Ukraine is game to you? Part deux.

KGFish

Ars Tribunus Angusticlavius
12,463
Subscriptor++
By the way, I sincerely hope you don't hold me pointing out it contains gore against me -- I by no means meant to narc on you, I just wanted to prevent anyone else getting blindsided by nightmare fuel.

Absolutely not. I've realized I've become a little too accustomed to watching them. It was a good reminder that not everyone thinks they're worth watching, and to verify every video in its entirety before I post it. I also just assumed that it was going to just armored columns exploding, not anything more than that.

The error was all mine.
 
It is very easy to make an error in such way and i think i have done it myself earlier. News moves fast, and clicks is important, so no harm done.

Picked up this from Twitter. (My Firefox just refuse to call it X it seems).

Ukraine has received a draft of a new agreement on minerals from the US, which is a completely different document than the previous framework agreement. Ukraine will not recognize US military aid as debt!" — Zelenskyy
 

Bardon

Ars Tribunus Angusticlavius
6,873
Subscriptor++
It is very easy to make an error in such way and i think i have done it myself earlier. News moves fast, and clicks is important, so no harm done.

Picked up this from Twitter. (My Firefox just refuse to call it X it seems).
Not surprised at the US changing the offer to include that bullshit, but good on Zelenskyy to say "Nuts to that!"
 

Klockwerk

Ars Praefectus
3,632
Subscriptor
Not surprised at the US changing the offer to include that bullshit, but good on Zelenskyy to say "Nuts to that!"
It's a more measured approach from Zelenskyy.

He's going to set up an interdepartmental committee with fairly broad terms of reference so that at the end of the day he'll be in the position to think through the various implications and arrive at a decision based on long-term considerations rather than rush prematurely into precipitate and possibly ill-conceived action which might well have unforseen repercussions.
 

thrillgore

Ars Tribunus Militum
2,913
Subscriptor

goates

Ars Tribunus Militum
2,714
Subscriptor++
More details about the sinking of the Moskva are coming out. The Biden Administration wasn't happy about it either. What did they expect Ukraine to do though?

One of the key military operations discussed in the report was the sinking of the Moskva in the Black Sea. According to a senior US military official, American and Ukrainian naval officers were in a routine intelligence-sharing session when an unexpected signal appeared on radar.

The Americans identified the object as the Moskva, to which the Ukrainians responded with surprise and immediately launched an attack.

“The Americans go: ‘Oh, that’s the Moskva!’ The Ukrainians go: ‘Oh my God. Thanks a lot. Bye.’”

There was also “panic” - the Biden administration had not intended to allow Ukraine to attack a major symbol of Russian power.

https://www.kyivpost.com/post/49863
 

dzid

Wise, Aged Ars Veteran
375
Subscriptor
More details about the sinking of the Moskva are coming out. The Biden Administration wasn't happy about it either. What did they expect Ukraine to do though?





https://www.kyivpost.com/post/49863
Yeah, like lots of other things the Biden admin was unwilling to allow, at the cost of Ukrainian lives and a (much) longer war.

As much as I give him credit for supporting an ally (rather than a murderous aggressor), failing to allow (for example) Ukraine to hit Russian airfields where glide bomb attacks were launched from en masse, among many other restrictions geared toward never allowing Russia to lose (i.e. just GTFO of Ukraine) was an enormous mistake and moral failure.
 

thrillgore

Ars Tribunus Militum
2,913
Subscriptor
More details about the sinking of the Moskva are coming out. The Biden Administration wasn't happy about it either. What did they expect Ukraine to do though?

https://www.kyivpost.com/post/49863
I still think its hilarious it happened and I don't blame Ukraine for doing it. Its a war, everything is fair except for what's outlined in Geneva.
 

Sunner

Ars Praefectus
4,519
Subscriptor++
More details about the sinking of the Moskva are coming out. The Biden Administration wasn't happy about it either. What did they expect Ukraine to do though?

https://www.kyivpost.com/post/49863
The fuck? At least the "Don't strike inside of Russia with our weapons" sorta kinda makes sense even if I don't agree with it, but "Don't attack their expensive toys even when they're in your EEZ lobbing missiles at you" is really fucking rich.
 

ramases

Ars Tribunus Angusticlavius
8,122
Subscriptor++
More details about the sinking of the Moskva are coming out. The Biden Administration wasn't happy about it either. What did they expect Ukraine to do though?





https://www.kyivpost.com/post/49863

I find it very hard to believe that the US would have given Ukraine that type of realtime access to their surveillance data. Near-realtime, with a 5 to 10 minute lag to decide if something is filtered or how it is relayed, yes; direct feeds, no.
 

Ananke

Ars Tribunus Militum
2,169
Subscriptor
There was also “panic” - the Biden administration had not intended to allow Ukraine to attack a major symbol of Russian power.

There's no attribution of the phrasing of this - so not sure if it's a direct quote or filtered through 5 layers of Chinese Whispers, or made up entirely to provoke exactly this kind of response - , but the word "allow" is really problematic in this context. It was deeply obnoxious when Trtump talked of "granting the Ukrainians the right to continue fighting", and not any less obnoxious if that same sentiment was expressed under Biden's leadership.
 

Technarch

Ars Legatus Legionis
12,558
Subscriptor
There's no attribution of the phrasing of this - so not sure if it's a direct quote or filtered through 5 layers of Chinese Whispers, or made up entirely to provoke exactly this kind of response - , but the word "allow" is really problematic in this context. It was deeply obnoxious when Trtump talked of "granting the Ukrainians the right to continue fighting", and not any less obnoxious if that same sentiment was expressed under Biden's leadership.

There have been other examples of this condescending paternalism, such as the open butthurt at the Pentagon when Ukraine invaded Kursk without notice. At this point it's hard to tell whether it's just paternalism or whether elements of the DOD were already on Russia's side under Biden.
 

blindbear

Ars Tribunus Angusticlavius
8,114
There have been other examples of this condescending paternalism, such as the open butthurt at the Pentagon when Ukraine invaded Kursk without notice. At this point it's hard to tell whether it's just paternalism or whether elements of the DOD were already on Russia's side under Biden.

It may be wanting to bleed Russia dry without a care of Ukraine. It is also possible that the administration is value stability over moral/Ukraine's right.
 

karolus

Ars Tribunus Angusticlavius
9,599
Subscriptor++
Part of the problem may have been that the Biden administration was institutionalist to the core—and thus based decisions on existing norms and policy. Never mind that much of the existing order was shifting before their eyes.

Being Cold Warriors, they probably gave too much deference to Putin’s threats of nuclear conflict.
 

dzid

Wise, Aged Ars Veteran
375
Subscriptor
It may be wanting to bleed Russia dry without a care of Ukraine. It is also possible that the administration is value stability over moral/Ukraine's right.
I think it's some of both. My understanding is that 'panic' ensued when Putin (I think probably counterintelligence op) convinced some Biden admin officials that he was about to use a tactical nuke.

I don't know, I've thought that maybe a 'default capitulate' at the mere mention of nukes is not the posture 'way above my pay grade' folks should be adopting.

Ed: And now, in a much more nuclear-proliferative world after the US lit ourselves on fire, that job got a lot more difficult.
 

karolus

Ars Tribunus Angusticlavius
9,599
Subscriptor++
I don't know, I've thought that maybe a 'default capitulate' at the mere mention of nukes is not the posture 'way above my pay grade' folks should be adopting.

The truth of the matter probably lies along the lines of working with limited information and making it up as they go along. From all reports, moxie didn’t appear to be a strong suit.
 
  • Like
Reactions: dzid

w00key

Ars Tribunus Angusticlavius
6,899
Subscriptor
FYI the original source for the article you're discussing is NYT:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2025/03/29/world/europe/us-ukraine-military-war-wiesbaden.html


archive link (scroll down past broken header)

Worth reading completely. It's a very long article with never posted before details.

In mid-April 2022, about two weeks before the Wiesbaden meeting, American and Ukrainian naval officers were on a routine intelligence-sharing call when something unexpected popped up on their radar screens. According to a former senior U.S. military officer, “The Americans go: ‘Oh, that’s the Moskva!’ The Ukrainians go: ‘Oh my God. Thanks a lot. Bye.’”

The Moskva was the flagship of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet. The Ukrainians sank it.
Ktnxbye :D

Inside the U.S. European Command, this process gave rise to a fine but fraught linguistic debate: Given the delicacy of the mission, was it unduly provocative to call targets “targets”?

Some officers thought “targets” was appropriate. Others called them “intel tippers,” because the Russians were often moving and the information would need verification on the ground.

The debate was settled by Maj. Gen. Timothy D. Brown, European Command’s intelligence chief: The locations of Russian forces would be “points of interest.” Intelligence on airborne threats would be “tracks of interest.”

“If you ever get asked the question, ‘Did you pass a target to the Ukrainians?’ you can legitimately not be lying when you say, ‘No, I did not,’” one U.S. official explained.

Each point of interest would have to adhere to intelligence-sharing rules crafted to blunt the risk of Russian retaliation against N.A.T.O. partners.

There would be no points of interest on Russian soil. If Ukrainian commanders wanted to strike within Russia, General Zabrodskyi explained, they would have to use their own intelligence and domestically produced weapons. “Our message to the Russians was, ‘This war should be fought inside Ukraine,’” a senior U.S. official said.
Pff the "don't piss of the Russians" rule runs very deep.

General Zaluzhny outlined the final plan at a meeting of the Stavka, a governmental body overseeing military matters. General Tarnavskyi would have 12 brigades and the bulk of ammunition for the main assault, on Melitopol. The marine commandant, Lt. Gen. Yurii Sodol, would feint toward Mariupol, the ruined port city taken by the Russians after a withering siege the year before. General Syrsky would lead the supporting effort in the east around Bakhmut, recently lost after months of trench warfare.

Then General Syrsky spoke. According to Ukrainian officials, the general said he wanted to break from the plan and execute a full-scale attack to drive the Russians from Bakhmut. He would then advance eastward toward the Luhansk region. He would, of course, need additional men and ammunition.

The Americans were not told the meeting’s outcome. But then U.S. intelligence observed Ukrainian troops and ammunition moving in directions inconsistent with the agreed-upon plan.

Soon after, at a hastily arranged meeting on the Polish border, General Zaluzhny admitted to Generals Cavoli and Aguto that the Ukrainians had in fact decided to mount assaults in three directions at once.

“That’s not the plan!” General Cavoli cried.

What had happened, according to Ukrainian officials, was this: After the Stavka meeting, Mr. Zelensky had ordered that the coalition’s ammunition be split evenly between General Syrsky and General Tarnavskyi. General Syrsky would also get five of the newly trained brigades, leaving seven for the Melitopol fight.

“It was like watching the demise of the Melitopol offensive even before it was launched,” one Ukrainian official remarked.
So this is how the 2023 offensive died before it started. Infighting within UA's chain of command.

Longstanding policy barred the C.I.A. from providing intelligence on targets on Russian soil. So the administration would let the C.I.A. request “variances,” carve-outs authorizing the spy agency to support strikes inside Russia to achieve specific objectives.

Intelligence had identified a vast munitions depot in the lakeside town of Toropets, some 290 miles north of the Ukrainian border, that was providing weapons to Russian forces in Kharkiv and Kursk. The administration approved the variance. Toropets would be a test of concept.

C.I.A. officers shared intelligence about the depot’s munitions and vulnerabilities, as well as Russian defense systems on the way to Toropets. They calculated how many drones the operation would require and charted their circuitous flight paths.

On Sept. 18, a large swarm of drones slammed into the munitions depot. The blast, as powerful as a small earthquake, opened a crater the width of a football field. Videos showed immense balls of flame and plumes of smoke rising above the lake.
Aha, the origin story of the most epic fireworks show (so far?)

And many many more paragraphs about the cooperation between west and UA.


What an epic read. NYT pisses me off rather often nowadays with their reporting on political subjects but in depth reports like these keeps me subscribed (at a promotional rate of course, just threaten to cancel yearly).
 

theevilsharpie

Ars Scholae Palatinae
1,473
Subscriptor++

VanillaG

Ars Scholae Palatinae
866
Being Cold Warriors, they probably gave too much deference to Putin’s threats of nuclear conflict.
You even see this with the Trump administration. The whole oval office meeting with Trump going on about "gambling with WWIII" is the latest version of this.

Frankly, I think the whole worrying about a nuclear exchange is overblown at this point. There is no reason for Russia to use them and the literally and figurative fallout from their use does more harm to Russia.

While the US has a large nuclear stockpile, its only real use is preventing any other nuclear power from targeting the US. The "Big Stick" that the US has right now is the ability start military operations almost anywhere is the world with very little notice.
 

dzid

Wise, Aged Ars Veteran
375
Subscriptor
You even see this with the Trump administration. The whole oval office meeting with Trump going on about "gambling with WWIII" is the latest version of this.

Frankly, I think the whole worrying about a nuclear exchange is overblown at this point. There is no reason for Russia to use them and the literally and figurative fallout from their use does more harm to Russia.

While the US has a large nuclear stockpile, its only real use is preventing any other nuclear power from targeting the US. The "Big Stick" that the US has right now is the ability start military operations almost anywhere is the world with very little notice.
I agree. Everyone will have an opinion on this, of course. But I think Americans who would like a country with rule of law have other things to worry about at the moment.
 

w00key

Ars Tribunus Angusticlavius
6,899
Subscriptor
NL minister of defense on Twitter:
Visiting my Ukrainian colleague @rustem_umerov in Kyiv to discuss our unwavering support.

I inform him about our acceleration package of €2 Billion in 2025.

Crucial is our €500 Million for the ‘drone line’: drones Ukraine urgently needs to stop Russia at the frontline! 🇳🇱🇺🇦

Funding 🇺🇦 defense suppliers is the best value/€.

The Drone Line project received $110M from Ukraine MoD, adding half a billion in one go is crazy, that will buy sooooo many drones big and small.

The Netherlands has been a steadfast ally since the beginning of Russia’s full-scale invasion, providing consistent financial and military support. Their active participation in the international ‘drone coalition’ is notable, with total Dutch investments in drone development, procurement, and production deployment for Ukraine now exceeding €1 billion. This latest €500 million pledge follows a €700 million package announced earlier in March 2025, aimed at enhancing drone manufacturing capabilities.

https://techukraine.org/2025/03/31/...nto-ukraines-cutting-edge-drone-line-project/
 

wrylachlan

Ars Legatus Legionis
13,709
Subscriptor
Some movement on secondary sanctions:
https://www.lgraham.senate.gov/publ...eases?ID=3D495158-CF7D-4833-A2DB-9E5558843F1B

That at least hands Trump options, although it certainly doesn't seem like he thinks he needs congressional approval to introduce tariffs.
It’s kind of fascinating who’s on that legislation - managing to get a fully bipartisan piece of legislation introduced (even in the ostensibly more level headed Senate) is pretty rare these days.
 

Neverm1nd

Ars Scholae Palatinae
1,426

goates

Ars Tribunus Militum
2,714
Subscriptor++

goates

Ars Tribunus Militum
2,714
Subscriptor++
Definitely after it leaves port. Any other choice means they didn't spend as many resources on it and have it right where they need for repairs.
I was thinking of the possibility of starting a fire like the one that destroyed the USS Bonhomme Richard. It would be beyond repair and tie up the dry dock while they clean up the wreck. Maybe cause some damage to the dock, cranes etc. too.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/USS_Bonhomme_Richard_(LHD-6)
 
  • Like
Reactions: Fingolfin

Neverm1nd

Ars Scholae Palatinae
1,426
https://www.barrons.com/news/matter-of-weeks-to-know-if-russia-serious-about-peace-rubio-7aa71fdb

"'President Trump is not going to fall into the trap of endless negotiations about negotiations,' Rubio told journalists after the meeting.

'We will know soon enough, in a matter of weeks, not months, whether Russia is serious about peace or not.'
"

And then what? Will the Trump administration actually do anything at that point? There's a lot of reporting about Trump starting to lose it's patience with Putin, but what does it mean? Any guesses?
 

stdaro

Ars Scholae Palatinae
684
In what would be a considered a bold move, Russia is building a 30,000 ton amphibious assault ship in the Black Sea. More specifically, in Crimea.

https://www.newsweek.com/satellite-images-russia-black-sea-ship-crimea-2054878

Can't decide whether hitting it while under construction, during launch, or waiting until it leaves port to be sunk would be better. :unsure:
pay off a few guards and some low level technicians. Take the keys and just steal it when its almost done.
 

Technarch

Ars Legatus Legionis
12,558
Subscriptor
https://www.barrons.com/news/matter-of-weeks-to-know-if-russia-serious-about-peace-rubio-7aa71fdb

"'President Trump is not going to fall into the trap of endless negotiations about negotiations,' Rubio told journalists after the meeting.

'We will know soon enough, in a matter of weeks, not months, whether Russia is serious about peace or not.'
"

And then what? Will the Trump administration actually do anything at that point? There's a lot of reporting about Trump starting to lose it's patience with Putin, but what does it mean? Any guesses?

All I know is that the aid flights resumed after like a two-week pause during the ceasefire "negotiations". And as long as they're going to Ukraine and not Russia, I'm good.