ChaoticUnreal

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You're right, phrased like that it doesn't make sense. It does read like I'm pulling it apart as opex and capex, although I didn't intend it like that.

With my first comment, I'm saying that the company as a whole, all the parts it needs to function, are very much unprofitable, and that losses only increase as they grow. SpaceX isn't suddenly going to make a profit as they scale the launch business up, and they are explicitly not even trying to do that. All the income they get is just to fill the gap between whatever it costs to do what they want to do and Musk's income stream. I was under the impression that this was common knowledge among space nerds. None of the commercial space companies ever make money, it's always dependent on massive subsidies one way or another. Also, in the pantheon of space launch systems, SpaceX isn't doing anything special or super-efficient as a company, yet they offer lower prices than anybody else. The only way you do that is by... well, subsidizing it with your own money in this case.

With my second comment, I'm cautioning of the trap of being focused on stats of part of a business. Part of a business may be cashflow positive, but if it's reliant on other parts of the business which hemorrhage money, overall you're not going to get anywhere without a net inflow of loans, goodwill, etc..
Yeah SpaceX isn't doing anything special remember when ULA reused a rocket over and over again instead of crashing it into the ocean and building a new one. Good thing SpaceX had them to copy and didn't try anything new.

BTW I'm not wading into the argument of if SpaceX is profitable or not (I don't follow it nearly close enough) but claiming SpaceX isn't doing anything special or efficient when they are reusing rockets instead of building a new one each time seems like a silly argument to make.
 

BitPoet

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BTW I'm not wading into the argument of if SpaceX is profitable or not (I don't follow it nearly close enough) but claiming SpaceX isn't doing anything special or efficient when they are reusing rockets instead of building a new one each time seems like a silly argument to make.
They're also saving money by scaling up production, and designing their rockets for manufacturability, rather than custom builds that finish once or twice a year. Keeping everything in house also removes cost (theoretically) due to better communication among engineering groups (again, theoretically).
 

Technarch

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With my first comment, I'm saying that the company as a whole, all the parts it needs to function, are very much unprofitable, and that losses only increase as they grow.

Motley Fool: How Much Money Will SpaceX Make In 2024

SpaceX probably nearly doubled its revenue to $8.7 billion in 2023, and generated "significant" profits. (Payload didn't hazard a guess at a precise profits figure, but Bloomberg reported late last year that profits were on track to reach $3 billion, "adjusted" to exclude one-time items.)

SpaceX has 60% market share in the commercial launch market on top of its government contracts. It could easily still not be profitable given that it generates zero revenue from Starship development and eighty three Starlink launches. But the cost per kilo for an F9 launch is 1/4 that of Delta Heavy, and Starship promises to drive that cost down by another order of magnitude.

fIJlJkEkIyBUSDqBlpX3inrBZJQsiM4oXDmv8Rb7XGg.jpg
 

Scotttheking

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To perhaps break it out differently, in my uneducated opinion:

Is Facon profitable: By all accounts, yes. Building and launching rockets is making money.
Is Starlink profitable: Possibly. I'm guessing Starlink operations (customers serviced by existing satellite capacity) is profitable. However, they are still developing and launching new satellites, and the R&D expense may eclipse Starlink revenue.
Is new rocket (Starship) profitable: Of course not, it is R&D.

Is SpaceX as a whole profitable?
Depends if falcon + starlink > Starship.

But raising capital to accelerate growth (R&D) with the objective of increasing revenue (and profit) later is absolutely normal. How much capital they need, and at what terms they are willing to take it, is beyond my ability to talk to.
 

diabol1k

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I feel like this is a trend whenever SpaceX financials come up in this thread -- there's a lack of precision when talking about financial metrics. Some folks are talking about "cash flow", others are talking about "profit." Strictly speaking, those are different.

"Cash flow" is pretty straightforward to understand; how much more cash do we have at the end of a period than at the beginning? If we started the year with $100 and ended with $110, we're $10 cash flow positive; if we ended with $85, we're $15 cash flow negative. Cash flow for high-tech companies is often [very] negative early in their life cycle as they are developing new products and will turn positive as they mature in their market and ramp down R&D. This can be cyclical as new products are developed to replace older ones; well run companies do a good job of managing their cash flow w/r/t ongoing business operations vs. developing for the future. Cash flow can also be split into "operating" (the cash generated/expended on core business operations -- if this is negative, that's a bad sign), "investing" (things like cash expended for R&D or to purchase long-lived assets; in other words, cash spent now with the expectation that it will generate a return in the future), and "financing" cash flow (cash in/outflows related to capitalizing the business through debt and/or equity transactions).

"Profit" is a financial accounting metric that includes many non-cash transactions. Big ones include depreciation and amortization - buying a crane for $250 that will be in service for 10 years, so it is depreciated by $25 each year instead of a one-time expense for $250; or spending $500 in salary for R&D to develop a new rocket that will be recouped over an estimated 100 launches, so each launch incurs an amortization charge of $5. Revenue is usually not the same as cash collected from customers. In theory, an enterprise's value is the sum of all of its future profits discounted back to the current time period. A good/related measure of profit is EBITDA - earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization -- effectively, what does the core operation of the business contribute to net profitability.

Business can be cash flow positive but not be profitable. This is sometimes OK and sometimes not :).

K, pedantic-recovering-CPA hat is coming off. Sorry/not sorry.
 

diabol1k

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Yeah. First, “revenue recognition” is a whole subspecialty of accounting driven by ASC 606. I am incredibly far from knowledgeable about the topic - my recovery from financial accounting began before a revamp of the revenue recognition rules was completed a few years ago.

One relatively tangible and easy to grok example - products where a customer has a right of return. The revenue for those sales isn’t completely earned until the right of return has expired; so if we posit a store that has a blanket 45 day return policy with a period-end date of 31 December - all of the sales that happened from mid-November thru the end of December could be returned even though the store has been paid for them. Revenue will be reduced on that years financial statement by an amount called a reserve - an estimate of how much will be returned.

This also gets (more) complicated where there are multiple performance obligations - like when BMW sells a car that has a multi-year service plan. They both must deliver a car and perform a whole bunch of oil changes and tire rotations, and the revenue from that transaction will be recognized between the car itself and then over time across the service plan period — even when the customer paid in banded $100s when they took delivery.
 
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And in industries dealing with large projects/items (naval construction, aerospace...), it's common to have advance payments while the building is ongoing with a final amount paid on delivery. Theoretically, these are dependant on performance from the supplier so should they be recorded as revenue?

Regarding the article about Starlink being profitable, it's based on a boutique consulting firm (15 employees) whose main customer is busy deploying a 5G satellite-based network launched by SpaceX. They have very strong incentives to massage the numbers in a way that makes the business case sustainable.

6.6B revenues in 2024 divided by 4 millions customers (assuming they gain 2+ millions customers in 2024 to reach 4 millions average) puts it at more than 150 dollars a months per customer on average. That's above even the most expensive retail plans in the US (rest of the world is much cheaper, i.e. Starlink in Western Europe is 40-65 euros per month, including VAT) meaning that most of the customers are business companies or very rich folks on their private yachts. Possible? Yes. Plausible? I don't think so but that's just my $0.02.
 
6.6B revenues in 2024 divided by 4 millions customers (assuming they gain 2+ millions customers in 2024 to reach 4 millions average) puts it at more than 150 dollars a months per customer on average. That's above even the most expensive retail plans in the US (rest of the world is much cheaper, i.e. Starlink in Western Europe is 40-65 euros per month, including VAT) meaning that most of the customers are business companies or very rich folks on their private yachts. Possible? Yes. Plausible? I don't think so but that's just my $0.02.
I highly recommend updating yourself on monthly Starlink pricing in the USA:

$120 Consumer fixed location
$150 Consumer mobile, land based (RV, etc)
$250-$5,000 Consumer mobile, maritime

$120-$500 Business fixed location
$250-$5,000 Business mobile, land based
$250-$5,000 Business mobile, maritime
$2,000-$10,000 Business mobile, aviation

$?? Government aviation
$?? Commercial aviation (I've heard $150k/mo for a commercial jet like a 737)
$?? Military (I've heard that at the low end it starts at $2,500)

Then we have the really big bucks: Starshield. Custom satellites. Separate, highly secure military satellite network. This is going to be billions of dollars in revenue. The USG doesn't put a 4-star General who used to command NORAD in charge of small projects. Starshield has already had 6 launches.
 
6.6B revenues in 2024 divided by 4 millions customers (assuming they gain 2+ millions customers in 2024 to reach 4 millions average) puts it at more than 150 dollars a months per customer on average. That's above even the most expensive retail plans in the US (rest of the world is much cheaper, i.e. Starlink in Western Europe is 40-65 euros per month, including VAT) meaning that most of the customers are business companies or very rich folks on their private yachts. Possible? Yes. Plausible? I don't think so but that's just my $0.02.
Plans start at 120 a month, which is competitive for broadband in remote or rural regions where a lot of people live. People in a high density area can get internet cheaper than that via coax or even fiber, but they're not the customers.

I think the cost scaling here looks pretty incredible, since the launch costs are trending strongly downwards, the capacity per satellite upwards, and the cost of the base stations should drop with Moore's law and increasing volume. If they can be (questionably?) profitable with a few million customers and some eye-wateringly expensive user terminals, then scaled up to 10 or 20 million most captive customers they're going to make a fortune. Plus the government and military contracts...
 
I highly recommend updating yourself on monthly Starlink pricing in the USA:
I'm perfectly aware of these prices, that's why I stated that the revenues numbers made up by that firm meant that most customers would have to be on non-retail tiers.

But thanks for the patronizing answer and pointless recommendation!
 
I'm perfectly aware of these prices, that's why I stated that the revenues numbers made up by that firm meant that most customers would have to be on non-retail tiers.

But thanks for the patronizing answer and pointless recommendation!
Ah, so you were intentionally falsifying parameters when you claimed $150 is above even the most expensive retail plans in the US.

And now you're getting indignant and doubling down.

Lounge is --> thataway.
 
I'm perfectly aware of these prices, that's why I stated that the revenues numbers made up by that firm meant that most customers would have to be on non-retail tiers.

But thanks for the patronizing answer and pointless recommendation!
The average being midway between retail tiers is what you would expect if some customers are in the higher tier and some are in the lower tier. That's how an average works. It doesn't mean that most customers (or any at all) pay exactly the average.
 

Xavin

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It's worth remembering that while a bunch of people on land want Starlink for various reasons, pretty much everyone on the planet who lives or works on a boat wants Starlink because it's 100x-1000x better than the alternatives and still cheaper. Every big yacht, every commercial cargo ship, every cruiser with a sailboat they live and travel on, every oil platform, probably even every offshore wind installation, etc. I imagine all those are going to make up a far bigger piece of the revenue pie than residential customers, even if there are less of them overall. There's a reason all the plans for marine and business use cost so much more.
 
Ah, so you were intentionally falsifying parameters when you claimed $150 is above even the most expensive retail plans in the US.

And now you're getting indignant and doubling down.

Lounge is --> thataway.
Anything above $150 is business, maritime or world roaming plans.

I obviously checked the pricing (and double checked for non-US pricing to make sure I wasn't missing some region with higher than US pricing but it's quite the opposite) so your comment showed a complete lack of respect. Your rambling also did nothing to disprove my point that the numbers quoted by that Quilty Space consultancy firm imply that the lion's share of Starlink would come from B2B/Custom offers. As I said, it's a remote possibility IMO but as we don't have hard numbers...

It's worth remembering that while a bunch of people on land want Starlink for various reasons, pretty much everyone on the planet who lives or works on a boat wants Starlink because it's 100x-1000x better than the alternatives and still cheaper. Every big yacht, every commercial cargo ship, every cruiser with a sailboat they live and travel on, every oil platform, probably even every offshore wind installation, etc. I imagine all those are going to make up a far bigger piece of the revenue pie than residential customers, even if there are less of them overall. There's a reason all the plans for marine and business use cost so much more.
I though about this so I made a quick check on cruise ships as a lot of them are getting Starlink upgrades. There are "only" 302 cruise ships in the world according to wikipedia with an average capacity of a bit over 2k passengers. Even at 100k a months that's "only" 360 millions (i.e. less than 5% of these projected Starlink revenues number), nice to have but not enough to make a difference. I know, you're going to tell me that Starlink is surely worth 1 million a month, I mean, internet, right? Well, the average cost per cruise outside of payroll, food & beverage is estimated at $103, so around 5k yearly per passenger capacity. A 5k passenger cruise ship operator is only willing to spend $25 millions on passenger (technical) amenities while bringing about 50 millions in profit ($200 per cruise) so even 1 million a year for internet is on the high side. Most other leisure boats spend most of their time anchored in port or within 10 miles of a coast where they have mobile coverage (plus there aren't that many of them, estimates for large yachts worldwide is less than 10k units).

Cargo ships? Their profit margins are terrible: Maersk lost 148 dollars per container in 2023, it's no wornder they go out of their way to hire the cheapest crew possible. A container crew is 20 to 30 people, if they think that saving even $100 per crew is worth it, this puts a very hard ceiling on what they're willing to pay for internet connectivity. But yeah, there are 50k container shipson the planet so it's easy to come up with al arge number by assuming 100% market capture, and some unrealistic revenue per ship.

I've been working in the mobile teco industry for a long time and seen too many shaky business plan to not become a little jaded. The problem with this type of venture is that you have very large fixed, almost 100% indirect costs so it's very hard to predict whather you'll end up with a money printer or a blackhole sucking money endlessly.
 
I obviously checked the pricing (and double checked for non-US pricing to make sure I wasn't missing some region with higher than US pricing but it's quite the opposite) so your comment showed a complete lack of respect. Your rambling also did nothing to disprove my point that the numbers quoted by that Quilty Space consultancy firm imply that the lion's share of Starlink would come from B2B/Custom offers.
I think pointing out that the average price is close to the retail price does actually refute your point.
 
Anything above $150 is business, maritime or world roaming plans.
And the consumer maritime is $250-$5,000. Trying to reframe things doesn't make you right, it just means you admitted you were wrong, but chose a weaselly way to admit it.

Your actual claim which was politely disputed was "all retail". Retail does not mean consumer. Most (possibly the vast majority) of the business tiers are still retail, they're not resellers.

In science, pointing out incorrect information isn't "disrespect" - it's part of the scientific method.
 
I though about this so I made a quick check on cruise ships as a lot of them are getting Starlink upgrades. There are "only" 302 cruise ships in the world according to wikipedia with an average capacity of a bit over 2k passengers. Even at 100k a months that's "only" 360 millions (i.e. less than 5% of these projected Starlink revenues number), nice to have but not enough to make a difference.
You want something at a scale that makes a difference?

There are approximately 30,000 commercial aircraft.

Starshield and other government services.
 

Staubo

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I can almost guarantee that among the full-time live aboard 'cruisers' in the world on their sailboats/powerboats under 70ft, there are Starlink subscribers in the tens of thousands. They use to have Iridium Go subscriptions for when they were out of sight of land to have basic connectivity for weather reports and text messages, with high end yachts using Intelsat like ocean-going freighters/tankers. They have almost all switched to Starlink for more bandwidth and better service.

It is not just one line of service that makes Starlink profitable, it is the entire broad spectrum of use cases where people could not get reliable broadband before. Hell, --I-- am a Starlink subscriber! My use case is for the family cabin deep in the woods where the best Internet service is 10MB DSL, with no improvements in sight. My retired mother lives there and I want to be sure she can have reliable access to the outside world. Plus it gives me some freedom to work remotely during the summer. (grumbles about BS return-to-work corporate policies)
 

Scotttheking

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Please stop squabbling folks. You all are better than that.

There's a LOT of use for starlink service in both the commercial and personal mobile (bus/van/boat/ship/plane) spaces.
There's also plenty of fixed location use (off-grid remote areas, research stations, mining, farms, etc.). These all aren't necessarily high usage, but the marginal value of higher speed and reliable connectivity makes the service very worth it.

The shift in launch model brought about by Falcon is what makes having a low orbit network viable.

The above use cases alone justify the service.

Now add the demand from all the fixed locations that have lower quality service, that's a way to fill in any excess capacity. The marginal cost of adding rural residences is low, so it's a no brainer to take on as many of those customers as capacity allows.

All the rest is details.

No, I didn't read all the links above.
 

Xavin

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That reason sure, but also the lack of ground stations for downlink. At sea, Starlink uses the sat to sat links to establish downlink so its a more complex and resource intensive service on SpaceX's part
I'm not up to date on what the spread of satellite versions and capabilities currently are, but the medium-long term plan has always been to rely on the laser satellite to satellite routing to manage the traffic so they don't need a bunch of local ground stations in expensive/RF heavy areas. The single satellite up and down system was always the "just get it working" minimum viable product. Once Starship gets going I wouldn't be surprised if they start putting cache servers in orbit to further reduce load on the ground station links. If not that then ocean platform data centers out in the middle of nowhere where they can use more of the spectrum.
 

ChaoticUnreal

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I'm not up to date on what the spread of satellite versions and capabilities currently are, but the medium-long term plan has always been to rely on the laser satellite to satellite routing to manage the traffic so they don't need a bunch of local ground stations in expensive/RF heavy areas. The single satellite up and down system was always the "just get it working" minimum viable product. Once Starship gets going I wouldn't be surprised if they start putting cache servers in orbit to further reduce load on the ground station links. If not that then ocean platform data centers out in the middle of nowhere where they can use more of the spectrum.
This seems relevant
View: https://youtu.be/1I3dKEriVl8?si=zSe_BIrUtzDazs4U
I'm sure some of the constraints / problems in that video can be solved by throwing money / space at it but I'm not sure all of them could be
 
Dear Interested Party:



You are receiving this email to inform you about the SpaceX Starship/Super Heavy Launch Vehicle Program.



SpaceX applied to modify its existing vehicle operator license (VOL 23-129) for the Starship/Super Heavy Launch Vehicle from its Cameron County, TX site. After completing an evaluation of all applicable Vehicle Operator License requirements and confirming that existing environmental documentation is sufficient, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) issued a modification to the Vehicle Operator License for SpaceX launches of the Starship/Super Heavy Launch Vehicle Program in Cameron County, TX on June 04, 2024. Under this modification to the license, SpaceX may conduct multiple flights of the current mission profile and vehicle configuration.



An electronic version of the Vehicle Operator License is available here: https://drs.faa.gov/browse/excelExternalWindow/DRSDOCID173891218620231102140506.0001



For any media inquiries, please contact the FAA press office at pressoffice@faa.gov



Thank you,

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demultiplexer

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This seems relevant
View: https://youtu.be/1I3dKEriVl8?si=zSe_BIrUtzDazs4U
I'm sure some of the constraints / problems in that video can be solved by throwing money / space at it but I'm not sure all of them could be

The only viable way to 'solve' the computers-in-space problem* is to create a little bit of Earth in space, most importantly shielding and fluid heat transfer. Second most important thing is to have redundancy and (in-situ) serviceability, it is absolutely necessary to be able to put entirely new hardware in space every 2 years or so to deal with changing standards. All of that is very heavy and thus expensive, so it hasn't been economically or even physically viable.

Pretty important to note that this won't be possible with Starlink, as the individual satellites are way too small to house, power and dissipate the power of a redundant routing server. It's going to require a whole new kind of satellite. Not to mention the laser-based inter-satellite comms links that also - at least with current tech - has a massive power budget (a ~40dBm laser, roughly enough for its current bandwidth budget, would require ~250W input power - and you'd need multiple to do mesh routing). I'm pretty sure they're waiting for space-capable diode-pumped lasers to start trying that out.

*(the problem being: you can't put commodity computers in space, they need to be hardened and tested for long times and basically custom-made, which means they'll be many generations behind the current bleeding edge, which makes it unviable)
 

ShuggyCoUk

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A cache is interesting though. As it can rely on significant redundancies (most storage systems are anyway at all levels of the stack) anyway and is very low power inherently so long as the underlying read process is low power. Even moderate gains might reduce the uplink from the ground stations bandwidth significantly. It doesn't take much compute power to serve from a cache. This supposes that the ground station uplink is the bottleneck, though distributing a bunch of it across the network itself seems like a nice benefit too.

Heck you might want to charge companies like CloudFlare to use them (passing this cost along to consumers as desired, or just making their service more desirable and thus more attractive).

PRAM seems appropriate for this use case and is significantly superior than flash in radiation resistance, Not seeing it as COTS (at least from my google-fu) but I would think we've come a long way from 4Mb since 2010.

80-20 rule applies here, though likely even more so. There's a google doodle today? it's in the cache...
 

demultiplexer

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Anything you're doing with 10k concurrent connections is going to need a fairly powerful machine. Any caching you're going to do worth doing in space is going to require tons of ultra-low latency bulk storage that thus needs to be something commodity to make any kind of sense.

Think of starlink satellites as cell towers, and have a look at the kind of magic an average cell tower needs to work.
 

MilleniX

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Any caching you're going to do worth doing in space is going to require tons of ultra-low latency bulk storage
Why do you assert that it needs to be ultra-low-latency? It's competing with at least the latency of a round-trip from the satellite to a ground station and back up - i.e. 10s of milliseconds. That's an eternity for even the slowest flash memory. It's in the ball park of a rotating magnetic disk's read latency.

Additionally, it doesn't actually need to reduce latency for serving the cached content, most of which is not latency-sensitive. It just needs to spare bandwidth on links that are hypothetically congested. Those could either be cross-satellite or ground uplinks. I'll note that decreasing traffic on those links also means reduced average latencies for other traffic over them, which might be more sensitive.
 

demultiplexer

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Why do you assert that it needs to be ultra-low-latency? It's competing with at least the latency of a round-trip from the satellite to a ground station and back up - i.e. 10s of milliseconds. That's an eternity for even the slowest flash memory. It's in the ball park of a rotating magnetic disk's read latency.

Additionally, it doesn't actually need to reduce latency for serving the cached content, most of which is not latency-sensitive. It just needs to spare bandwidth on links that are hypothetically congested. Those could either be cross-satellite or ground uplinks. I'll note that decreasing traffic on those links also means reduced average latencies for other traffic over them, which might be more sensitive.
OK, Network topology 101:

  • It has the added handicap of the round trip. That's not something that makes the timing less strict, it only makes it more strict.
  • The whole point of caching is that you take away all of the downstream latency by having a low-latency node closer to the endpoint. So you typically expect a caching server to have latency less than the upstream latency. Say a starlink satellite typically sits at 5ms, then you expect the caching server to serve you in less than 1-2ms. If it sits at 100ms, you'd expect 20-30ms to be acceptable. This has to do with the statistical nature of lookups. A median 2ms lookup is going to have extremes of e.g. 10 or even 100ms, and you want your cache hits to be economical in like 99 or 99.9% of cases.
  • Internally, it's most efficient these days to have single-layer storage solutions. If you can get away with it, all that's in a caching server is a big bank of nonredundant SSDs connected directly to the CPU's PCIe lanes. Once you add higher-latency or more complex storage like NASes, you need to add additional layers of caching internally to deal with that, and that's just extra power and complexity
  • Caching these days is something you do for expensive content. Caching servers aren't serving up tiny images like the google doodle, they serve up entire movies. Dynamic content, the things people most frequently access (e.g. social media feeds), isn't easily cached but it's also not bandwidth or storage sensitive. And stuff you want to cache is security handshakes, which are the major source of slowdown in straight internet traffic these days.
 

ShuggyCoUk

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OK, Network topology 101:

  • It has the added handicap of the round trip. That's not something that makes the timing less strict, it only makes it more strict.
Not following you here. Are you saying
starlink has the added handicap of the round trip and that makes things worse for caching at the edge (anywhere in orbit for the purposes of this).
  • The whole point of caching is that you take away all of the downstream latency by having a low-latency node closer to the endpoint. So you typically expect a caching server to have latency less than the upstream latency. Say a starlink satellite typically sits at 5ms, then you expect the caching server to serve you in less than 1-2ms. If it sits at 100ms, you'd expect 20-30ms to be acceptable. This has to do with the statistical nature of lookups. A median 2ms lookup is going to have extremes of e.g. 10 or even 100ms, and you want your cache hits to be economical in like 99 or 99.9% of cases.
This seems like it directly agrees with MilleniX's statement that, because the hop the cache is trying to avoid is about 70ms, the cache doesn't have to be super fast? Or are you saying the negative match lookup has to be super fast to avoid makign the already slow latency much worse?
IME pure solid state storage can have very tight latency bounds, though I was spoiled by having a bunch of Optane for it. PRAM may well be different, though but the baseline read latency is so low (nanos) that it just doesn't matter. The power/IOps of the storage sub systems above the hardware will be the dominant factor, and starlink is fine with that that being custom I should think.
  • Internally, it's most efficient these days to have single-layer storage solutions. If you can get away with it, all that's in a caching server is a big bank of nonredundant SSDs connected directly to the CPU's PCIe lanes. Once you add higher-latency or more complex storage like NASes, you need to add additional layers of caching internally to deal with that, and that's just extra power and complexity
Yes, I envisaged a complete flat system. Not sure if PCIe is the way to go in space though :)
I would assume the starlink processing right now is Asics with a lot of content Addressable Memory to do fast constant speed routing. Whether that can do the necessary manipulations to spot locally cached data would be the bottle neck for it working without change to the Application layer. In theory you could still achieve specific targeting of things efficiently with changes to the application layer though (netflix client and server are aware of the starlink cache on a specific session and send specific requests for it that is easy for the starlink processing units to detect and respond to - including as the specific satellite servicing you changes).
Whether that's tenable though is a very different question and it seems unlikely outside of being an open standard in future if satellite networks get more popular.
  • Caching these days is something you do for expensive content. Caching servers aren't serving up tiny images like the google doodle, they serve up entire movies. Dynamic content, the things people most frequently access (e.g. social media feeds), isn't easily cached but it's also not bandwidth or storage sensitive. And stuff you want to cache is security handshakes, which are the major source of slowdown in straight internet traffic these days.
The google doodle almost certainly comes from googles own edge network regardless. I agree entirely that having the latest hotness on netflix and the like is the big win and would envisage that being the core targets. Security handshakes had not occurred to me, but I suspect are not tenable in the (rough) architecture I outlined.

Edit: This got discussed already over on nasaspaceflight
There's some additional compelling arguments for not trying to do the CDN in space there (the issue of the CDN ceding control to the ISP and the business relationships involved is a very good non technical one I hadn't considered)
The suggestion in there of caching DNS though sounds way more plausible. Vastly less data, much more scope for improvement of initial multi hops. Might play havoc with location aware DNS as the satellite moves though
 
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demultiplexer

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Since computer topologies are probably more familiar with you:

In a CPU, there's typically 5 or 6 levels of 'caching':
  • L1 or instruction cache
  • L2 cache
  • L3 cache
  • System memory
  • SSD cache
and then you hit the actual storage

Every successive cache level sits further away from the CPU and thus can afford to be slower.

Topologically, Starlink satellites sit really close to the user. There is literally a direct connection from the user to the satellite, thus this is the equivalent of an L2 cache. Something that has to be very low-latency to be of any use at all. Because the next layer of caching is... on the ground again, about the same distance away.

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Now, what do you actually cache in an internet context? Obviously, that depends on the network design. Ground-based, you can have a lot of hops between geographically not that distant places, so it pays to cache anything that sits beyond some kind of latency or bandwidth bottleneck. In the context of Starlink, there's no major latency bottleneck as everything is literally line of sight. But there are bandwidth bottlenecks - the up/downlink. So you'd expect bandwidth-limited stuff to get cached, aside from the really timing-critical stuff like DNS and certificates. And that's one of those relatively hard things to do.

It's conjecture as to what actually makes sense for starlink to do. I'm not saying the entire netflix CDN has to go into space. But I am saying that the kind of things that get cached, that make sense to put near the user, aren't easily feasible in a satellite.
 
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ShuggyCoUk

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Seeing fire bubble out of the ocean during landing was pretty incredible. Is the booster just floating around the Gulf of Mexico or do they sink it?
WickWick reckoned they can just open the relief valves on the tanks and the water will enter through the engines and sink it.

I wanted the FTS triggered because I love the Kaboom.

I suspect WickWick is right
 
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ShuggyCoUk

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that was soooooooooo cool.

also, they were down a raptor on Superheavy nearly the entire way up. Looks like it lit and then was shut down within 2-3 seconds.
They also lost a raptor on the landing burn AFAICT (assuming the central two layers are meant to be all on for the first bit.
It seemed like they did multiple starts and picked the ones they wanted from what was actually lit but it was all pretty quick.