🦄 The Casual 2024 Presidential Election

[teleos]

I'm not looking at polls anymore, just votes now.

I'm of course very happy to see your numbers, but isn't it true that the early voters are historically mostly Democrats?

 

[Happysin]

I'm of course very happy to see your numbers, but isn't it true that the early voters are historically mostly Democrats?

Yes, and there's a lot of evidence that the voting restrictions are backfiring on Republicans, that aren't expecting them, where Democrats are.

I don't know if that changes things yet. But it's a different expectation.

 

[CatBus]

Early voting continues to suggest that Dems are going to win the battlegrounds, except for Arizona and Nevada. By gender and party affiliation, the numbers are optimistic.

I wouldn't rule Nevada out. Clark County Democrats do a ton of in-person Election Day voting, and Nevada is a weird state in general. It will be tight though, either way, and I agree Arizona is seeming to drift away (but not for the Senate seat!), as far as I can tell. I'm also more baffled than optimistic about North Carolina -- there seems to be a bevy of black swans congregating there, and I have no idea what to make of them. They're in my Harris column right now too, but with a resigned shrug that some things are just unknowable. Georgia, my hopes and dreams are about Georgia. Right now in my Harris column, and don't ever change.

Florida cast almost 11m votes in 2020, so this gap is easy to make up for the GOP, but it also means the wind is not at their back. I'm not holding out for a flip, but results like this probably mean the Trump campaign is going to have to spend money in places they don't want to right at the end of the election.

I think Florida is likely out of reach for both President and Senate, but a generally more Democratic electorate could claw back at least one House seat there, despite the current gerrymander. And each flipped House seat is extremely valuable -- there's only 20-odd seats that even CAN flip, and some could flip the other direction even in an otherwise strong Democratic year.

 

[poochyena]

I'm of course very happy to see your numbers, but isn't it true that the early voters are historically mostly Democrats?

Yes, thats why its pointless looking at early votes since its not a random sample.

 

[The Sheep Look Up]

Wish you had posted this two days ago because I would've written in The Sheep Look Up for president. Sadly, I already dropped off my ballot.

Unfortunately, while more suited than one of the candidates, a herd of sheep doesn't meet the qualifications to run for president. Which is a shame; I believe my policy proposal of designating the South Lawn as a grazing area really resonates with the wider public.

 

[AdrianS]

Unfortunately, while more suited than one of the candidates, a herd of sheep doesn't meet the qualifications to run for president. Which is a shame; I believe my policy proposal of designating the South Lawn as a grazing area really resonates with the wider public.

Sheep are not the answer.

Alpacas, on the other hand, are bold and will take on any predator to defend their flock.
Biden’s semi-feral dogs had best stay off the lawn.

In 2028, vote for the Alpaca-Sheep ticket: Make America Wooly Again.

 

[Happysin]

Yes, thats why its pointless looking at early votes since its not a random sample.

The worthless word in that phrase is "historically". We're having to throw out tons of assumptions about voting, including the Trump campaign having to push against aggressive absentee voting laws, as they realized it might hurt them worse than it would hurt Democrats.

 

[Starbuck79]

Early numbers are in and Harris interview on Fox looks to have 7million+ viewers. Who knows if it actually changed any minds but to hopefully debunked the "she needs a teleprompter to talk in complete sentences" nonsense.

 

[The Sheep Look Up]

I'm also more baffled than optimistic about North Carolina -- there seems to be a bevy of black swans congregating there, and I have no idea what to make of them.

Reminder: the top three slots on the NC ballot went Trump - Cooper - Robinson in 2020. We generate some weird outcomes.

VOTE JEFF JACKSON FOR ATTORNEY GENERAL​

 

[charliebird]

Early numbers are in and Harris interview on Fox looks to have 7million+ viewers. Who knows if it actually changed any minds but to hopefully debunked the "she needs a teleprompter to talk in complete sentences" nonsense.

At the very least it might showed Fox viewers that she in fact is not the Antichrist. Or at least had a very good makeup job. In all seriousness many of these viewers live in a media bubble that have them believing some pretty outlandish things about Harris. I honestly think she should consider a weekly appearance on Fox. In 2016 there was a lot of talk about shy Trump voters. Maybe 2024 can be the year of shy Harris voters.

 

[wco81]

That doesn't make him a strong candidate. Just like Biden defeating a historically unpopular incumbent by the narrowest skin of his teeth didn't make Biden a strong candidate.

If Trump were a strong candidate, he'd be able to keep his sh*t together enough to assuage the off-putting impression that he's not a vain, shallow, whiney manchild and then be likely beating Harris by double-digits in the polls. But he can't, because he's an absolutely, atrociously terrible campaiger who can't actually campaign or execute a strategy of anything other than immediate raw impulse.

Biden won by 6-7 million votes out of a total of 156 million cast.

In a pandemic year when Democrats had no GOTV operation or a lot of in-person campaigning.

It's only the Electoral College which made it close.

What should Harris or any candidate have said to counter Trump's lies, continually fact-check him? Not her fault that he's got Fox News and the "mainstream" media is sane washing Trump.

 

[The Sheep Look Up]

At the very least it might showed Fox viewers that she in fact is not the Antichrist. Or at least had a very good makeup jobs.

Cue Jessie Watters running footage through a red filter and reversing the audio. Maybe some photoshopped horns and pointy teeth.

 

[AmanoJyaku]

Sheep are not the answer.

Alpacas, on the other hand, are bold and will take on any predator to defend their flock.
Biden’s semi-feral dogs had best stay off the lawn.

In 2028, vote for the Alpaca-Sheep ticket: Make America Wooly Again.

Caesar says "team llama, no drama". Having met and hugged him, I must vote for him. And that's enough derailing from me.

 

[karolus]

Reminder: the top three slots on the NC ballot went Trump - Cooper - Robinson in 2020. We generate some weird outcomes.

VOTE JEFF JACKSON FOR ATTORNEY GENERAL​

You folks have Mark Robinson. Nuff said.

 

[Macam]

Unfortunately, while more suited than one of the candidates, a herd of sheep doesn't meet the qualifications to run for president. Which is a shame; I believe my policy proposal of designating the South Lawn as a grazing area really resonates with the wider public.

As a textual originalist, I think that's a mistaken view. Sheep have a long tradition and history in the country, and per the NBA vs Air Bud precedent, I think sheep are indeed elgible. Make America Graze Again

 

[Thank You and Best of Luck!]

No, it's because when we talk about elections, we're talking about aggregates.

Except you're not. You're talking about a comparatively tiny sliver of individual voters with individual circumstances that can throw an election one way or another. The last election was decided by a few tens of thousands of votes. It's entirely possible (read: extremely likely) for aggregate metrics over hundreds of millions of people to say nothing useful about and be entirely unrepresentative of the cohort who might swing the election.

Aggregate metrics saying, "The economy is doing great!" isn't a universal statement that is true of all participants in the economy. Many, many of them can be having a very, very bad go of it, and those people are going to be salty about it, and those people can vote.

 

[Thank You and Best of Luck!]

Biden won by 6-7 million votes out of a total of 156 million cast.

In a pandemic year when Democrats had no GOTV operation or a lot of in-person campaigning.

It's only the Electoral College which made it close.

Good point, it was only by the hair of his chinny chin chin in literally the only criteria that matters at all.

 

[ProphetM]

Nevada has under 10k votes registered. Not a good baseline on that yet.

Yes, we only got our ballots starting last weekend, and early voting hasn't even started yet. Current counts are only mail-ins that have had time to be received, filled out, mailed back and arrived. We only got ours into the mailbox today.

I wouldn't rule Nevada out. Clark County Democrats do a ton of in-person Election Day voting, and Nevada is a weird state in general.

Yes, we are. We might even pass ranked-choice voting this time.

I believe my policy proposal of designating the South Lawn as a grazing area really resonates with the wider public.

Some say the adorable White House sheep would surely have guaranteed Wilson a third term if he hadn't had a stroke.

 

[The Aloof Alot]

People seem to be willing to go to great lengths to ... [checks notes] ... prevent a stolen election.

https://www.wired.com/story/dhs-election-denial-violent-attacks/
Tell me you can't win a fair election without telling me you can't win a fair election.

Nothing says "Democracy, now!" like bombing a ballot box. /s

 

[Stern]

Biden really should've created lasting peace in the Middle East for the first time in recorded history. In one term.

Why didn't he? Who knows.

Because Jared Kushner had already fixed the problem.

 

[wallinbl]

Because Jared Kushner had already fixed the problem.

The entire crux of the reason the GOP pulls more votes than their actual performance warrants - they're willing to just keep lying about what they do and how well it works. Tell people you're helping them enough, and they'll believe you, even if you're actually hurting them at the same time.

 

[Shavano]

As a textual originalist, I think that's a mistaken view. Sheep have a long tradition and history in the country, and per the NBA vs Air Bud precedent, I think sheep are indeed elgible. Make America Graze Again

They have to be thirty five years old though. Not likely you'll find a sheep that old. But a parrot...

 

[Shavano]

Except you're not. You're talking about a comparatively tiny sliver of individual voters with individual circumstances that can throw an election one way or another. The last election was decided by a few tens of thousands of votes. It's entirely possible (read: extremely likely) for aggregate metrics over hundreds of millions of people to say nothing useful about and be entirely unrepresentative of the cohort who might swing the election.

Aggregate metrics saying, "The economy is doing great!" isn't a universal statement that is true of all participants in the economy. Many, many of them can be having a very, very bad go of it, and those people are going to be salty about it, and those people can vote.

I understand. It's only the criteria that you want to talk about that matter. Every other voter matters less because you assume you know how they're going to vote, and whether they're going to vote. But you're mistaken.

 

[NewNinetyNine]

Or, you know, she's running a campaign at 2X speed because that's the time the was given.

This is a non-sequitor. Speed doesn't mean embracing a losing strategy for over half the time and then furiously correcting.

Ideally most of the Biden/Harris lead campaign staff would be fired out of a cannon into the sun after this race, or at least blacklisted. We're in Robbie Mook territory.

 

[wallinbl]

Except you're not. You're talking about a comparatively tiny sliver of individual voters with individual circumstances that can throw an election one way or another. The last election was decided by a few tens of thousands of votes. It's entirely possible (read: extremely likely) for aggregate metrics over hundreds of millions of people to say nothing useful about and be entirely unrepresentative of the cohort who might swing the election.

Aggregate metrics saying, "The economy is doing great!" isn't a universal statement that is true of all participants in the economy. Many, many of them can be having a very, very bad go of it, and those people are going to be salty about it, and those people can vote.

This really isn't how statistics work.

 

[NewNinetyNine]

I understand. It's only the criteria that you want to talk about that matter. Every other voter matters less because you assume you know how they're going to vote, and whether they're going to vote. But you're mistaken.

Huh? He's simply refuting the idea that good aggregate metrics inoculate incumbents against economically dissatisfied voters.

If my wife leaves me, please don't send me a rosy congratulatory card telling me that infidelity is down and marriage longevity is up. It will just salt the wound.

 

[NewNinetyNine]

Arizona Dems have to make up a deficit for sure. I find it odd that Kari Lake is losing between +5 and +12. But Harris is -1.6 right now.

Harris and Biden have been trailing behind state level Dems throughout 2024. Candidates and campaigns matter.

 

[Happysin]

This is a non-sequitor. Speed doesn't mean embracing a losing strategy for over half the time and then furiously correcting.

Ideally most of the Biden/Harris lead campaign staff would be fired out of a cannon into the sun after this race, or at least blacklisted. We're in Robbie Mook territory.

You may not have noticed, but Harris didn't use a lot of Biden's senior campaign staff. That's why the tone was so utterly different. And nothing they've been doing has been flailing. Quite the opposite. They stated their plan and they're running it. Is it perfect? No, of course not. Nothing is. But it's landing with far more hits than misses.

On another note, I voted today. It was much easier and faster than trying on Tuesday.

 

[Thank You and Best of Luck!]

This really isn't how statistics work.

Statistics really isn't how aggregate metrics for the economy work, nor how gerrymandered voting districts and counting their votes work, so I can't make sense out of this sentence.

 

[Jordan83]

This is a non-sequitor. Speed doesn't mean embracing a losing strategy for over half the time and then furiously correcting.

Ideally most of the Biden/Harris lead campaign staff would be fired out of a cannon into the sun after this race, or at least blacklisted. We're in Robbie Mook territory.

What would have been a guaranteed winning strategy for Harris, in the timetable she was given, in the reality she inherited with all the prior events happening exactly as they did culminating in her nomination?

 

[yd]

Yes, thats why its pointless looking at early votes since its not a random sample.

That would be correct, assuming the early vote numbers are similar to recent previous early vote counts. However, IF there are substantially more early votes this time, there is likely information in there and if one assumes that early voters are more likely D's and now there are lot more early votes, one can assume there are lot more votes for Ds currently and possibly coming down the pipe.

 

[karolus]

What would have been a guaranteed winning strategy for Harris, in the timetable she was given, in the reality she inherited with all the prior events happening exactly as they did culminating in her nomination?

Perhaps resurrecting FDR as her running mate?

/poe

 

[Numfuddle]

What I don't understand is the meekness of the Biden administration here. They can ALWAYS halt arms shipments due to "Upsie, clerical error. The export licenses were accidentally redacted" and then delay at absolutely zero political cost.

Zero political cost if you think your large Jewish voter base is stupid

 

[DarthSlack]

What would have been a guaranteed winning strategy for Harris, in the timetable she was given, in the reality she inherited with all the prior events happening exactly as they did culminating in her nomination?

The point is to complain endlessly that Democrats aren't perfect and therefore doomed to eternally inhabit the electoral wilderness. NNN isn't looking for a solution, just for opportunities to complain.

 

[Numfuddle]

Interview with Layla Elabed, one of the leaders of the Uncommitted movement, which decided not to endorse a candidate for president but urged their followers not to enable Trump to win.

Apparently their leaders faced a big backlash.




https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2024/10/kamala-harris-donald-trump-election-israel-michigan.html
She also talks about broader policy goals and the alliances they've made with other activist groups on other issues.



Probably going to be too little, too late.

For most of the year, they've let the rage flow freely and now at the 11th hour, they're worried the voting choices may be counterproductive to their near and long-term goals.

I'm uncommitted to the possibility of being deported or put into a concentration camp is unsurprisingly not a winning strategy.

 

[NewNinetyNine]

Good news: Trump appears to be turning down crucial interviews due to exhaustion.

https://www.politico.com/live-updat...alysis/trump-skips-another-interview-00184327

Why does this keep happening? Another outlet was recently given an explanation by Trump’s team for why their own interview wasn’t coming to fruition: exhaustion.

The Trump campaign had spent weeks in conversations with The Shade Room, a site that draws a largely young and Black audience — a demographic where Trump has been making inroads. It hosted an interview with Kamala Harris just last week.

But no interview has materialized. As Shade Room staff began feeling that feet were being dragged inside Trump’s campaign, they pressed earlier this week to set a date for a sit-down.

In response, a Trump adviser told Shade Room producers that Trump was “exhausted and refusing [some] interviews but that could change” at any time, according to two people familiar with the conversations.

Trump-supporting rapper Waka Flocka Flame was offered up as an alternative, those two people say.

Trump national press secretary Karoline Leavitt, while making clear she wasn’t part of the back-and-forth for the Shade Room interview, said last night that the idea that Trump was exhausted “is unequivocally false.”

This feels like amateur year for campaigns. Who tells a media outlet that your candidate is too weak and exhausted to interview?

 

[Thank You and Best of Luck!]

I understand. It's only the criteria that you want to talk about that matter. Every other voter matters less because you assume you know how they're going to vote, and whether they're going to vote. But you're mistaken.

No.

There are repeated posts by the same people who keep relentlessly claiming that voters are wrong about their personal sentiments about the economy and then repeatedly use aggregate economic metrics as the evidence of such.

Which is an argument and position that is nonsensical. It is entirely possible and utterly obvious that aggregate metrics can lose essential, valuable context for any subset over which the aggregate was calculated.

It is not a contradiction in the slightest that large numbers of individuals can feel like the economy isn't doing great even if the aggregate metrics say otherwise. For example something as basic as, the underlying cohorts could represent a non-normal distribution for any number of things: debt, savings, income, underemployment, discretionary income, etc. etc. etc. If you had a wonky bimodal distribution, you could have huge majorities of people experiencing hardship while a smaller, but more extremely benefiting cohort drags the aggregate up into “things are awesome!” land.

We already know that wealth distribution in the US is a mess. It’s entirely possible (likely even) that the aggregate numbers for the US economy can look “strong” while the actual distribution of the benefits and thus any individual sentiments about that “strong” economy might feel locally weak.

The US economy is “strong”, yet there are dilapidated, hollowed out communities all over the country. The US economy is “strong”, yet the major growth sector (tech) over the past decade has been, and continues to, undergoing wave after wave of layoffs & downsizings. The US economy is “strong”, yet huge cohorts of people feel like food & shelter have become more and more unaffordable.

Regardless of what the aggregate economic metrics say, not everyone who was aggregated is experiencing what the aggregate indicates. Some of them are having a bad time and some of the people having a bad time are voters. There’s no contradiction, but it keeps being presented as one.

 

[wallinbl]

Statistics really isn't how aggregate metrics for the economy work, nor how gerrymandered voting districts and counting their votes work, so I can't make sense out of this sentence.

You threw out a few things and drew an "extremely likely" conclusion that doesn't follow at all if you look at the statistics, the variables, and the controlling for variables involved.

It's really just not how statistics works at all. It's a bit how the human mind works, but the human mind's intuition is almost orthogonal to the math behind statistics and probability.

 

[GMBigKev]

Good news: Trump appears to be turning down crucial interviews due to exhaustion.

https://www.politico.com/live-updat...alysis/trump-skips-another-interview-00184327

This feels like amateur year for campaigns. Who tells a media outlet that your candidate is too weak and exhausted to interview?

I don't think he ever prepared to have an opponent who was going to be able to make multi-state appearances, interviews at multiple media places, and so on and so forth. Biden was going to be easy to work against cause he wouldn't be able to be as active a campaign

 

[karolus]

I don't think he ever prepared to have an opponent who was going to be able to make multi-state appearances, interviews at multiple media places, and so on and so forth. Biden was going to be easy to work against cause he wouldn't be able to be as active a campaign

Methinks it wasn't just laziness that pushed his campaign on the path of "Biden old," with hopes of securing an easy win. It's becoming more apparent that he's having cognitive issues as well, but weren't as apparent as Biden's. Once a new candidate who didn't have these encumbrances stepped up, there was no Plan B in the works—partly because there's little chance Trump could adapt to it. He's a one-trick-pony, and that has served himself well for decades. With that faltering, and weird running mate, his campaign is essentially stuck in the same box Biden's was in—running with what they have.