As a meteorologist, Hurricane Ian is the nightmare storm I worry about most

This is the kind of storm that destroys a community forever.

Read the whole story

 

[Frodo Douchebaggins]

Sometimes I idly consider what it would take to build a home that is so strong that the occupant simply doesn't have to worry about an incoming storm of any strength that has been experienced in recorded history, and I wonder how many of the features of such a home will become standard in certain regions.

Granted there are certain overall logistical problems like "if the strongest hurricane in history rolls through your area, and your house is fine, what's the surrounding area going to be like in terms of infrastructure?", but it's an interesting thought exercise.

 

[GerbilMagnus]

Eric, thanks for you coverage of this and space. I truly enjoy your writing.

I would be curious to see a follow up to your article the other month about the low hurricane activity has been compared to what was predicted.

I am no where near the coast so my coverage of hurricanes is mostly when they make the major news like this or from you here.
We normally vacation to Florida in Sept and know that we always risk a hurricane changing plans. We were just there 2 weeks ago and the weeks since we were followed out by Fiona (all the way back to canada even) and now Ian. Both seem to have been pretty major storms.
Do these change the 'been rather quiet hurricane season' from that article?

 

[mjeffer]

I lived in Orlando when Hurricane Charley hit Florida in 2004. That hurricane had a track similar to Ian's. Like Ian seems to be doing, Charley unexpectedly veered east toward Charlotte County and made landfall at Category 3 or 4. If I still lived in Florida, I absolutely would have planned on Ian veering east--not for meteorological reasons but out of experience. Even the much-weakened Charley that hit Orlando caused a lot of damage.

I like Florida, but I'm glad I no longer live so close to a coastline.

Glad to see you corrected the 2014 typo. I remember the Year of Four Hurricanes well, because I was also in Orlando for Charley, and then was down in Lakeland for Frances, Jeanne, and Crazy Ivan. That season was bad enough that I didn't have to look up any of the storm names or spellings, because they are that entrenched in my mind. My parents were among the many Central Floridians re-roofing after Charley, and my college had to shut down for a week mid-semester waiting for power to be restored to the campus.

I don’t want to be nit-picky, but Ivan was 2004. I remember vividly. Our business opening in Pensacola was delayed by almost a year by damage and flooding from Ivan. Blue roofs everywhere. Contractors were swamped with work. I drove across that accursed temporary Escambia Bay bridge more times than I want to remember.

The name “Ivan” was retired after that year.

2004 was a bad hurricane season. I was living in FL at the time and got hit by Francis, which wasn't too strong but was very slow moving and caused a lot of roof damage...two weeks later we got hit by Jeane which due to the already damaged roof on my house destroyed the inside from water damage. Thankfully I didn't stay for that one but when I got back every ceiling in the entire house had collapsed from water getting in.

 

[terrydactyl]

Rainfall potential this AM. That's a lot of water.

 

[ZippyPeanut]

Sincere question: why does the media send reporters/meteorologists to cover hurricanes on-site, in the middle of rain and growing wind gusts?

I understand being on-site immediately after the event passes, but why are they sent out into the bad weather itself?

Nerds are gonna nerd, and these are weather nerds.

...And some of them are drama queens, who are nowhere near the real danger of the storm.

If you search, you can find plenty of footage of those people staggering around as if the wind will blow them away at any moment, while people in the background walk around casually.

Of course, some are weather nerds as you say.

Hmm, I wonder if anyone's ever worked out a way to judge the actual windspeed in a video based on the types of debris blowing past?

r = d/t

If an approximate distance of a piece of light debris has flown in a segment of the video can be somewhat accurately determined, then the above equation can be used to approximately determine the windspeed. Knowing the video's frames per second and watching the segment in question frame by frame wouldn't be necessary, but it could be helpful.

 

[Greho]

I lived in Orlando when Hurricane Charley hit Florida in 2004. That hurricane had a track similar to Ian's. Like Ian seems to be doing, Charley unexpectedly veered east toward Charlotte County and made landfall at Category 3 or 4. If I still lived in Florida, I absolutely would have planned on Ian veering east--not for meteorological reasons but out of experience. Even the much-weakened Charley that hit Orlando caused a lot of damage.

I like Florida, but I'm glad I no longer live so close to a coastline.

Glad to see you corrected the 2014 typo. I remember the Year of Four Hurricanes well, because I was also in Orlando for Charley, and then was down in Lakeland for Frances, Jeanne, and Crazy Ivan. That season was bad enough that I didn't have to look up any of the storm names or spellings, because they are that entrenched in my mind. My parents were among the many Central Floridians re-roofing after Charley, and my college had to shut down for a week mid-semester waiting for power to be restored to the campus.

I don’t want to be nit-picky, but Ivan was 2004. I remember vividly. Our business opening in Pensacola was delayed by almost a year by damage and flooding from Ivan. Blue roofs everywhere. Contractors were swamped with work. I drove across that accursed temporary Escambia Bay bridge more times than I want to remember.

The name “Ivan” was retired after that year.

2004 was a bad hurricane season. I was living in FL at the time and got hit by Francis, which wasn't too strong but was very slow moving and caused a lot of roof damage...two weeks later we got hit by Jeane which due to the already damaged roof on my house destroyed the inside from water damage. Thankfully I didn't stay for that one but when I got back every ceiling in the entire house had collapsed from water getting in.

I lived in Stuart in the mid-1990s. I was heartbroken to see the damage Frances did there.

Edit: I forgot Jeanne came right behind Frances and did even more damage.

 

[Tfargo04]

source: https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/ne ... torm-surge
Winds have gusted from 40 to 80 mph in Key West since Tuesday, where Ian also produced the third highest storm surge in over 100 years.

A​ tornado watch is in effect for central and southern Florida until 5 p.m. EDT.

 

[Rauth85]

Sometimes I idly consider what it would take to build a home that is so strong that the occupant simply doesn't have to worry about an incoming storm of any strength that has been experienced in recorded history, and I wonder how many of the features of such a home will become standard in certain regions.

Granted there are certain overall logistical problems like "if the strongest hurricane in history rolls through your area, and your house is fine, what's the surrounding area going to be like in terms of infrastructure?", but it's an interesting thought exercise.

Like, a castle?

 

[YetAnotherBoris]

Sometimes I idly consider what it would take to build a home that is so strong that the occupant simply doesn't have to worry about an incoming storm of any strength that has been experienced in recorded history, and I wonder how many of the features of such a home will become standard in certain regions.

Granted there are certain overall logistical problems like "if the strongest hurricane in history rolls through your area, and your house is fine, what's the surrounding area going to be like in terms of infrastructure?", but it's an interesting thought exercise.

Stone and concrete walls a couple feet thick; wrought iron gates and window shutters; massive thick stone-paved roof. I believe it's called a "castle" (or, at its more diminutive, maybe a "chateau".) Preferably positioned on a tall hill.

Totally affordable, and very maintainable. Every blue collar family should own one.

 

[ip_what]

I’ve been looking at a lot of maps of the Florida Gulf Coast these last few days trying to get a better sense of where people are and how bad it is going to be since my in laws live in St. Pete’s. Fortunately it looks like their property is going to escape the worst of it (and they’ve evacuated), but man, Cape Coral is probably just going to be gone.

Off topic, but I fell down a bit of a rabbit hole looking at satellite maps of the Naples area. Locals probably know this story, but there’s a whole city-sized grid of roads just east of Naples clearly visible on aerial maps with a few hilarious Google street views available. Turns out it was a 90 square mile real estate scam/environmental disaster. These brothers in the 50’s mostly drained this huge chunk of the Everglades built a ton of (shitty) roads, sold off lots, and then just never built any houses. I guess I never realized how far back the history of Florida men went. Development/scam was called Golden Gate Estates, if anyone else is looking for a diversion.

Sounds like houston.

OMG what a hell https://www.google.com/maps/place/Golde ... 81.6865796

https://www.google.com/maps/place/Golde ... 81.6865796

I knew Florida real estate scams had quite the pedigree, but I didn’t realize and am impressed dumbstruck by the sheer scale and (destructive) effort that went into selling this con.

I’m on mobile and do t want to screw up the link, but check out the street view dot at 126th Ave and Merritt Blvd in the SE corner.

 

[Snark218]

Right now a mere 2 mph separates it from being classified as a cat 5 hurricane. It’s irrelevant. There’s going to be a lot of damage and fatalities. It’s not good.

No there are not. I lived through Hurricane Andrew, which was a far more powerful storm, and that impacted an area far less prepared (structurally) in 1992. It was only directly responsible for 15 deaths. Sadly, that includes the young daughter of family friends who died in her bed when debris was thrown clear through her bedroom wall and into her as she slept.

Every time there’s a hurricane, people act like the sky is falling—especially people who don’t know what it’s really like. As a lifelong Floridian, it gets very old… sure, it’s not ideal, but some of these comments make it seem like people expect it to be an asteroid impact.

As far as Eglin AFB - one of our biggest operational and training bases, billions of dollars worth of infrastructure and equipment, including F-22s that are never being built again - it pretty much was an asteroid impact. You may adopt a jaded attitude if it serves you in some way, but let's not pretend that Florida hasn't gotten its shit rocked by some very big, very intense hurricanes of late, or that more of the same and worse isn't in the can for the next few decades, or that such facts are not major causes of concern on a national level.

 

[sword_9mm]

As for Florida, I dislike their Governor and his BS tactics but I don't wish those in Ian's path any harm. I just wonder how we could capture all that wind energy and water to use elsewhere...

And yet these people are why we have Desantis.. They're why we had Trump, they're why we had Bush..

So because less than half the voters in FL voted for Trump, everyone in FL deserves to get hit with a Cat 4 hurricane?

Perhaps you can expand on this a little more? What are your criteria for who deserves to die and who does not?

That is odd as 'deserve' plays no part in this.

Bad storms suck and can hit folks in a lot of places.

Here we won't see a hurricane but a 3+ tornado/multiples or flooding from rain? sure.

No fun for anyone no matter who you are. Well unless rich and you just bail to house 2 or 3 or wherever.

 

[Rauth85]

Rainfall potential this AM. That's a lot of water.

Yeah for the northern members, an inch of rain usually gives you a foot of snow.

 

[Deleted member 174040]

And, finally, yes, climate change is contributing to the increasing intensity of tropical cyclones.

What do you think of those meteorologists who says it’s more appropriate to speak of it after the hazard has passed?


https://mobile.twitter.com/DrShepherd20 ... 8844227588

https://mobile.twitter.com/DrShepherd20 ... 9618537472

 

[Veritas super omens]

Sometimes I idly consider what it would take to build a home that is so strong that the occupant simply doesn't have to worry about an incoming storm of any strength that has been experienced in recorded history, and I wonder how many of the features of such a home will become standard in certain regions.

Granted there are certain overall logistical problems like "if the strongest hurricane in history rolls through your area, and your house is fine, what's the surrounding area going to be like in terms of infrastructure?", but it's an interesting thought exercise.

Well, first off your bottom floor would need to be 15- 20 feet above the surface. Either that or water tight bulkheads on each door and window,

 

[wallinbl]

Right now a mere 2 mph separates it from being classified as a cat 5 hurricane. It’s irrelevant. There’s going to be a lot of damage and fatalities. It’s not good.

No there are not. I lived through Hurricane Andrew, which was a far more powerful storm, and that impacted an area far less prepared (structurally) in 1992. It was only directly responsible for 15 deaths. Sadly, that includes the young daughter of family friends who died in her bed when debris was thrown clear through her bedroom wall and into her as she slept.

Every time there’s a hurricane, people act like the sky is falling—especially people who don’t know what it’s really like. As a lifelong Floridian, it gets very old… sure, it’s not ideal, but some of these comments make it seem like people expect it to be an asteroid impact.

For some context on this:

Andrew went through an area of relatively inexpensive housing that were not well built, and the destruction was devastating.

Post Andrew, the building codes in Florida were considerably changed. Homes and buildings built since then, or significantly remodeled since then are substantially more hardened. Many municipalities have required meeting the new codes when you make changes to your house (new window, new roof, addition, etc), which has slowly hardened more and more of the houses built before 1992 (Andrew).

It's a factor in why real estate is more expensive here now - many of these things cost a lot more to build to the new codes.

 

[ranthog]

And, finally, yes, climate change is contributing to the increasing intensity of tropical cyclones.

What do you think of those meteorologists who says it’s more appropriate to speak of it after the hazard has passed?


https://mobile.twitter.com/DrShepherd20 ... 8844227588

People need to be told the truth about the storms, and for many during the storm may be the only time to tell them what the effect of climate change is on storms like these.

It would probably be in poor taste to get political, but you can't let the well known liberal bias of reality get in the way of discussing the storm honestly.

Edit To be clear, obviously communicating the threat has to be priority one. However, the type of coverage you're going to see of this on most networks is going to give you plenty of time to also discuss the other aspects.

 

[Qyygle]

No there are not. I lived through Hurricane Andrew, which was a far more powerful storm, and that impacted an area far less prepared (structurally) in 1992. It was only directly responsible for 15 deaths. Sadly, that includes the young daughter of family friends who died in her bed when debris was thrown clear through her bedroom wall and into her as she slept.

Every time there’s a hurricane, people act like the sky is falling—especially people who don’t know what it’s really like. As a lifelong Floridian, it gets very old… sure, it’s not ideal, but some of these comments make it seem like people expect it to be an asteroid impact.

From the article alone, it's noted there are three things worrying about Ian: wind, storm surge, and rain.
Andrew hit as a Cat5, but brought mainly high winds, with little storm surge or significant rainfall, and it crossed Florida in 4 hours.

I don't think your experience is comparable

 

[angrydurf]

I would try to re-evaluate my online life if I got off on kicking people when they were down, even if I felt like they sort of asked for it.

Even if it were justified, you might think you can keep that corrosive emotion tightly localized in yourself, but I don't think you can.

Kick them, no. Consistently remind them of what they vote for, yes. Especially when the consequences are about to hit them like a train. Otherwise, they will forget.

DeSantis won his last election in 2018 by 0.04% of the vote. Despite the documented voter suppression (discarded absentee ballots, polling place relocations and shutdowns, voter roll purges etc) he won by 0.04%. Best case scenario a razor slim majority elected him. More likely a small but protected minority did. The state legislature is exceptionally gerrymandered giving outsized power to conservatives as well.

So "they" didn't vote for this. Be better.

 

[arcite]

Can any increase building standards improve survivability of being located on a coastline facing a 12 foot total surge?....

 

[YetAnotherBoris]

And, finally, yes, climate change is contributing to the increasing intensity of tropical cyclones.

What do you think of those meteorologists who says it’s more appropriate to speak of it after the hazard has passed?


https://mobile.twitter.com/DrShepherd20 ... 8844227588

Of course. We don't talk about guns during mass shootings; we don't talk about fossil fuel externalities during oil spills, and we sure as hell don't talk about climate change during hurricanes. I mean, what sort of an insensitive jackass would talk about relevant things at appropriate times?

 

[bryanlarsen]

directly quoting from the article:

As a forecaster you worry about three primary threats from hurricanes—strong winds, storm surge, and inland rainfall.

Well yes. But my question is, why is this particular hurricane somehow different in these threat assessments to the essentially yearly hits that Florida takes? Why would the storm surge be worse? Why would the rainfall be worse?

Why is this particular storm exceptional, and of particular interest to me is whether these exceptions are part of any evolving patterns, or just freak bad luck? Because meteorologists have started calling "once in a several-century storms" EVERY YEAR for like the last half decade. So either their models aren't very good at statistics (unlikely) or something not included in standard models is changing, and so what (specifically, not just generically global warming) is changing about these storms that is making this the new normal?

In no particular order: the rainfall is going to be worse because the storm lacks steering currents, so rather than zipping through, it's going to do a mini-Harvey and move very slowly along its track. The slower it moves, the more rainfall it dumps.

Storm surge is driven primarily by wind, and geography plays a role. Tropical cyclones rotate counterclockwise, and so they have a "good side" and a "bad side"—the part that sweeps in from the water drags more surge in with it. With Ian, the "bad side" is the southern-ish side of the storm, as the counterclockwise circulation pulls water along over land. The area with the 12-16ft forecasted surge is on the "bad side" and is the recipient of bad luck and strong winds.

The cyclone's winds themselves are a function of lots of things, including how much wind shear exists along the thing's path, because wind shear helps slow down cyclone organization. But the major factor that drives the winds is the heat of the water, and the gulf in September is basically the temperature of a warm bathtub. This can help trigger an effect called rapid intensification, which is IIRC what Ian has gone through.

So, the rainfall/wind/storm surge factors are interlinked, but require lots of bad luck to all be severe at the same time. In most cases, either there's an intensity falloff in winds that damps down the surge as the thing tracks toward land, or the track itself turns out to be aimed such that the nearest population centers aren't on the "bad" side of the storm.

And, finally, yes, climate change is contributing to the increasing intensity of tropical cyclones.

So to over-summarize badly: unlucky geography, lack of steering currents, and high intensity.

The high intensity is likely more common because of climate change, but the sea levels have not yet risen enough to have a noticeable impact on geography. What about the lack of steering currents? Is that likely to become more common because of climate change?

 

[Greho]

Sometimes I idly consider what it would take to build a home that is so strong that the occupant simply doesn't have to worry about an incoming storm of any strength that has been experienced in recorded history, and I wonder how many of the features of such a home will become standard in certain regions.

Granted there are certain overall logistical problems like "if the strongest hurricane in history rolls through your area, and your house is fine, what's the surrounding area going to be like in terms of infrastructure?", but it's an interesting thought exercise.

Well, first off your bottom floor would need to be 15- 20 feet above the surface. Either that or water tight bulkheads on each door and window,

Or you can do this, because it already exists.
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/14/us/h ... house.html

This house is now legendary in our neck of the woods.. er, beach.

 

[lordcheeto]

I want to dunk on DeSantis as much as the next guy, but we can do that in a way that will help. How about organizing a migrant workforce to assist with cleanup and relief efforts?

 

[Justin Credible]

It's mind boggling how a storm can tighten up and intensify in just the span of 24 hours.

 

[Frodo Douchebaggins]

Sometimes I idly consider what it would take to build a home that is so strong that the occupant simply doesn't have to worry about an incoming storm of any strength that has been experienced in recorded history, and I wonder how many of the features of such a home will become standard in certain regions.

Granted there are certain overall logistical problems like "if the strongest hurricane in history rolls through your area, and your house is fine, what's the surrounding area going to be like in terms of infrastructure?", but it's an interesting thought exercise.

Stone and concrete walls a couple feet thick; wrought iron gates and window shutters; massive thick stone-paved roof. I believe it's called a "castle" (or, at its more diminutive, maybe a "chateau".) Preferably positioned on a tall hill.

Totally affordable, and very maintainable. Every blue collar family should own one.

Basically, yeah, but I figure keeping it single-story would reduce the loads it needs to withstand, no?

I was thinking poured reinforced concrete exterior walls and roof, storm shutters to protect the multi-pane windows, completely watertight doors, etc, but also a battery array in a fire-proof room.

Solar panels conceptually, but those need a way to be protected from flying debris and/or have a diesel generator for backup if they're damaged.

What's interesting is that the same thing that you build to withstand the storm of the century feels like it's got a lot in common with the place you build to withstand wildfires.

 

[gmerrick]

Stay safe folks.

The Canadian Atlantic provinces are still bailing out from Fiona. PEI has 80% power loss. Nova Scotia is around 49% still and NL got hammered with houses being washed out to sea.

All the big telcos have said they will ignore data overages until things get restored.

And tropical storm Fiona continued northeast to the coast of Greenland. Greenland!

Dang didn't realize that. I know that Fiona was supposed to be a sub tropical storm but it met up with a buddy and Fiona went super saian.

To put Fiona in perspective the highest recorded peak hust was 179Km/h in Arisaig Nova Scotia. Which is around 110miles per hour.

 

[Uragan]

Stay safe folks.

The Canadian Atlantic provinces are still bailing out from Fiona. PEI has 80% power loss. Nova Scotia is around 49% still and NL got hammered with houses being washed out to sea.

All the big telcos have said they will ignore data overages until things get restored.

And tropical storm Fiona continued northeast to the coast of Greenland. Greenland!

Dang didn't realize that. I know that Fiona was supposed to be a sub tropical storm but it met up with a buddy and Fiona went super saian.

To put Fiona in perspective the highest recorded peak hust was 179Km/h in Arisaig Nova Scotia. Which is around 110miles per hour.

Yeah... things suck up here in Atlantic Canada.

What happened with Fiona just happened to coincide with NS Power trying to justify an 11% rate increase to customers. They're probably going to try and say "See! If we had more money, the power outages would have been less," even though they said that things would be better after Dorian. (They aren't.) NS Power is absolute shite. The province should make it a public utility. (They won't though.)

 

[ranthog]

Sometimes I idly consider what it would take to build a home that is so strong that the occupant simply doesn't have to worry about an incoming storm of any strength that has been experienced in recorded history, and I wonder how many of the features of such a home will become standard in certain regions.

Granted there are certain overall logistical problems like "if the strongest hurricane in history rolls through your area, and your house is fine, what's the surrounding area going to be like in terms of infrastructure?", but it's an interesting thought exercise.

Stone and concrete walls a couple feet thick; wrought iron gates and window shutters; massive thick stone-paved roof. I believe it's called a "castle" (or, at its more diminutive, maybe a "chateau".) Preferably positioned on a tall hill.

Totally affordable, and very maintainable. Every blue collar family should own one.

Basically, yeah, but I figure keeping it single-story would reduce the loads it needs to withstand, no?

I was thinking poured reinforced concrete exterior walls and roof, storm shutters to protect the multi-pane windows, completely watertight doors, etc, but also a battery array in a fire-proof room.

Solar panels conceptually, but those need a way to be protected from flying debris and/or have a diesel generator for backup if they're damaged.

What's interesting is that the same thing that you build to withstand the storm of the century feels like it's got a lot in common with the place you build to withstand wildfires.

Not really? If you want to build a place to withstand wildfires you primarily are going to focus on the area around the home, rather than the home itself. This isn't something we actually do very well in wildfire prone areas, which is why fires do so much damage.

There are some things you do need to do to your home, but they're much more limited than trying to survive a hurricane.

 

[Happy Medium]

In no particular order: the rainfall is going to be worse because the storm lacks steering currents, so rather than zipping through, it's going to do a mini-Harvey and move very slowly along its track. The slower it moves, the more rainfall it dumps.

Storm surge is driven primarily by wind, and geography plays a role. Tropical cyclones rotate counterclockwise, and so they have a "good side" and a "bad side"—the part that sweeps in from the water drags more surge in with it. With Ian, the "bad side" is the southern-ish side of the storm, as the counterclockwise circulation pulls water along over land. The area with the 12-16ft forecasted surge is on the "bad side" and is the recipient of bad luck and strong winds.

The cyclone's winds themselves are a function of lots of things, including how much wind shear exists along the thing's path, because wind shear helps slow down cyclone organization. But the major factor that drives the winds is the heat of the water, and the gulf in September is basically the temperature of a warm bathtub. This can help trigger an effect called rapid intensification, which is IIRC what Ian has gone through.

So, the rainfall/wind/storm surge factors are interlinked, but require lots of bad luck to all be severe at the same time. In most cases, either there's an intensity falloff in winds that damps down the surge as the thing tracks toward land, or the track itself turns out to be aimed such that the nearest population centers aren't on the "bad" side of the storm.

And, finally, yes, climate change is contributing to the increasing intensity of tropical cyclones.

Excellent explanation! Thanks! So at least 2 of these 4 factors seem to be influenced by climate change. What that means (just thinking through my own thought process) is that with the "default" changing to slower, higher intensity storms because of climate change, we now have much more likelihood of a just bad luck stormfall location causing much more destruction, than in the past.

 

[Snark218]

It's mind boggling how a storm can tighten up and intensify in just the span of 24 hours.

This is the meteorological equivalent of Mike Tyson cranking back for that famous right uppercut.

 

[Frodo Douchebaggins]

Sometimes I idly consider what it would take to build a home that is so strong that the occupant simply doesn't have to worry about an incoming storm of any strength that has been experienced in recorded history, and I wonder how many of the features of such a home will become standard in certain regions.

Granted there are certain overall logistical problems like "if the strongest hurricane in history rolls through your area, and your house is fine, what's the surrounding area going to be like in terms of infrastructure?", but it's an interesting thought exercise.

Stone and concrete walls a couple feet thick; wrought iron gates and window shutters; massive thick stone-paved roof. I believe it's called a "castle" (or, at its more diminutive, maybe a "chateau".) Preferably positioned on a tall hill.

Totally affordable, and very maintainable. Every blue collar family should own one.

Basically, yeah, but I figure keeping it single-story would reduce the loads it needs to withstand, no?

I was thinking poured reinforced concrete exterior walls and roof, storm shutters to protect the multi-pane windows, completely watertight doors, etc, but also a battery array in a fire-proof room.

Solar panels conceptually, but those need a way to be protected from flying debris and/or have a diesel generator for backup if they're damaged.

What's interesting is that the same thing that you build to withstand the storm of the century feels like it's got a lot in common with the place you build to withstand wildfires.

Not really? If you want to build a place to withstand wildfires you primarily are going to focus on the area around the home, rather than the home itself. This isn't something we actually do very well in wildfire prone areas, which is why fires do so much damage.

Sure, prevention is the better solution, but I'm just thinking that if you did have the worst-case scenario situation…

 

[Justin Credible]

Stay safe folks.

The Canadian Atlantic provinces are still bailing out from Fiona. PEI has 80% power loss. Nova Scotia is around 49% still and NL got hammered with houses being washed out to sea.

All the big telcos have said they will ignore data overages until things get restored.

Even in the face of adversity those hardy newfies still find a reason to smile!

 

[Uragan]

Sometimes I idly consider what it would take to build a home that is so strong that the occupant simply doesn't have to worry about an incoming storm of any strength that has been experienced in recorded history, and I wonder how many of the features of such a home will become standard in certain regions.

Granted there are certain overall logistical problems like "if the strongest hurricane in history rolls through your area, and your house is fine, what's the surrounding area going to be like in terms of infrastructure?", but it's an interesting thought exercise.

Stone and concrete walls a couple feet thick; wrought iron gates and window shutters; massive thick stone-paved roof. I believe it's called a "castle" (or, at its more diminutive, maybe a "chateau".) Preferably positioned on a tall hill.

Totally affordable, and very maintainable. Every blue collar family should own one.

Basically, yeah, but I figure keeping it single-story would reduce the loads it needs to withstand, no?

I was thinking poured reinforced concrete exterior walls and roof, storm shutters to protect the multi-pane windows, completely watertight doors, etc, but also a battery array in a fire-proof room.

Solar panels conceptually, but those need a way to be protected from flying debris and/or have a diesel generator for backup if they're damaged.

What's interesting is that the same thing that you build to withstand the storm of the century feels like it's got a lot in common with the place you build to withstand wildfires.

Not really? If you want to build a place to withstand wildfires you primarily are going to focus on the area around the home, rather than the home itself. This isn't something we actually do very well in wildfire prone areas, which is why fires do so much damage.

There are some things you do need to do to your home, but they're much more limited than trying to survive a hurricane.

What are you talking about? The Finnish protect themselves from forest fires with excellent forest management. I hear they rake their forests clear of debris. Maybe we should take after them.

/s

 

[arcite]

Also, King tides;

What is king tide? King tide is when the tides are at the highest in the season. These high tides are a natural occurrence during new and full moons but are exacerbated by climate change. These tides can push sea levels a foot or two higher than normal, which causes flooding in low-lying spots along the east coast, like Miami. How could Ian impact king tide? While Ian isn’t projected to directly hit South Florida, the region will likely be impacted by the storm, including flooding exacerbated by king tide.

Read more at: https://www.miamiherald.com/news/weathe ... rylink=cpy

 

[ranthog]

Sometimes I idly consider what it would take to build a home that is so strong that the occupant simply doesn't have to worry about an incoming storm of any strength that has been experienced in recorded history, and I wonder how many of the features of such a home will become standard in certain regions.

Granted there are certain overall logistical problems like "if the strongest hurricane in history rolls through your area, and your house is fine, what's the surrounding area going to be like in terms of infrastructure?", but it's an interesting thought exercise.

Stone and concrete walls a couple feet thick; wrought iron gates and window shutters; massive thick stone-paved roof. I believe it's called a "castle" (or, at its more diminutive, maybe a "chateau".) Preferably positioned on a tall hill.

Totally affordable, and very maintainable. Every blue collar family should own one.

Basically, yeah, but I figure keeping it single-story would reduce the loads it needs to withstand, no?

I was thinking poured reinforced concrete exterior walls and roof, storm shutters to protect the multi-pane windows, completely watertight doors, etc, but also a battery array in a fire-proof room.

Solar panels conceptually, but those need a way to be protected from flying debris and/or have a diesel generator for backup if they're damaged.

What's interesting is that the same thing that you build to withstand the storm of the century feels like it's got a lot in common with the place you build to withstand wildfires.

Not really? If you want to build a place to withstand wildfires you primarily are going to focus on the area around the home, rather than the home itself. This isn't something we actually do very well in wildfire prone areas, which is why fires do so much damage.

Sure, prevention is the better solution, but I'm just thinking that if you did have the worst-case scenario situation…

I'd assume that everything you're doing to build a home to resist forest fires counts as prevention.

 

[PhaseShifter]

I don’t want to be nit-picky, but Ivan was 2004. I remember vividly. Our business opening in Pensacola was delayed by almost a year by damage and flooding from Ivan. Blue roofs everywhere. Contractors were swamped with work. I drove across that accursed temporary Escambia Bay bridge more times than I want to remember.

The name “Ivan” was retired after that year.

Ivan was one of those fast-moving hurricanes that almost made it to Tennesee as a tropical storm.

I remember watching it blow through North Alabama, and thinking "Thank God that's over" when it passed. I remember it continued to move north and weaken as most central Gulf hurricanes do, so I quit paying attention as it progressed into more northern states.

I was confused as hell when it started appearing in the news again a week or so later. That had to be the strangest track of any hurricane I can remember.

 

[Veritas super omens]

Sometimes I idly consider what it would take to build a home that is so strong that the occupant simply doesn't have to worry about an incoming storm of any strength that has been experienced in recorded history, and I wonder how many of the features of such a home will become standard in certain regions.

Granted there are certain overall logistical problems like "if the strongest hurricane in history rolls through your area, and your house is fine, what's the surrounding area going to be like in terms of infrastructure?", but it's an interesting thought exercise.

Stone and concrete walls a couple feet thick; wrought iron gates and window shutters; massive thick stone-paved roof. I believe it's called a "castle" (or, at its more diminutive, maybe a "chateau".) Preferably positioned on a tall hill.

Totally affordable, and very maintainable. Every blue collar family should own one.

Basically, yeah, but I figure keeping it single-story would reduce the loads it needs to withstand, no?

I was thinking poured reinforced concrete exterior walls and roof, storm shutters to protect the multi-pane windows, completely watertight doors, etc, but also a battery array in a fire-proof room.

Solar panels conceptually, but those need a way to be protected from flying debris and/or have a diesel generator for backup if they're damaged.

What's interesting is that the same thing that you build to withstand the storm of the century feels like it's got a lot in common with the place you build to withstand wildfires.

Not really? If you want to build a place to withstand wildfires you primarily are going to focus on the area around the home, rather than the home itself. This isn't something we actually do very well in wildfire prone areas, which is why fires do so much damage.

There are some things you do need to do to your home, but they're much more limited than trying to survive a hurricane.

What are you talking about? The Finnish protect themselves from forest fires with excellent forest management. I hear they rake their forests clear of debris. Maybe we should take after them.

/s

Maybe we can get the to Finnish rake California?


/J