Had a long chat with my boss and he 100% got what I was saying and took some notes on points he personally hadn't thought about (basically the company is performing amazing, and that the CEO should probably pay some lip service to employees rather than just full focus and messaging around share price performance).
I was also told that I'm actually at almost the median of the pay band for our group, which was actually good to hear. I knew prior to my promotion and team change last May I was in the 85th percentile of pay, for my role. Credit to my boss, he has consistently been as transparent as he reasonably can be. He also didn't get a pay increase, so he was also affected by this, directly.
My boss shared some macro-level salary data with me, from some kind of survey we (as an org) subscribe to, and it's showing that, at least in tech, comp might actually be actively falling. Over 30% of firms surveyed had reduced their comp bands going into 2025. Few were below (inflation adjusted) 2020 levels, but they're clearly trying to reign in comp to pre-COVID levels, relative to the broader labor force.
Which is all to say, I'm not unhappy with where I am, but really this was a missed opportunity to possibly grab some really high performers at other firms, and ensure that we don't lose our best folks. To that end, apparently a pool of money exists if managers need an "emergency" comp adjustment, but it's essentially capped way under my comp right now.
Zooming out, I'm seeing things from the folks I work with closest that have had me convinced we're headed for trade-war induced stagflation. Orgs aren't really hiring to respond to growth, at best they're backfilling departures. Anecdotally though, one of the largest resellers I work with just implemented a hiring freeze along with a 5% RIF. They're privately held, so I don't know if the media will catch wind, but they're big enough that they have a major market sports arena in their HQ city named after them, and their client base is, primarily, Fortune 500 and a few Fortune 1000 orgs. Elsewhere, we're seeing our entire GTM ecosystem tightening up, asking for deeper discounts or risk slippage to next quarter, using financing more often, and folks "riding dirty" and dropping support on gear.
Again, anecdotally I have colleagues at other tech firms saying they're on a soft hiring freeze. Nothing official, but anytime roles open up, HR is slow-rolling the recruitment or pausing posting positions for indeterminate periods.
The endless uncertainty of this administration is having quite the effect. If people were quiet quitting during the pandemic, I think it's safe to call what a lot of orgs are doing now as "quiet downsizing." And consumers,
given today's inflation, savings and spending news, seem to be bracing for hard times and reducing spending where they can. Walmart yesterday said that they see signs of end-of-month distress from their customers.
Given there's almost zero chance of stimulus out of this government, this could be a long, painful period in our economy.