The Fall of a Republic? Perpetual French Political thread

VividVerism

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The center left spent the last 8 years warning of authoritarianism and now are the ones practicing it. The people of France ought to bring out the guillotines again. There's nothing democratic about what's going on there.
First of all, Macron isn't center left. He's been a straight-up centrist since he got elected, though he's been described depending on speaker and who they are comparing him to as either "center right" or "center left".

Secondly, there's nothing autocratic about selecting government ministers. Where on earth do you get that idea? That's like calling it autocratic that Trump is choosing people for his own cabinet.

Oh, and the guy selecting ministers? The new Prime Minister? His party is solidly center right.

Also, why did you dishonestly cut out at least two full center sections of the post you quoted, with no indication you cut anything?

Notably, you cut the part about how one of the minister selections "participated under Hollande to the destruction of the Left, that he betrayed the Socialist Party and its candidate".

Also you cut this part: "Bayrou did not give anything to the Left, be it some Ministry or assurance of policy concessions. He is still under the RN supervision apparently, and he even removed a Right politician from the final list at the last moment due to some strong recommendation by Marine Le Pen herself".

Have an agenda, much?
 
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LizandreBZH

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I don't know Felix K's intentions, but here in France, when people say the situation is not democratic, it's in the context of macron's persistent refusal to choose a prime minister from the coalition that came first in the snap elections of late June / early July : the NFP or Nouveau Front Populaire (left of centre to hard left).

Instead, he keeps trying different combinations around what is left of his own coalition, plus what is left of the traditional right (that was last in that snap election). The NFP is having none of it and thus Macron's governments under Barnier and now Bayrou are dependent on the goodwill of the far right.

The only clear result of that snap election was the "front républicain", where around 2/3 of the electorate voted strategically on the second round to prevent a far right victory.

But Macron doesn't hear the message and he stubbornly rejects any coalition with the left (even the more "reasonable" part of the left, socialists and greens).

This is the cause of French current political instability and of the feeling of autocracy from Macron (not respecting the norms and customs of parliamentary democracy and what is regarded as the result of the last elections by most).
 
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VividVerism

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I don't know Felix K's intentions, but here in France, when people say the situation is not democratic, it's in the context of macron's persistent refusal to choose a prime minister from the coalition that came first in the snap elections of late June / early July : the NFP or Nouveau Front Populaire (left of centre to hard left).

Instead, he keeps trying different combinations around what is left of his own coalition, plus what is left of the traditional right (that was last in that snap election). The NFP is having none of it and thus Macron's governments under Barnier and now Bayrou are dependent on the goodwill of the far right.

The only clear result of that snap election was the "front républicain", where around 2/3 of the electorate voted strategically on the second round to prevent a far right victory.

But Macron doesn't want to respect the message and he stubbornly rejects any coalition with the left.
Yeah, that's how I understand the situation as well. "The left" (speaking very loosely) "won" (again loosely) the election, but are being prevented from forming a government through undemocratic means.

Which is precisely the opposite of what Felix is trying to push as a narrative.
 

Dr Nno

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Regarding Sarkozy's trial, this can be very interesting to follow in the next few months.

A quick summary of what all of this is about, but some facts first.
  • In 2005, Libya is under international sanctions as a terrorist state, and Sarkozy is a French Ministre planning to participate in the 2007 Presidential Election. Despite the sanctions, Sarkozy makes an official visit to Gaddafi's country, officially to speak about immigration issues.
  • In Spring 2007, Sarkozy is elected as President.
  • In December 2007, Gaddafi makes an official State Visit to France, and is received by Sarkozy as an equal Head of State. This was not taken well by most of the political class in France at the time, due to the sorry state of the Human Rights in Libya.
  • In 2011, it's the Arab Spring, and rebels in Libya are crushed by Ghaddafi. Sarkozy asks for an international intervention to help those rebels.
Gaddafi's son Saïf Al-Islam then asks Sarkozy to send back the money he received in 2007 for his campaign, a request confirmed by Muammar Gaddafi himself. You can imagine the face of everyone in France at the time.
  • October 2011, Gaddafi dies after a NATO air strike.
  • In 2012, between the 2 turns of the Presidential Election between Sarkozy and Hollande, the website Mediapart publishes a written note from 2006 by then Lybian Secret Services director, mentioning a 50 millions euros financing of Sarkozy's campaign.

Since 2012, an investigation has been ongoing, uncovering secret Libyan visits by Sarkozy's close advisors, strange money movements, selling of paintings and a villa, a witness changing his tune then fleeing to Lebanon, a Libyan ex-minister drowning in Austria after a heart attack, another one exfiltrated from Libya through the French Embassy in Tunisia to ensure he won't talk. The defense says there is no proof of all of this.

Sarkozy, his advisors and campaign managers, will have to face the judges until April 10th. This should be a fun trial to follow.
 

wco81

Ars Legatus Legionis
30,457
Does France have specific laws against foreign money in election campaigns or was the issue that it came from Gaddafi?

How long are campaigns and how much money is typically raised?

European elections seem to have much shorter campaign cycles and less rationale for needing to raise as much money, since European countries are smaller, with fewer expensive media markets -- is political advertising on TV even allowed over there?
 

Dr Nno

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Foreign money was forbidden, still is. No more than 4600€ per individual, not in cash, must be reported so you can get reimbursed by the State if you reach 5% of the votes and your accounting is cleared. Reimbursement is around 15 millions Euros for the first turn, around 20 for the second turn.

Sarkozy's goons are accused of illegal campaign financing, he's in for corruption by a foreign entity.

Official campaigns are usually short, 1 month and a half, but that's just for the enforcement of equal media time (TV and Radio). The real campaign is much longer, some candidates show their hand years in advance.
 

LizandreBZH

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When I was studying political sciences in the 1990s, France was shaken by a string of political parties financial scandals. In the same time, money laundering of drug trafficking and tax evasion were notably on the rise.

Some of my teachers made this observation that the tools used by organized crime and tax evasion were the same the political parties used for their shadow and illegal financing. No wonder public policies were totally inefficient against these social evils...

When you look at Sarkozy's Libyan scandal, I make the same observation, just modernized : you see a lot of quatar, Singapour and other tax havens, sophisticated webs of intermediaries incorporated in all the usual suspect places.

This is borderline caricatural : one of the accused has used 700€ in 10 years from his bank accounts. Dark money, everywhere. Yet he was a former police minister, head of the Elysée administration, these people think of themselves as above the rest of us. And again, the highest political authorities used the same tools as organized crime and tax cheaters.

And then you lament at the apparent powerlessness of modern democratic states and governments. My ass, it's totally voluntary, part ideology, part self interest of moneyed classes.
 

baba264

Ars Scholae Palatinae
1,123
The Libyan connection to Sarkozy is quite interesting. Were it part of a fictional story, few would probably believe it. How did he ever expect that he could pull it off?
Probably because there were many, similar stories in the 70s and 80s involving various former French colonies in West Africa and a number of French politicians (mostly on the right).
 
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Foreign money was forbidden, still is. No more than 4600€ per individual, not in cash, must be reported so you can get reimbursed by the State if you reach 5% of the votes and your accounting is cleared. Reimbursement is around 15 millions Euros for the first turn, around 20 for the second turn.
Someone get Musk to try and fund the FN.
 

Dr Nno

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Did he spend all the Libyan money or kept a lot for himself after spending part of it for the actual campaign?

Unless they just inundate airtime with political ads like they do in the US, it's hard to see how candidates and parties can spend so much over a month or two.
Apparently Sarkozy himself did not profit from Libyan money, and everything was spent on propaganda, rallies and real campaign stuff. After all, getting the President job settled him for life, no need to chase pocket money and risk to leave an evident link between him and Gaddafi. Some of his minions on the the other hand used the situation to enrich themselves.
 

Auguste_Fivaz

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I read a review of five books titled "Unsinkable Paris" by Rachel Donadio in the January 16 issue of the New York Review of Books. I have not been to France in over 15 years and was kind of shocked by what she described as the LVMH-ification of Paris. Seems like nowhere can escape the corporate influences in our era, also mentioned is Kering - both huge contributors to the Notre Dame restoration.
But, it was still good to be "back" in Paris and remember it without some of the bad news the authors listed below bring to the reader.

The books she reviews are :

Impossible City: Paris in the 21st Century
by Simon Kuper
PublicAffairs, 258 pp., $30.00

Paris in Turmoil: A City Between Past and Future
by Éric Hazan, translated from the French by David Fernbach
Verso, 102 pp., $19.95

Paris Is Not Dead: Surviving Hypergentrification in the City of Light
by Cole Stangler
New Press, 282 pp., $27.99

V13: Chronicle of a Trial
by Emmanuel Carrère, translated from the French by John Lambert, with a postscript by Grégoire Leménager
Farrar, Straus and Giroux, 304 pp., $29.00

The Zone: An Alternative History of Paris
by Justinien Tribillon
Verso, 204 pp., $29.95

In the decade I’ve lived here, Paris has become a more global and more dynamic city, enlivened by an infusion of restless cosmopolitans, many of them Anglophone. Some, like the novelist Rachel Cusk, are creative-class refugees from Brexit; others are wealthy and in search of a certain je ne sais quoi. The next Trump presidency will likely send many more to Paris, which remains a first-world escape fantasy, although it is not tax-friendly for the rich. (For that, there’s Portugal.) Inventive non-French chefs have made the city’s food scene livelier and more open to foreign influences. (For better or worse, Paris seems to have reached peak matcha latte.) Rents are rising but regulated. Airbnbs are also regulated: homeowners can rent short-term for a maximum of 120 days a year, so Paris has not gone the way of Rome or Barcelona, where the middle class has been priced out by tourists and digital nomads.

...

Enormous urban renewal plans are also underway. As part of the “Grand Paris” infrastructure project, sixty-eight new metro stops outside central Paris are expected to open by 2030, linking the center of the city to its surrounding banlieues and better connecting the banlieues to one another. It is the most ambitious redesign of the city since Baron Haussmann razed its old narrow streets to make way for wide boulevards in the nineteenth century. In time for the Olympics, Line 14 of the metro was extended south to Orly airport and north to Seine-Saint-Denis, connecting them to central Paris with shiny new cars.

Among the biggest changes to Paris in recent years is that fabulously wealthy luxury holding companies—chief among them Bernard Arnault’s Louis Vuitton Moët Hennessy (LVMH) and François Pinault’s Kering—have become important participants in France’s previously state-dominated cultural scene. Arnault is one of the richest men in the world and one of the most powerful in France. LVMH contributed €200 million (and Kering €100 million) to the €900 million pledged for the restoration of Notre-Dame. In 2014 the Louis Vuitton Foundation opened its exhibition space designed by Frank Gehry in the Bois de Boulogne, where it can mount shows rivaling those of France’s great public museums.

C'est la vie, eh?

Added: Just to note that this isn't just a LVMH bashing, she also tells of the movement of finance and banking from London to Paris due to Brexit and other large scale changes due to political, social, and cultural forces.
 
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Dr Nno

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It's hard to get enough motivation to read and write on the French political situation when so many things happen in the US, and our local shenanigans seem so trivial compared to the Trump Catastrophe™. However...

François Bayrou, Prime Minister from the Center bloc, successfully survived his first motion of no-confidence, raised to contest the 2025 Budget*. This time, the Left bloc shattered, and the Socialist Party did not vote against the Government. From what I heard (French Public Radio mainly), the reasoning is that the Socialists helped to topple the first government as a way to show their wrath against Macron and his refusal to have a Left Prime Minister despite the results of the elections. But now, the Socialist Party wants to appear as the responsible component of the Left, and to show to the country that they want the chaos to stop, and let the Budget be passed and applied, even if it's a bad one. They negotiated with Bayrou to get a few concessions in exchange to their temporary cooperation, with absolutely no guarantee that this would

Mélenchon cried a lot, and said that the New Popular Front was over, while the other components reminded him that he did not create it, so please kindly shut up for now. The Greens noted that it was a very bad Budget, but assured everyone that the only way forward was within a Left coalition.

The positive consequence of this situation is that the Far Right has lost a powerful lever, they can't make or break the government anymore, and the Government gained enough staying power that we may have stability until the next dissolution in July. And maybe at that time Marine Le Pen will be ineligible due to her EU funds embezzlement conviction. One can hope.

* The budget was clearly rushed, clearly Right-leaning, and everyone is now finding cuts that are worthy of protests. The Socialists were not happy to let it pass, but in their eyes, not having a budget was worse than this one.
 

Kergonath

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From what I heard (French Public Radio mainly), the reasoning is that the Socialists helped to topple the first government as a way to show their wrath against Macron and his refusal to have a Left Prime Minister despite the results of the elections. But now, the Socialist Party wants to appear as the responsible component of the Left, and to show to the country that they want the chaos to stop, and let the Budget be passed and applied, even if it's a bad one. They negotiated with Bayrou to get a few concessions in exchange to their temporary cooperation, with absolutely no guarantee that this would
Indeed. What happened was that Barnier tried openings towards the right, lured by Le Pen. It backfired for various reasons, but politically it was very difficult for any left-leaning party to agree.

Bayrou is more consensual, relatively speaking, and made openings to the centre-left. In these conditions, the political cost of keeping the country’s finances in turmoil is different. The socialists did not give carte blanche to the government, they acknowledged that the country needs a budget and that a more nuanced approach than “let it burn” was warranted. Other parties in the left-wing coalition are upset because “let it burn” was more or less their intention.

Mélenchon cried a lot, and said that the New Popular Front was over, while the other components reminded him that he did not create it, so please kindly shut up for now.

Also, his arguments (that Macron must do as Mélenchon wishes because the NFP came first) also applies within the NFP: as much as it upsets him, they would not have been first without the socialists, and to a lesser extent the communists and the constellation of smaller left-leaning groups.

One can hope.

Indeed, one can hope. It should have happened years ago, though.
 

LizandreBZH

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The far right FN then RN was prosecuted for embezzlement of European Parliament funds, used for the national party instead of the aides of the EU MP.

The verdict was today. Most of the accused are sentenced to various prison terms and ineligibility without suspension. Marine Le Pen is rewarded by two years in prison and 5 years of ineligibility, making it impossible for her to be candidate to the next presidential election.

This is a giganormous earthquake in French politics as she was polling ahead of all other potential candidates.

Cries of judiciary coup in 5, 4, 3, ...

Even the Kremlin is worried for French democracy. /s 1st of April ?

edit : link to the NYT https://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/31/world/europe/france-marine-le-pen-embezzlement-trial.html
 

Neverm1nd

Ars Scholae Palatinae
1,384
The far right FN then RN was prosecuted for embezzlement of European Parliament funds, used for the national party instead of the aides of the EU MP.

The verdict was today. Most of the accused are sentenced to various prison terms and ineligibility without suspension. Marine Le Pen is rewarded by two years in prison and 5 years of ineligibility, making it impossible for her to be candidate to the next presidential election.

This is a giganormous earthquake in French politics as she was polling ahead of all other potential candidates.

Cries of judiciary coup in 5, 4, 3, ...

Even the Kremlin is worried for French democracy. /s 1st of April ?

edit : link to the NYT https://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/31/world/europe/france-marine-le-pen-embezzlement-trial.html
She was polling at ~35%. In most recent elections, NR has advanced to a runoff, but then been beaten by a less popular candidate as people across the political spectrum hold their nose and vote for anyone who isn't a fascist. That would probably have happened again, although 2027 is a bit too far out to project. If anything, this might create some sympathy votes for Bardella, but he polls a lot worse than Le Pen, and again, the voters of most countries have the memory of a goldfish, and the election is in 2027...
 

Embattle

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The far right FN then RN was prosecuted for embezzlement of European Parliament funds, used for the national party instead of the aides of the EU MP.

The verdict was today. Most of the accused are sentenced to various prison terms and ineligibility without suspension. Marine Le Pen is rewarded by two years in prison and 5 years of ineligibility, making it impossible for her to be candidate to the next presidential election.

This is a giganormous earthquake in French politics as she was polling ahead of all other potential candidates.

Cries of judiciary coup in 5, 4, 3, ...

Even the Kremlin is worried for French democracy. /s 1st of April ?

edit : link to the NYT https://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/31/world/europe/france-marine-le-pen-embezzlement-trial.html

I found it hilarious that Russia likes to talk about other countries democratic values that it has never had.
 

breubreubreu

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If anything, this might create some sympathy votes for Bardella, but he polls a lot worse than Le Pen, and again, the voters of most countries have the memory of a goldfish, and the election is in 2027...
I'd be careful with the current Bardella numbers
Every single campaign poster of him will have a photo of LePen, they'll really hammer that association down.
 
I found it hilarious that Russia likes to talk about other countries democratic values that it has never had.
If trolling was an Olympic modality, Russia would be the undisputed leader. They probably would have to make a new kind of award just for them. Maybe a golden toilet seat instead as of a laurel wreath?
 
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flipside

Ars Tribunus Militum
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The far right FN then RN was prosecuted for embezzlement of European Parliament funds, used for the national party instead of the aides of the EU MP.

The verdict was today. Most of the accused are sentenced to various prison terms and ineligibility without suspension. Marine Le Pen is rewarded by two years in prison and 5 years of ineligibility, making it impossible for her to be candidate to the next presidential election.

This is a giganormous earthquake in French politics as she was polling ahead of all other potential candidates.

Cries of judiciary coup in 5, 4, 3, ...

Even the Kremlin is worried for French democracy. /s 1st of April ?

edit : link to the NYT https://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/31/world/europe/france-marine-le-pen-embezzlement-trial.html

I‘d really like some french inside perspective on this verdict. Are the „exécution provisoire“ and the verdict itself seen as reasonable? How are the chances for appeal? Are there comparable cases of other parties using EU funds for domestic purposes?
 

breubreubreu

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And yet, Sarkozy getting jail time in France was a first, IIRC. Then again ... it is Sarkozy, the guy has a myriad of scandals.

Le Pen can appeal, but from what I understood the ineligibility starts now.

There's a funny political game going on, though. Both members of Macron's government AND Jean Luc Mélenchon (the radical left firebrand) are criticizing the judge's decision. This is mainly, I'd wager, because both would be politically more certain of getting elected if they do a duel against Le Pen in the second round. But the guy in Macron's government that criticized it (Gérald Darmanin) is pretty much Le Pen-compatible ...
 
And yet, Sarkozy getting jail time in France was a first, IIRC. Then again ... it is Sarkozy, the guy has a myriad of scandals.

Le Pen can appeal, but from what I understood the ineligibility starts now.

There's a funny political game going on, though. Both members of Macron's government AND Jean Luc Mélenchon (the radical left firebrand) are criticizing the judge's decision. This is mainly, I'd wager, because both would be politically more certain of getting elected if they do a duel against Le Pen in the second round. But the guy in Macron's government that criticized it (Gérald Darmanin) is pretty much Le Pen-compatible ...
It's a stupid game. It's putting political interests above the law, with all the consequences we know of.
 

baba264

Ars Scholae Palatinae
1,123
I‘d really like some french inside perspective on this verdict. Are the „exécution provisoire“ and the verdict itself seen as reasonable? How are the chances for appeal? Are there comparable cases of other parties using EU funds for domestic purposes?
It very much depends on where you sit in the political spectrum and what your preexisting opinion was on the justice system. Many on the far right (and sadly some outside of it) will totally buy into the notion that this is a "witch hunt" and that LePen only got prosecuted so aggressively because politicians in power fear her. Outside of that population, I think the verdict is mostly seen as fair and as a pleasant surprise in that it proves the Justice system still works, albeit slowly and with some difficulties.

Now there's one thing everyone seems to agree on, and it's that this throws a wrench into the current political equilibrium and in the planning of all the major parties and candidates.
 
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Zod

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And yet, Sarkozy getting jail time in France was a first, IIRC. Then again ... it is Sarkozy, the guy has a myriad of scandals.

Le Pen can appeal, but from what I understood the ineligibility starts now.

There's a funny political game going on, though. Both members of Macron's government AND Jean Luc Mélenchon (the radical left firebrand) are criticizing the judge's decision. This is mainly, I'd wager, because both would be politically more certain of getting elected if they do a duel against Le Pen in the second round. But the guy in Macron's government that criticized it (Gérald Darmanin) is pretty much Le Pen-compatible ...
Chirac should have gone to jail, but pulled the dementia card.
 

breubreubreu

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Chirac should have gone to jail, but pulled the dementia card.
For what is worth, many of the scandals he was found guilty of were from when he was a mayor, and were the usual corruption affairs. Sure, there was other scary stuff, but Sarkozy, on the other hand ...

The prosecutor in the Gaddafi affair asked for a 7year sentence for Sarkozy, a few days ago. The guy literally got campaign financing from a dictator, and one of his right hand men met with a terrorist in the most wanted lists of the US and Europe.
 
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Zod

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For what is worth, many of the scandals he was found guilty of were from when he was a mayor, and were the usual corruption affairs. Sure, there was other scary stuff, but Sarkozy, on the other hand

The prosecutor in the Gaddafi affair asked for 7 a year sentence for Sarkozy, a few days ago. The guy literally got campaign financing from a dictator, and one of his right hand men met with a terrorist in the most wanted lists of the US and Europe.
Agreed re Chirac. There was an astonishing inventory of fabulous hotels particulars (grand townhouses) and high apartments in belle époque blocks that were distributed to Chirac's cronies when he was Mayor of Paris.

Sarkozy is a different kind of crook.