🦄 Current Events Monday March 31, 2025 through Sunday April 6, 2025

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I laughed when our copmpany's lead economict posted that the chance of recession was only 10% a few days ago.

The response on LinkedIn was hilarious.

About 25% tariff true beleivers.
Abour 25% partisans arguing with the "haters" and "doomers."
About 50% calling the economist and the other posters nuts.
LinkedIn is for corporate shills. Trump is their god, strategically leveraging novel innovative solutions into new paradigms.
 

Ecmaster76

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DarthSlack

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This atoll has already been a US military base for ~90 years
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Johnston_Atoll

Johnston Island itself is almost entirely developed. Since the article is paywalled I'm not sure if they are planning on siting there or one of the smaller adjacent islands

It was also undeveloped, it was torn down and abandoned many years ago. There's still a footprint there but there would have to be fairly extensive construction before it would be usable again.
 

Papageno

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LinkedIn is for corporate shills. Trump is their god, strategically leveraging novel innovative solutions into new paradigms.

Don't forget about the synergies, "break-it" thinking and the "swarm"!

(I just retired last year from a 29.5 year career at a major company last year and man was that "consultant-driven corporate initiative-of-the-quarter" stuff getting old.)
 
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Auguste_Fivaz

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As usual for Dr. Jill Lapore, she's done some great research, pulling together various sources to examine the nefarious history of Musk's grandfather Joshua Haldeman and his support of a movement called technocracy.
a cowboy, chiropractor, conspiracy theorist and amateur aviator known as the Flying Haldeman. Mr. Musk’s grandfather was also a flamboyant leader of the political movement known as technocracy.
It goes to show that nothing is new, this movement died of its own accord years before it was resurrected by Musk and his compatriots Marc Andreessen et al, who helped him stage the debacle we've just witnessed in DOGE, the death of the hated New Deal.

A good read, full of family secrets and intrigue.

NY Times Gift link: https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/04/...e_code=1.9E4.DNhr.mHjrqFT0gjOy&smid=url-share
 

Macam

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Saw this on the book of faces and thought it perfectly described the new reality:

America is finally being run like a business: a business acquired by private equity that’s being stripped for parts before being liquidated.


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Saw this meme going around (sorry, don't really have a source for it) and....yes.

To add some substance here, Trump is openly bragging about crashing the markets:

Donald Trump is defending his tariff plan with poorly sourced hype videos.

The president shared an X video, a copy of a TikTok post, to his Truth Social account Friday morning calling his economic plans “genius” without much substance. The video starts out by saying Trump is crashing the economy on purpose and that billionaire investor Warren Buffett is praising the president for making “the best economic moves he’s seen in 50 years.”

This isn’t true at all, though. Last month, Buffett openly called Trump’s tariffs “a tax on goods” in an interview.

...

Trump’s video goes on to make several other unsourced claims, including that the Federal Reserve will be forced to slash interest rates in May, allowing trillions of dollars in debt to be refinanced inexpensively. The video also claims that the dollar will be weakened and that mortgage rates will drop, and repeats Trump’s claims that tariffs will compel businesses to build in the U.S. and force farmers to sell more crops stateside as well. There is no indication that any of this will happen. Indeed, Trump is practically begging—or maybe threatening—Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell to slash rates.

Not a chance hell Powell is dropping rates anytime soon. Unfortunately, his term is up in 2026, so I'm sure Tim Pool will be the new Fed Chair nominee or someone along those lines.
 
Every time I've voted it was with my drivers license and that's photo ID. Are there states that don't require it? Or are you trying to do away with mail in voting?
Yes, there are. California is the first that comes to mind. Mail in voting is a whole other can of worms, the security by only signature matching is just not that strong, not saying it can't be made secure though.
 

karolus

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Not a chance hell Powell is dropping rates anytime soon. Unfortunately, his term is up in 2026, so I'm sure Tim Pool will be the new Fed Chair nominee or someone along those lines.

Ironically, Powell is a nominee from Trump 1.0. He’s done an admirable job, considering the circumstances. But you’re right—we’re now in uncharted territory where reasonable decisions apparently don’t apply.
 
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I’m seeing a distressing amount of revisionism and pining for the Trans-Pacific Partnership in the wake of the tariffs and like… as much as the tariffs and economic turmoil right now are bad, the TPP and its effects would have been a different flavor of garbage. The shit that the MPAA and RIAA wanted in that thing which would have expanded the worst of the American copyright system out to the member nations, alongside ISDS and binding protections for corporations and non-binding vague gestures toward good stuff like green energy and Net Neutrality that would never be implemented, painted a clear picture that it was going to be more of the same that we got with FTAA, NAFTA, the WTO, and so forth.

Longtime comic artist and cartoonist John Backderf posted this thread on Bluesky today about how Globalization, the way it killed off unions and enriched the upper class, was a right-wing centerpiece that started with Reagan and Reaganomics. As Backderf put it:
For 4 decades Reaganomics & the Global Economy have been GOP Holy Scripture. With a snap of Trump's tiny fingers, Reaganomics is gone. Now if that had happened in 1982, I would have rejoiced. Or how about reversing course slowly to ease the pain? But no. The dipshit has to blow it all up.

My opinion is that Globalization, as perpetuated by the GOP as well as adopted and supported by Neoliberals, was a disaster as well as a case of politicians full-on lying to large swaths of the American public. It was a disaster that should have been slowly, but deliberately and publicly unwound.
 
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Bardon

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I’m seeing a distressing amount of revisionism and pining for the Trans-Pacific Partnership in the wake of the tariffs and like… as much as the tariffs and economic turmoil right now are bad, the TPP and its effects would have been a different flavor of garbage. The shit that the MPAA and RIAA wanted in that thing which would have expanded the worst of the American copyright system out to the member nations, alongside ISDS and binding protections for corporations and non-binding vague gestures toward good stuff like green energy and Net Neutrality that would never be implemented, painted a clear picture that it was going to be more of the same that we got with FTAA, NAFTA, the WTO, and so forth.

Longtime comic artist and cartoonist John Backderf posted this thread on Bluesky today about how Globalization, the way it killed off unions and enriched the upper class, was a right-wing centerpiece that started with Reagan and Reaganomics. As Backderf put it:


My opinion is that Globalization, as perpetuated by the GOP as well as adopted and supported by Neoliberals, was a disaster as well as a case of politicians full-on lying to large swaths of the American public. It was a disaster that should have been slowly, but deliberately and publicly unwound.
Yeah, the copyright and pharmaceuticals side of the TPP made it pure poison here in Australia. No way were we accepting that.
 

Yagisama

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Source: NY Times

More defiance of court orders.

Brown University Professor Is Deported Despite a Judge’s Order​

Dr. Rasha Alawieh, a kidney transplant specialist and Brown University professor who had a valid visa, was expelled in apparent defiance of a court order.
 

VividVerism

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Wheels Of Confusion

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The US sent a team of disaster assessment experts to Myanmar then fired them all once they were there.


View: https://x.com/LisaDNews/status/1908323619723157521

A source that isn't from the Nazi Bar
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us...-earthquake-zone-ex-official-says-2025-04-05/

BTW, I had Twitter embeds blocked before Musk even made noises about buying it as a matter of my browser's security policies.
Perhaps we should make the effort to find outside links for anything we're linking from Twitter?
Source: NY Times

More defiance of court orders.
Old news but... So when do judges start holding people in contempt, beginning with the government agents represented in the court and working their way up the chain of command, until this unconstitutional abuse stops?
 

Shavano

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A source that isn't from the Nazi Bar
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us...-earthquake-zone-ex-official-says-2025-04-05/

BTW, I had Twitter embeds blocked before Musk even made noises about buying it as a matter of my browser's security policies.
Perhaps we should make the effort to find outside links for anything we're linking from Twitter?

Old news but... So when do judges start holding people in contempt, beginning with the government agents represented in the court and working their way up the chain of command, until this unconstitutional abuse stops?
This week.

https://www.reuters.com/legal/judge...ated-order-not-deport-venezuelans-2025-04-03/
 
D.C. rally draws tens of thousands as Trump protests held across US:

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WASHINGTON—Dozens of protests kicked off around the country Saturday to oppose Trump administration policies that organizers say favor billionaires over everyday people.

Tens of thousands turned out in Washington, D.C., for a “Hands Off” event around the National Mall.

Marchers carried signs that said “Democracy Not Dictatorship,” and “I Heart Federal Workers.”

Pat Adler, a retired school principal, carried a “Deport Nazi Felons” sign.

“I’m 82 years old. I’ve been protesting since the ‘60s—Vietnam War, civil rights, ERA. So I know protest works,” Adler said. “I am appalled at the state of affairs.”

Divorced parents Dan Pierce and Tiffany Edwards-Pierce, both 47, drove two hours from Harrisburg, Pa., with their 18-year-old son to be at the protest.

“Trump is bringing us together,” said Edwards-Pierce, giggling.

“I’m not really a protest guy,” Pierce said, “but it’s important to have your voice heard.”


There's also a corresponding piece, paywalled, she marched against Trump in 2017. Now, she says, ‘just let it all burn.’ Don't have access, but those of you who do, may be interested.

So anyway, people are protesting, but we're nowhere near Tahrir/Maidan Square numbers. It's also buried beneath stories like "Your clothes will be more expensive" because....America (NYT is ignoring things for now).
 

Dano40

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Yes, there are. California is the first that comes to mind. Mail in voting is a whole other can of worms, the security by only signature matching is just not that strong, not saying it can't be made secure though.

California is not part of the deep south where there is a tradition of suppressing the vote, most of the states that go out of their way are looking to strike off citizens from the right to vote.
 

DarthSlack

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Yes, there are. California is the first that comes to mind. Mail in voting is a whole other can of worms, the security by only signature matching is just not that strong, not saying it can't be made secure though.

And the evidence for mail in voting fraud is? Heck, point to instances of any kind of voting fraud that actually matter. Because when people actually look for voter fraud, they find almost none.
 
Yeah, the copyright and pharmaceuticals side of the TPP made it pure poison here in Australia. No way were we accepting that.
Cory Doctorow also put out a piece about Free Trade on April 2nd. Which also links to a piece on The Sling that was published the same day.

Cory uses the article by Mark Glick and Gabriel Lozada to explain that some tariffs can be good, with the right amount of industrial policy, social safety nets, and retraining.

Now, just because some tariffs are beneficial, it doesn't follow that all tariffs are beneficial. When the "Asian Tiger" countries were undergoing rapid industrialization and lifting billions of people out of poverty, they did so with tariffs – but also with extensive industrial policy and direct investment in critical state industries (Biden was the first president in generations to pursue industrial policy, albeit a modest and small one, which Trump nevertheless dismantled).

Trump is doing mirror-world tariffs: tariffs without industrial policy, tariffs without social safety nets, tariffs without retraining, tariffs without any strategic underpinning. These tariffs will crash the US economy and will create calamitous effects around the world
 

Shavano

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California is not part of the deep south where there is a tradition of suppressing the vote, most of the states that go out of their way are looking to strike off citizens from the right to vote.
That's happening right now in North Carolina. It's "prove you are who you say you are or we're striking your vote you already cast and we already counted" because we don't like the way an election turned out.
 

Shavano

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And the evidence for mail in voting fraud is? Heck, point to instances of any kind of voting fraud that actually matter. Because when people actually look for voter fraud, they find almost none.
And more often than not, it's Republicans.
 

QtDevSvr

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Trump fires U.S.A.I.D. workers on ground in Myanmar:
The firings, done Friday while the workers were in the rubble-strewn city of Mandalay, raise doubts about Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s stated commitment to continuing some humanitarian and crisis aid even as the aid organization, the U.S. Agency for International Development, is dismantled by the Trump administration.

More than 3,300 people were killed and more than 4,800 injured in Myanmar, according to Burmese government estimates. A tropical storm was lashing much of the country on Saturday, with heavy rain and winds leading to flooding. The Trump administration has been criticized by Democratic lawmakers and others for what they called its paltry response.

The three experienced aid workers got termination emails addressed specifically to them just days after arriving in Myanmar, said the three people with knowledge of the situation, who are current and former U.S.A.I.D. officials. They spoke on the condition of anonymity to avoid retribution.
 

BigP

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I’m probably about to write way too many words as preface for what I really came here to post. It's a known failing of mine.

The tariffs announced this week are the dumbest, most asinine, most magnificently reckless, etc. economic/foreign-policy move in this nation’s history and the methodology by which they were derived is possibly even more intellectually bankrupt and incandescently stupid. I am trying to rein myself in a bit but Roget himself doesn’t have enough words for what I think about all this.

I’ve been happily signed up to the Heatmap organization’s newsletter for a while now. They cover the renewable energy transition primarily. Yesterday they sent a full length article about the potential effects of the tariffs on the Oil and Gas industry. If you follow that link you may need to create an account to read the whole thing but don’t feel obligated: one of the benefits of me writing so much is that you shouldn’t have to!

Trump's energy policy, like all the others, is completely incoherent. He wants to empower O&G again by opening up land for drilling again and fast tracking permits. Drill, baby, drill! The earlier tariffs on steel have increased the cost of new tubular stock (liner casing and drill stems) by about 30% already. This is not the end of the world since all of those get reused quite extensively from well to well. Still a pain point.

But! He also wants oil prices to be cheap for consumers. To that end apparently he's been pushing OPEC to increase production and according to the newsletter, "early Thursday morning, the oil cartel OPEC+ announced that it would boost oil production by 411,000 barrels a day next month — far more than expected — which will essentially compress three months of supply increases into one." Now, I have absolutely NOTHING to base this on but I'm interpreting this as some malicious compliance. :devilish: Who knows, though!

Anyway, oil futures for West Texas Intermediate dropped from $71.71 to $61.99 by the close of yesterday. 14% in two days is an unusually large drop, shall we say. In general terms, new wells are cheapest to drill in the Permian Basin and while every well is different, the break-even oil price these days is mid-$60's. :eng101:

These new tariffs, if they precipitate a global recession as pretty much any working economist who hasn't drunk themselves into sweet oblivion by now expects, will cause aggregate demand of all sorts to crater which would likely cause compounding effects for energy demand. I guess that's another way to make it cheap for consumers! But nobody's going to want to drill any new wells. Oops!

I grew up in Midland, Texas, the heart of the Permian Basin and worked for a local O&G company for eight years earlier in my career. The people I worked with and went to church with and bumped into at the grocery store (HEB, buddy! Wooo!) pretty much all fell into whatever stereotype you're thinking of now. In general the only other political misfits I encountered were those of us who did a lot of community theater but even there the Majority had a near majority. I maintain my Facebook account only to keep a last, tenuous connection to that crew years after getting yeeted out into the world. I don't add new friends (not that I make many these days, but still) and I really hate that damn app most of the time.

If I were a little less conflict-averse and a little more willing to torch some bridges, this is what I'd be posting there, so instead, I offer it to y'all:

Thoughts and prayers for my family and friends in Midland

As much as I love and miss everyone, you dumb motherfuckers voted for everything that is now about to happen to you. It's okay, you can tell yourselves you didn't know what you were doing. A lot of us knew exactly what could happen, though.
If you think the busts of 2009 and 2014 were bad, just wait. Those were just run-of-the-mill market corrections that we all think we're accustomed to. This time you've been deliberately shoved off the financial cliff by His Royal Orange Highness who then immediately fucked off to go golfing for a long weekend.
Every one of you ought to be calling and raising unholy Hell with Pfluger, Cornyn and Cruz every single day. It's literally your only hope.
And next time, try voting for someone who actually gives a shit about you.
And don't forget to look into Enhanced Geothermal Energy, it might be the way you get to keep your jobs for the next little while.

Scorn and hisses!
P.
 

DarthSlack

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But! He also wants oil prices to be cheap for consumers. To that end apparently he's been pushing OPEC to increase production and according to the newsletter, "early Thursday morning, the oil cartel OPEC+ announced that it would boost oil production by 411,000 barrels a day next month — far more than expected — which will essentially compress three months of supply increases into one." Now, I have absolutely NOTHING to base this on but I'm interpreting this as some malicious compliance. :devilish: Who knows, though!

Anyway, oil futures for West Texas Intermediate dropped from $71.71 to $61.99 by the close of yesterday. 14% in two days is an unusually large drop, shall we say. In general terms, new wells are cheapest to drill in the Permian Basin and while every well is different, the break-even oil price these days is mid-$60's. :eng101:

You would think we would have learned by now, because this is not the first time the Saudis have played this particular game with production and prices. Their goal is always the same, drive the price to where US production is not economical so they can maintain their stranglehold. But the Trump administration is far too stupid to see what's going on.

Or that to break the Saudi stranglehold, the best strategy is to go green and significantly reduce the market for oil.
 

BigP

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You would think we would have learned by now, because this is not the first time the Saudis have played this particular game with production and prices. Their goal is always the same, drive the price to where US production is not economical so they can maintain their stranglehold. But the Trump administration is far too stupid to see what's going on.

Or that to break the Saudi stranglehold, the best strategy is to go green and significantly reduce the market for oil.
For real.

I was always the token hippy-dippy treehugger in the office but I've always felt that the entire industry needed to actually try to live up to their branding as "Energy" companies. STOP SUCKING ON THE OIL TEAT AND DIVERSIFY YOU DUMB MOTHERFU--

Ahem.

They could have been keeping a hand in the wind and solar plays. I think Shell tried and BP made some noises about it but neither of them are the major American names. I'm really not kidding about enhanced geothermal though. Everyone I worked with could jump to that kind of work tomorrow. The skill set is an exact match, no retraining. Just have to hire some extra engineers* for the generation plant. (*- Yes, I'm oversimplifying but not by a crazy amount.)
 

Tijger

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You would think we would have learned by now, because this is not the first time the Saudis have played this particular game with production and prices. Their goal is always the same, drive the price to where US production is not economical so they can maintain their stranglehold. But the Trump administration is far too stupid to see what's going on.

Or that to break the Saudi stranglehold, the best strategy is to go green and significantly reduce the market for oil.

Too stupid or too bought? I think the latter.
 
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