The SpaceX Thread

[Megalodon]

If Canaveral is far enough to overfly Cuba (and apparently it is) - Boca Chica certainly is.

This is why there's only one launch window per day to launch to the ISS from KSC. From a physics perspective it's possible to launch either north or south to reach the ISS at 51.6° which would be two launch windows per day, but KSC must launch north to avoid overflying populated areas to the south.

For Boca Chica it has to thread the needle between Cuba and Florida so there's only the one choice. This means they can't launch to the ISS or launch their broadband satellites from Boca Chica.

 

[smartalco]

So is Boca Chica pretty much just for equatorial launches then? It is farther from there to Florida/Cuba than the drone ship is from the coast for recoveries, which kinda makes me think the gulf is big enough to cover any first-stage incidents. It's almost 1000 miles to land going any generally east-ish direction, is that not far enough?

 

[Xavin]

For Boca Chica it has to thread the needle between Cuba and Florida so there's only the one choice. This means they can't launch to the ISS or launch their broadband satellites from Boca Chica.

I expect all the regulations and caution about launching over populated areas is going to scale way back pretty soon, especially for things as far away from the launch sites as Cuba. We let people live right next to airports, so it's not much of a stretch.

 

[Megalodon]

So is Boca Chica pretty much just for equatorial launches then?

More or less. Transfer orbits to somewhere else like geostationary or Earth escape. There's not much point in a LEO launch there.

For Boca Chica it has to thread the needle between Cuba and Florida so there's only the one choice. This means they can't launch to the ISS or launch their broadband satellites from Boca Chica.

I expect all the regulations and caution about launching over populated areas is going to scale way back pretty soon, especially for things as far away from the launch sites as Cuba. We let people live right next to airports, so it's not much of a stretch.

Seems optimistic to say "soon". I think it'll take a lot of flight history to get there.

I would agree the farther the better since a full BFR has maybe 15 kilotons equivalent energy and the vast majority of this is expended early in the launch.

 

[Tom the Melaniephile]

If Canaveral is far enough to overfly Cuba (and apparently it is) - Boca Chica certainly is.

This is why there's only one launch window per day to launch to the ISS from KSC. From a physics perspective it's possible to launch either north or south to reach the ISS at 51.6° which would be two launch windows per day, but KSC must launch north to avoid overflying populated areas to the south.

For Boca Chica it has to thread the needle between Cuba and Florida so there's only the one choice. This means they can't launch to the ISS or launch their broadband satellites from Boca Chica.

Haven't you heard? "Soon" happened last year. Canaveral allows southbound polar launches now, over Cuba - if the rocket is AFTS certified. They just have to dogleg out far enough to avoid the Florida coast around Palm Beach. The justification partly hinges on the altitude being high enough as the rocket reaches Cuba, and the first stage dropping off before reaching Cuba.

https://www.floridatoday.com/story/tech ... 975027001/

So, why would a launch from Boca Chica need to "thread the needle"? It wouldn't. First stage is going to land much earlier.

If a launch can cross Cuba from Canaveral, it can cross Cuba from Boca Chica - the distance is more than 2x as far. Heck Boca Chica to the Yucatan is further than Canaveral to Cuba, possibly to somewhere around Veracruz. Seems pretty plausible for high inclination orbits. So is Boca Chica to Louisiana, if you aim East of about Lafayette.

Based on the polar orbit approval for launches from Canaveral, a LOT of possible inclinations are potentially available from Boca Chica.

 

[Megalodon]

Woah, nifty. Cheers.

 

[Statistical]

So saw in an article that the President of ILS (commercial Proton-M operator) is throwing shade at SpaceX

ILS and Khrunichev have strategically developed a family of Proton variants that provide the necessary flexibility at an attractive price and you won’t have to settle for used hardware

LOLZ. Nobody has an answer for the gauntlet SpaceX has thrown down except Blue Origin and that is a someday kinda thing so nobody has an answer for SpaceX today.

 

[Xavin]

Lol, the Russian space program is basically dead. They don't have the money or engineering talent or time to develop what they would need to compete with SpaceX. They have stagnated even more than old space in the US.

 

[Statistical]

Also here are some pics from the first Block 5 (core #1046) on the static test fire stand.

and another

The most noticeable change is that the interstage and raceway are now made out of unpainted heat resistant carbon fiber. I notice the grid fins have been removed. I guess those titanium grid fins are expensive and don't want to risk losing them if the rocket decides it wants to take itself apart.

 

[demultiplexer]

So saw in an article that the President of ILS (commercial Proton-M operator) is throwing shade at SpaceX

ILS and Khrunichev have strategically developed a family of Proton variants that provide the necessary flexibility at an attractive price and you won’t have to settle for used hardware

LOLZ. Nobody has an answer for the gauntlet SpaceX has thrown down except Blue Origin and that is a someday kinda thing so nobody has an answer for SpaceX today.

Hah... that is comedic. I suppose these people also never settle for driving in their car more than once?

 

[tinyMan]

I now wonder, just HOW expensive those Titanium grid-fins are? Like on the scale of rocket pricing, I figured they were a rounding error, but since hearing Elon calling them "pricey" and other hints, I am starting to think that they might be expensive-even-for-rocket-parts priced.

Are they machined from a single solid billet? It that where the price comes from? Just pure machine time and tooling costs, along with finding a gigantic billet to begin with?

If that were steel, it wouldn't be extravagant, but I know that Titanium is a bitch to machine and just more costly in general. Anyone with any idea about what the costs of those might be, roughly?

 

[smartalco]

Eyeballing this picture, and assuming the wiki is right that the rocket is 12' in diameter, that puts each grid fin at something like 3'9" x 5'. I doubt it was ever a solid block, but Elon did tweet at one point that they're cast and cut from a single piece, so that is a shitton of milling.

 

[Fortuna Wolf]

If you've seen a picture the entire surface isn't machined.
https://www.reddit.com/r/spacex/comment ... tigridfin/
Rough spots, flashing, sprues. Etc are machined. Cracks and defects are ground out and welded.
You can still tell it's a casting.

 

[wavelet]

^^ Neat pic!

 

[jsfetzik]

Given the size of the grid fins, the materials cost alone could approach $100K per fin. Forming, finishing and testing, could double that. So, total cost for a set of 4 could easily approach $1 million. Not a huge percentage, but a lot more than a rounding error.

 

[Tom the Melaniephile]

The most noticeable change is that the interstage and raceway are now made out of unpainted heat resistant carbon fiber. I notice the grid fins have been removed. I guess those titanium grid fins are expensive and don't want to risk losing them if the rocket decides it wants to take itself apart.

An apparent insider on Reddit stated categorically that the raceway and interstage are not bare carbon fiber, but cannot say more.

 

[Fortuna Wolf]

It's just rumor but they probably use a top lamination of a heat resistant carbon fiber like zoltek pyron, and coat that with a thin layer of ceramic. It's not ablative, it's very thin and cost effective, and it will insulate well enough to get through re-entry before the bottom layers get too hot and weaken.

 

[Ken the Bin]

According to Spaceflight Now's Launch Schedule, SpaceX's launch of Hispasat 30W-6 on a Falcon 9 is now scheduled for Tuesday, March 6th at 0533-0733 UTC (12:33am-2:33am EST, 9:33pm-11:33pm on 3/5 PST).

 

[Skoop]

They got bumped by Atlas, who didn't want Falcon 9 launching while they were vertical and getting rocket exhaust on their payload sensors, or worse, the Falcon blew up and took out their ride, too. (Some day, I would lol if SX could make the same claim about the other guy.)

Then, bad storms at sea forced the recovery vessels back into port. Once the weather clears out there, they'll drag OCISLY back out.

 

[F3]

SpaceX got bumped by Atlas and it's billion dollar-class payload.

There's plenty of reason to be concerned about this kind of thing: The Amos-6 anomaly nearly took out OSIRIS-REx through shared infrastructure.

 

[Ecmaster76]

The Amos-6 anomaly nearly took out OSIRIS-REx through shared infrastructure.

Source?

 

[Skoop]

Looks like they're cancelling the attempt to land the Hispasat booster. Too nasty out at sea to get OCISLY out there and stable.

They had the titanium fin$ on, so expect the booster to go flat to get them off.

 

[Statistical]

The Amos-6 anomaly nearly took out OSIRIS-REx through shared infrastructure.

Source?

Yeah given the distance between the two pads I think that assertion is dubious. Now a SpaceX RUD could cause a delay in other launches but a different payload 3km away isn't in any danger of a pad failure. It is a rocket not a nuclear warhead.

 

[Ken the Bin]

SpaceX has updated their Webcast page for tomorrow's launch (or today depending on your time zone).

The live webcast direct link is:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kpfrp-GMKKM

 

[F3]

The Amos-6 anomaly nearly took out OSIRIS-REx through shared infrastructure.

Source?

Yeah given the distance between the two pads I think that assertion is dubious. Now a SpaceX RUD could cause a delay in other launches but a different payload 3km away isn't in any danger of a pad failure. It is a rocket not a nuclear warhead.

There's more to it than whether an explosion can have kinetic effects reaching other launch pads. Like I said, Amos-6 damaged shared infrastructure at CCAFS, resulting in a loss of pressure to the systems keeping OSIRIS-REx healthy in the VIF. Had there not been a timely intervention, it likely would have resulted in LOM before Atlas ever reached the pad.

https://spaceflightnow.com/2016/09/13/q ... explosion/

 

[Ecmaster76]

The Amos-6 anomaly nearly took out OSIRIS-REx through shared infrastructure.

Source?

Yeah given the distance between the two pads I think that assertion is dubious. Now a SpaceX RUD could cause a delay in other launches but a different payload 3km away isn't in any danger of a pad failure. It is a rocket not a nuclear warhead.

There's more to it than whether an explosion can have kinetic effects reaching other launch pads. Like I said, Amos-6 damaged shared infrastructure at CCAFS, resulting in a loss of pressure to the systems keeping OSIRIS-REx healthy in the VIF. Had there not been a timely intervention, it likely would have resulted in LOM before Atlas ever reached the pad.

https://spaceflightnow.com/2016/09/13/q ... explosion/

I saw two parts to that effect in the story.

The deluge system apparently shared water tanks and pumps

If the tanks ran dry then the motors to the pumps would burn up

...so apparently whoever built the Titan pads was too lazy to put in a $3 cutoff switch. This does prove your point at least since Atlas couldn't launch without the deluge system working

The air conditioning for the satellite stopped working

“No sooner had we accomplished the securing of the pumps when I was approached by another one of our range users who explained they were losing pressure on the chillers at a neighboring launch complex,” Lindsey wrote, referring to an air conditioning system for the OSIRIS-REx spacecraft. “Without those chillers the spacecraft for the next launch would be lost.”

For that part it doesn't appear clear that the explosion had anything to do with the chiller issue - just that it slowed down the techs from reaching the Atlas facility. Maybe they used the same water supply?

 

[PsionEdge]

Looks like they're cancelling the attempt to land the Hispasat booster. Too nasty out at sea to get OCISLY out there and stable.

They had the titanium fin$ on, so expect the booster to go flat to get them off.

Doesn't seem like they are planning to remove the fins. They are still planning to launch tonight.

 

[Michael Schnieders]

Something tells me that the wave height may be a bit much.

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/w ... 304,25.349

 

[PsionEdge]

Looks like they're cancelling the attempt to land the Hispasat booster. Too nasty out at sea to get OCISLY out there and stable.

They had the titanium fin$ on, so expect the booster to go flat to get them off.

Doesn't seem like they are planning to remove the fins. They are still planning to launch tonight.

Webcast link:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kpfrp-GMKKM


Latest photos in the NSF thread show legs and fins still on the rocket. Call them a loss this time around due to bad weather.

 

[Redshift]

50

 

[Skoop]

legs and fins still on the rocket. Call them a loss this time around due to bad weather.

I was surprised about that at first. But I'm guessing that they opted for customer service over cost saving. The launch had already been delayed more than usual for when a booster goes vertical.

Job 1 is to get the payload to the desired orbit; recovery comes second. They sent the right signal to potential customers.

 

[PsionEdge]

Skoop you were posting here like you had L2 knowledge the fins where going to come off. Please don't do that again. You've posted before claiming L2 knowledge and seemed to indicate the same this time around.

We've all been burned by bad sources before.

 

[Skoop]

That was my speculation, along with that of many others, and not confirmed. Hence my surprise.

I haven't spilled any L2 beans here, and I'll ask you not to moderate me.

 

[Skoop]

Here's something that puzzles me. On Falcon Heavy and on this launch, the webcast provided dual audio channels--the hosted version, and the technical webcast version, with just the controllers on their network.

I just listened to Hispasat on the technical channel and was surprised at how very little talk that there actually is. Are these vehicles and launch algorithms so self-contained and automated that it really is autopilot all the way? Is there another channel, maybe, on which techs are actually talking about doing things and tweaking this and adjusting that, etc? I mean, really, it just seems as though they're sitting there reporting on timelines and indicators and just watching it go.

I suppose I answered my own query, but it just seems so scarily automated.

 

[Wildbill]

I mean, really, it just seems as though they're sitting there reporting on timelines and indicators and just watching it go.

Isn't that exactly what you want? Eliminate human error as much as possible and just have people there to hold or abort if something outside the system's ability to react to (boat impinging downrange again) occurs.

 

[Skoop]

Isn't that exactly what you want?

Well, yes. It's quite remarkable.

 

[Dr Nno]

If you start a transportation business with full automation from the beginning, there won't be anyone to complain if there is no pilot in your vehicle when you do mass transit. We would probably be able to fly and land an airliner with no human input, but people don't trust a plane without a pilot. For rockets, that's a given, and now you don't even (really) need a monitoring crew either.

 

[Statistical]

Here's something that puzzles me. On Falcon Heavy and on this launch, the webcast provided dual audio channels--the hosted version, and the technical webcast version, with just the controllers on their network.

I just listened to Hispasat on the technical channel and was surprised at how very little talk that there actually is. Are these vehicles and launch algorithms so self-contained and automated that it really is autopilot all the way? Is there another channel, maybe, on which techs are actually talking about doing things and tweaking this and adjusting that, etc? I mean, really, it just seems as though they're sitting there reporting on timelines and indicators and just watching it go.

I suppose I answered my own query, but it just seems so scarily automated.

Modern rockets are pretty automated so yeah they go to space on autopilot. Nobody is making adjustments in flight no human could tweak things or adjust settings better than the computer could. In the event of a failure of the flight program either by software or hardware there is very little ground control could do. Even on Oldspace rockets it is pretty much the flight computer running a program on how to go to space today.

 

[sryan2k1]

Are these vehicles and launch algorithms so self-contained and automated that it really is autopilot all the way?

Yes. When the F9 computers take over at T-1min nothing external to the vehicle is needed to get it where it needs to go.

 

[jbode]

Here's something that puzzles me. On Falcon Heavy and on this launch, the webcast provided dual audio channels--the hosted version, and the technical webcast version, with just the controllers on their network.

I just listened to Hispasat on the technical channel and was surprised at how very little talk that there actually is. Are these vehicles and launch algorithms so self-contained and automated that it really is autopilot all the way? Is there another channel, maybe, on which techs are actually talking about doing things and tweaking this and adjusting that, etc? I mean, really, it just seems as though they're sitting there reporting on timelines and indicators and just watching it go.

I suppose I answered my own query, but it just seems so scarily automated.

It is. Elon's used the term "Holy Mouse Click" to refer to the launch startup sequence. They basically push a button 2 hours or so before launch, and from that point everything (prop load, strongback retract, engine chill, ignition) is computer-controlled. The only manual control is putting a hold on the sequence (although I'm sure a hold will be issued automatically if an off-nominal condition is detected).

It's the 21st century. This is how things are supposed to work now.