I guess I don't get where you're coming from on this at all.
Uber sold off their self-driving stake. Apple is out. Cruise / GM quit the field. Tesla has yet to deliver and probably never will. So that really just leaves Waymo. And well.... they still have
lots of problems.
I'm not sure where you are getting that 25 million miles number from for Waymo. This is what I'm seeing for California.
And just for comparison, based on
2019 data, there are about 350 billion miles traveled by all vehicles on California roads. So that means self driving Waymo cars are covering less than 0.001% of them given that not all their vehicles are fully driverless.
They've been doing fully self-driving cars on public roads since 2015 – almost a decade.
And my point is that this problem is
far from being solved after massive amounts of investment, research, development, etc. Many of the biggest names (with large war chests) have abandoned it entirely. So, again, this is still
easier than AGI would be, and yet people are hyping its (AGI) arrival in 'a few thousand days.'
It's complete and utter bullshit. And the longer these estimations remain disconnected from reality and the hype bubble continues to be inflated, the more dangerous it becomes not just for the tech industry, but also the economy writ large.
There needs to be a serious discussion about whether we even have
general intelligence at all given how much everyone is buying into the hype.
The creator of ChatGPT, OpenAI, is teaming up with another US tech giant, a Japanese investment firm and an Emirati sovereign wealth fund to build $500 billion of artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure in the United States.
Insanity.
How does this relate to Apple? They gave up on their self-driving project. Out. Done. Most likely Tim Cook finally took a hard look at the numbers, the environment, the development pace, and said, enough is enough. Good.
Level 3 driver assist. Sure. Great. Largely functional and problem free. But level 5, fully autonomous? Nope.
Apple has, unfortunately, partially embraced the AI hype cycle. They've been more conservative than their competitors, absolutely. But unlike Project Titan, which lived and died in (relative) secrecy, the public at large has had Apple Intelligence foisted upon them.
Most of the use cases they have done so far will definitely see improvement over time, but there is no path to AGI from the models / paradigm they are using now. Furthermore, while Apple Maps was half-baked upon release, it is solid after more than ten years of work. Siri has been around almost as long, yet remains quite poor. That does not bode well.
Which is more dangerous? Spending $500 billion and succeeding ... or spending that amount (and possibly more) and failing? Personally, I think either path is equally terrible (at those eye-watering sums), but that's veering way, way off into the woods, much farther than I've already taken this thread.