasion stuff is all bluster and BS. All these things are noise to multinational corporations, they don't give a shit.

When you tank the stock market, jack up prices, suppress consumer demand, and fuck them? They pay attention.

We're seeing the Senate start to crack. I don't have a crystal ball, but I do feel like this time the pressures are gonna be real.
Are we really calling an organized coup attempt a distraction/joke already? At this rate I can't wait to read the barrage of "it's a distraction" on the first day of Trump's third-term.
 
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mozbo

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We all think that providing examples like these will somehow wake up these idiots. But there is no reasoning with them. They are in a fascist cult.

No amount of metaphors, analogies, facts, nor logic will make these people stop frothing at their mouth with their pandered hatred.

Fascism has no ideology other than power; and specifically using demagoguery to achieve and maintain power.

View attachment 106737
15 of 15 now.

Ugh.
 
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Rector

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graylshaped

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An AI? ... What if this whole misconception of economics was planted in Trumps head by an AI?
What if he was intentionally manipulated into imposing this tariffs by an AI?
What if this if this manipulation of a gullible president and his yes-men running the world's last standing superpower was the first shot fired in the war AI vs. humanity?

That would be an pretty interesting alternative plot to Daniel Suarez' "DAEMON". A top-down, frontal, centralized destruction of human economic power vs. Daemon's bottom-up, stealth and distributed approach to gaining power.
No. This is not some cyber ploy.

He genuinely thinks he is smart. He genuinely thinks as a graduate of Wharton, he understands economics. He is genuinely influenced by whoever flattered him most recently. Consumed by his own insecurity, he cannot be seen to bow at any cost.

It isn't AI as you use the term. It is that his intelligence is artificial in the sense that it does not exist, and that like "AI" he, too is susceptible to hallucination, manipulation of weights, and jaw-droppingly dumb conclusions based on poor data fed into him.
 
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DarthSlack

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Nonsense formulas to paper over raw ignorance?
I'm almost certain that came from the DOGE babies.

The sad thing is, Trumpetters looking at that nonsense will be "OOOooo look how smert our boyo is!!"

Remember how before the election, all of us were worried that if Trump won, this time he'd be surrounded by competent advisors?

I guess we dodged that bullet.
 
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Sajuuk

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Remember how before the election, all of us were worried that if Trump won, this time he'd be surrounded by competent advisors?

I guess we dodged that bullet.
On the other hand, they're being quite efficient and competent at the real job: fascist takeover of America.
 
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The penguins... They're eating the fish... Our fish... Good fish... And they don't deserve to. They take and don't give anything back to our great nation. Many people are saying how penguins have ruined their lives.

Donald does like himself some File-o-fish. So you might not be wrong.

(I'm also starting to think the love of McDonalds comes strictly from the quasi-shared name. That is the level of intellect on display)
 
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SafeAsClown'sMilk

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The penguins... They're eating the fish... Our fish... Good fish... And they don't deserve to. They take and don't give anything back to our great nation. Many people are saying how penguins have ruined their lives.
Lock them up! Extradite those freeloading penguins to the USA, and then send them to a prison in El Salvador. /s I wonder how much Trump is paying El Salvador to jail anyone his administration deems "illegal aliens" .
 
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mpfaff

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On the bright side, Messrs. Smoot & Hawley can finally look forward to not being the canonical whipping-boys for bad tariffs!

I guess we’ll see. Dumping gasoline on the fire of the Great Depression wasn’t great. But neither is taking a hammer to the kneecaps of economic recovery.
 
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David Mayer

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Well he received more votes than Kamala did, and neither candidate breached 50%, so I do think that unfortunately counts as winning the popular vote. I do not like him nor do I support him, but the cult ended up outvoting us. Now we all suffer.
Yeah, that's fair, but that kind of winning the population vote doesn't imply a strong mandate.
 
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Fatesrider

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Donald takes action that benefits Donald. Fuck everyone else. This is the only rule. Why everyone has trouble figuring this out boggles my mind.
The sentiment rings true. But the reality is that Donald takes action that he wants to take. It doesn't necessarily benefit him or anyone else.

Psychopaths often have odd motivations. And his is "any attention on me is good attention".
 
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As suggested by Chat GPT. They seem to be following it.

A thought exercise. Imagine I'm the new president of the United States of America. What is the fastest way for me to wreck the global economy?

While it's important to approach such topics with sensitivity, I can outline some hypothetical actions that could have severe negative impacts on the global economy. Here are a few:

1. Trade Wars: Implementing high tariffs on imports from major trading partners could lead to retaliatory tariffs, disrupting global trade and supply chains.

2. Debt Default: Announcing a default on U.S. government debt would undermine confidence in U.S. financial stability, leading to a global financial crisis.

3. Currency Devaluation: Deliberately devaluing the U.S. dollar could lead to inflation domestically and destabilize economies that rely on the dollar for trade.

4. Withdrawal from International Agreements: Exiting trade agreements and international organizations could isolate the U.S. and disrupt global cooperation.

5. Regulatory Overhaul: Rapidly implementing stringent regulations on key industries could stifle economic growth and innovation, leading to job losses and reduced investment.

6. Political Instability: Fostering division and unrest domestically could lead to uncertainty, causing both domestic and foreign investors to withdraw their investments.

7. Energy Policy Changes: Abruptly changing energy policies, such as banning fossil fuel production or drastically cutting renewable energy investments, could lead to energy shortages and price spikes.

These actions, while hypothetical, illustrate how policy decisions can have far-reaching consequences. It's crucial to consider the broader implications of any leadership decisions on both national and global scales.
 
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mmurray

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According to The Guardian this is based on World Bank data. Very strange.

The export figures from Heard Island and McDonald Islands are even more perplexing. The territory does have a fishery but no buildings or human habitation whatsoever.

Despite this, according to export data from the World Bank, the US imported US$1.4m (A$2.23m) of products from Heard Island and McDonald Islands in 2022, nearly all of which was “machinery and electrical” imports. It was not immediately clear what those goods were.

In the five years prior, imports from Heard Island and McDonald Islands ranged from US$15,000 (A$24,000) to US$325,000 (A$518,000) per year.
 
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stk5

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No. This is not some cyber ploy.

He genuinely thinks he is smart. He genuinely thinks as a graduate of Wharton, he understands economics. He is genuinely influenced by whoever flattered him most recently. Consumed by his own insecurity, he cannot be seen to bow at any cost.

It isn't AI as you use the term. It is that his intelligence is artificial in the sense that it does not exist, and that like "AI" he, too is susceptible to hallucination, manipulation of weights, and jaw-droppingly dumb conclusions based on poor data fed into him.
Right. And he's been wanting tariffs for quite a long time. To the extent that an AI may have been used, it was just to come up with the specific rates. If they'd come from trump directly, they'd all be nice, simple numbers that end in 0 or 5, based on how he feels about the country at the time and whether or not somebody from it outbid him in an auction fifty years ago
 
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SubWoofer2

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The going to hell in a handbasket happening so very swiftly, brings forward the date of the War being launched as a distraction.

Europe will be faced with a war on two fronts - Ukraine and Greenland. Europe can't handle a war on two fronts.

Which will they support? Long-standing NATO member Denmark's sovereign territory, or the part of ex-USSR that was pledged not to be invaded as the deal when they gave up their nukes?

The planet's Northern Hemisphere summer will be interesting.
 
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