No evidence of associated supernova, and afterglow radio data contradicts current models.
See full article...
See full article...
Brightest-ever gamma ray burst (the “BOAT”) continues to puzzle astronomers
- Thread starter JournalBot
- Start date
OldLadyJosie
Ars Tribunus Militum
Man, if that's the case, I really don't envy Heaven's plumbing system right now.
Upvote
23
(31
/
-8)
Congratulations, you win on the internet today! No way anyone can top this comment today.
-d
Upvote
-4
(10
/
-14)
It's stories like these which highlight the things that make scientists look at their models in confusion, scratch their heads and mutter "what the fuck...?" that I most enjoy on Ars.
It's nice to know some things are still to be discovered and explained especially when they think they have a lock on it.
It's nice to know some things are still to be discovered and explained especially when they think they have a lock on it.
Upvote
64
(64
/
0)
But if it was, what are the chances they're still around, 1.9 billion years later?
Upvote
25
(26
/
-1)
Soon we will see a lightsail-powered trading ship coming from that area of sky, riding GRB 221009A. The crew will have many things to trade, and they will ask that we build them a launching laser so they can go on to the next stellar port-of-call.
If we refuse to build that launching laser, well, they have this device that makes the sun go boom....
If we refuse to build that launching laser, well, they have this device that makes the sun go boom....
Upvote
46
(49
/
-3)
Well if they are still around and still giving a shit about this reality, maybe give them some prayers?
Upvote
8
(8
/
0)
We've been operating gamma ray telescopes since 1960. Does it strike anyone else as unlikely that we've witnessed a 1-in-10,000-years event in those 63 years? The odds of that are, well, astronomical.
Upvote
21
(34
/
-13)
We will be fine, just as long as they spend time in the right bar, with the right bartender...
Upvote
23
(24
/
-1)
About the same as one time I dropped a nickel on the counter when paying for something. Instead of rolling away, or landing on its side, it spun on its edge a few times around, then came to a stop standing on its edge.
Or the time my Mom dropped a slice of Braunschweiger. It landed on the lip of her coffee cup. Rolled all the way around the rim, then fell on the table.
Upvote
24
(24
/
0)
Statistics and probability functions are magical things. If you have a decent population of samples, you can make a good guess as to the shapes of the probability function at the extreme ends. It doesn't mean that you're right, or that you didn't observe an event that differs from the event population (an elephant in a herd of zebra), but that doesn't mean that you have to have been observing for 10,000 years to estimate that it's a once in 10,000 year event.
Upvote
63
(64
/
-1)
I'm well aware of what probability distributions are, but those are predicated upon an assumed intensity function which itself must be reliant on realizations of the underlying distribution. If one knows that there is a functional form of the scaling it's easy to observe more common events and determine the probability of less likely events. But given that we're relying on stellar evolution models based on incomplete details, I'm going to go out on a limb and say it's more probably that we did not witness a one-in-10,000-years event but that our estimation of those long-period events are wrong.
Upvote
27
(34
/
-7)
Not really. It's got to happen sometime. Now, if we'd seen 2, that would be unusual.
Upvote
20
(21
/
-1)
All probabilities are based on estimates observed events. One low probability event doesn’t make the model wrong.
The moment there is additional data that supports a higher frequency estimate, then that will become the estimate.
You may be right that these events are far more common than 1 in 10,000 years, but you’re going to need enough data (with a high enough p-value) to prove that for anyone to accept your estimate as more accurate.
Upvote
18
(20
/
-2)
Not a BOAT. If it were, there would be a red light on the port and a green light on the starboard.
Upvote
12
(14
/
-2)
Just like people at different places on Earth can look up to the moon in unison, maybe, just maybe other creatures in other places of the universe were observing this event too…
Upvote
8
(8
/
0)
For all the naysayers on the 1 every 10,000 year thing, let me tell you that several groups estimated that independently based on different datasets from different instruments, and came to the same conclusions. I've yet to hear much criticism of this number from the GRB community, including some of the smartest people I know in this area of science. I guess it's easy to armchair quarterback your doubts on here.
Upvote
40
(42
/
-2)
Maybe we are looking down on the mast of a sailboat that is at anchor?
Upvote
2
(3
/
-1)
That much power aimed directly at us... Geez, they're really trying to reach us about our car insurance...
Upvote
22
(23
/
-1)
Upvote
42
(42
/
0)
Because there is likely at least one non hard science fiction fan in this thread, an excellent short story by Larry Niven is being referenced here,
Upvote
25
(25
/
0)
There's always more to learn and more to refine in our theories. Thanks for the update.
Upvote
1
(1
/
0)
Probably because those people are all working from the same data sets that inform modern understanding of stellar formation. Of course, interstellar winds were assumed to be even and the heliopause a nice sphere until we crossed it, planets were rare until they weren't, and models for solar system evolution all returned results like ours until we had more planetary data. I would expect that in another 50 years our understanding of GRB's will advance and change our understanding of the super-high-energy events that may be as rare as predicted now - or much, much more common.
Upvote
14
(19
/
-5)
To quote a JPL report on an unrelated subject, "The post-facto probability is unity."
Upvote
20
(20
/
0)
This thing was strong enough to disturb the Earth's ionosphere and its effects were picked up by lightning detectors in a few countries. Pretty impressive for something that happened almost 2 billion light-years away.
Upvote
27
(27
/
0)
Is the frequency of the photons detected by our instruments much higher than anything else? Or were there so much more of them?
Wondering how we can determine the burst's energy if this wasn't especially large for a GRB. What is the record holder for a GRB? How many sun's worth of mass converted into energy would this one be equivalent to? What about the record holder for a GRB?
Upvote
-1
(0
/
-1)
“It’s probably the brightest event to hit Earth since human civilization began” ??
Bet it's not.
Bet it's not.
Upvote
0
(2
/
-2)
They're not astronomical at all. 100 times 100 is 10,000. The odds of us finding something like this in a 100 year period is one in a hundred, or 1%. The odds of us finding something like this in a 63 year period is .63 %, so somewhat less. That's really not that unlikely at all, probably more likely than FAU being in the Final Four.
Upvote
9
(10
/
-1)
So fucking what if “several groups” developed the same distribution curve? All that means is they are making the same assumptions about the shape of the distribution, which could be just as wrong for each group. It’s a bad look to make a comment that is both incredibly condescending and shows incredible lack of understanding of the point, at the same time.
I’d point you an article about the statistics of distributions, and how often scientists assume the wrong shape distribution, but you’re probably too arrogant to bother reading it.
Upvote
-12
(1
/
-13)
Chucking neutron stars or black holes around to use as weapons or to harvest the energy from the collision (although that’s more associated with the Downstreamers, but it’s too soon for them) would be Xeelee level engineering so… fairly high maybe?
Upvote
1
(2
/
-1)