Old Easter Island genomes show no sign of a population collapse

Dr. Jay

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How does: And all of them were from the 1800s,

Lead to: by all indications, they were born prior to the arrival of Europeans

I’m assuming there are other pieces of data pointing to the conclusion that for some reason the carbon dating failed?
I'll clarify that, but the complete absence of any sign of European interbreeding in any of them plus the carbon dating not being consistent with the timing of when they were obtained.
 
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The Dark

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How does: And all of them were from the 1800s,

Lead to: by all indications, they were born prior to the arrival of Europeans

I’m assuming there are other pieces of data pointing to the conclusion that for some reason the carbon dating failed?

Most of them were collected in 1877 by Pinart, which limits how deep into the 1800s they could actually be from. Carbon dating can get a bit weird for oceanic populations because different layers of the ocean and different locations in the ocean have different carbon-14 concentrations. The carbon dating for marine organisms can be off by 200-500 years, and land organisms that eat marine organisms will end up being off by a varying amount depending on their diet. The paper notes they tried to account for that effect, but it's not entirely surprising that the carbon dating would be imprecise for that population.
 
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Redsnertz

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Awesome stuff, thanks for the write-up Dr. Jay. There's still a sentence fragment:

Using software to create a model of the historic population based on these identical-by-descent segments.

edit - and the fix is exactly how I read it. I only wish I was as good at producing such lucid prose as I am at picking out the minor grammar issues.
 
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unequivocal

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Notably implied but not mentioned in the article is that almost assuredly the contact between South America and the Rapa Nui inhabitents was maintained by the Polynesians. They had the blue water sailing technologies and skillsets, and were likely to have treated South America as a "large island." It's not just human genetics, but they also imported crops from South America back to the pacific islands.

Also notable that the low population levels would have likely been genetically enriched with inter-population marriages between populations on other islands like Pitcairn, Mangareva, and the Marquesas. The Polynesians likely had pretty routine travel networks between these different islands.
 
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Astro-CCD

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Having spent several days there in 2018, this is no surprise. Even then it was pretty well known that the previous theories were wrong.

I also suspect the title photo is not real (or if it is they are modern versions). Normally Moai groups sit on ahu platforms and are almost always level with each other. They are also seldom that perfect, being old and weathered.

EDIT: I now see that ARS has updated the title photo with a real MOAI shot, specifically the largest site on the island known as the "15 Moai".... My image below...

15-Moai-Sky.jpg
 
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tucu

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I also suspect the title photo is not real (or if it is they are modern versions). Normally Moai groups sit on ahu platforms and are almost always level with each other. They are also seldom that perfect, being old and weathered.

These are Nebraska Moai (looking at the series in Getty)
1sE4Pp0.png
 
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unequivocal

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Having spent several days there in 2018, this is no surprise. Even then it was pretty well known that the previous theories were wrong.

I also suspect the title photo is not real (or if it is they are modern versions). Normally Moai groups sit on ahu platforms and are almost always level with each other. They are also seldom that perfect, being old and weathered.
It's not real - it is, at minimum, photoshopped. Here's another "photo" from the same individual:
View: https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/easter-island-heads-front-five-smile-royalty-free-image/82549183?phrase=rapa%2Bnui


Ars should have done just a tiny bit more to get a real photo..
 
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This could simply mean that the ancestors of these particular individuals encountered Europeans, but virtually all of those ancestors viewed the Europeans as being sexually unattractive.
Interesting, since there are many verifiable accounts of European sailing ships paying visits to Polynesia (and elsewhere) where the natives were quite promiscuous and the elders quite willing to have the sailors mate with their women.
 
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3dphoto

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The cover image is a fabrication on Getty for stock image purposes (frowny faces)... I've been to the island and that scene doesn't exist.

It's interesting the wild and wide-ranging theories that abounded about the island, including some of Heyerdahl's wackier theories- nice to see they are gradually setting the record straight. I sold some images to a publication many years ago and was distressed to find that they used it in an article (for kids, nonetheless) to promote the "aliens built them" theory.
 
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Mustachioed Copy Cat

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Interestingly, deforestation caused by monument building is a myth.

The primary cause of deforestation on Rapa Nui appears to have been the introduction of intensive sheep ranching about 1900.
So it wasn’t uncontacted native populations being abusively irrationally stupid but modernity (and capitalism, I assume)? But… my preconceptions!
 
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The cover image is a fabrication on Getty for stock image purposes (frowny faces)... I've been to the island and that scene doesn't exist.

It's interesting the wild and wide-ranging theories that abounded about the island, including some of Heyerdahl's wackier theories- nice to see they are gradually setting the record straight. I sold some images to a publication many years ago and was distressed to find that they used it in an article (for kids, nonetheless) to promote the "aliens built them" theory.
That always bugs me that -besides the racial bias-people find the idea of aliens fashioning them more plausible and fascinating than humans traveling thousands of miles and setting up a culture there. I mean, the aliens were pretty lousy stone cutters for a creature (presumably) more advanced than, say, Michelangelo.
 
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tipsy.trex

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I recently listened the Fall of Civilization podcasts episode on Easter Island, biggest takeaway from that is that it seems that our whole lives we've been fed a completely fake story about the peoples of Rapa Nui that was fabricated mainly to confirm certain racial biases. I'm looking forward to more research like this.
 
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The Dark

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So it wasn’t uncontacted native populations being abusively irrationally stupid but modernity (and capitalism, I assume)? But… my preconceptions!

For once (once!) it wasn't the English.

It was the Scottish (Williamson, Balfour & Co., the Chilean subsidiary of Liverpudlian company Balfour Williamson, owned by Scotsmen Alexander Balfour and Stephen Williamson).
 
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I recently listened the Fall of Civilization podcasts episode on Easter Island, biggest takeaway from that is that it seems that our whole lives we've been fed a completely fake story about the peoples of Rapa Nui that was fabricated mainly to confirm certain racial biases. I'm looking forward to more research like this.
We've been fed completely fake stories about any non-white cultures for centuries.
And it continues up to this very moment.
 
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keltor

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Most of them were collected in 1877 by Pinart, which limits how deep into the 1800s they could actually be from. Carbon dating can get a bit weird for oceanic populations because different layers of the ocean and different locations in the ocean have different carbon-14 concentrations. The carbon dating for marine organisms can be off by 200-500 years, and land organisms that eat marine organisms will end up being off by a varying amount depending on their diet. The paper notes they tried to account for that effect, but it's not entirely surprising that the carbon dating would be imprecise for that population.
Mind you that 1877 by Pinart is based on Museum records which might be completely wrong. That is an unfortunately major assumption. Not that that there is anything we can really do about it without finding some magical source of dating techniques.
 
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keltor

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Notably implied but not mentioned in the article is that almost assuredly the contact between South America and the Rapa Nui inhabitents was maintained by the Polynesians. They had the blue water sailing technologies and skillsets, and were likely to have treated South America as a "large island." It's not just human genetics, but they also imported crops from South America back to the pacific islands.

Also notable that the low population levels would have likely been genetically enriched with inter-population marriages between populations on other islands like Pitcairn, Mangareva, and the Marquesas. The Polynesians likely had pretty routine travel networks between these different islands.
Is there any proof they actually imported crops? My understanding is that instead they found plants living on inhabited, formerly inhabited and uninhabited island (last one is important) and that they have then theories they might be grown them at one time. The plants that exist appears to be related to domesticated varieties vs wild varieties, which is a positive, but also they have found the same plants on islands that do not appear to have supported humans, which is a negative - since we know that plants appear to float on the ocean and show up in places where nobody is planting them. That last one we have seen happen in real time so it's less theory than say fish eggs and waterfoul.
 
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unequivocal

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Is there any proof they actually imported crops? My understanding is that instead they found plants living on inhabited, formerly inhabited and uninhabited island (last one is important) and that they have then theories they might be grown them at one time. The plants that exist appears to be related to domesticated varieties vs wild varieties, which is a positive, but also they have found the same plants on islands that do not appear to have supported humans, which is a negative - since we know that plants appear to float on the ocean and show up in places where nobody is planting them. That last one we have seen happen in real time so it's less theory than say fish eggs and waterfoul.
Knowledge date warning: I am a doctoral dropout in Pacific Island archaeology from a long time ago. I am not current. But a quick reading of this Wikipedia article suggests that my trained knowledge has not been subsequently refuted: the sweet potato is the most compelling genetic evidence that Polynesians visited South America, stocked up on this starchy food, and used it to sail home. It would have been a familiar food, as it's not so different from the root tubers Taro and Arrowroot, which are native to the western pacific, and were presumably carried into Polynesia on their boats.

I talked with a sedimentary expert who showed me really compelling lake core samples that held sweet potato pollen at depths that had to be pre-contact with European explorers. Sure, maybe a single sweet potato floated across the pacific and washed up on beach and that's how Polynesians got it. But that doesn't explain the genetic intermixing between Polynesians and South Americans.

The most parsimonious explanation, as seems to still be accepted by the academic archaeologists, is that these obviously talented and technically advanced sea faring people of Polynesia could easily have sailed to South America multiple times, and brought back mates, slaves, or other people from South America, as well as food crops (that Wikipedia article also mentions evidence of South American coconut genetics showing up in Polynesian stock, which is new information to me, but simply strengthens this story).
 
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gerbal

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Knowledge date warning: I am a doctoral dropout in Pacific Island archaeology from a long time ago. I am not current. But a quick reading of this Wikipedia article suggests that my trained knowledge has not been subsequently refuted: the sweet potato is the most compelling genetic evidence that Polynesians visited South America, stocked up on this starchy food, and used it to sail home. It would have been a familiar food, as it's not so different from the root tubers Taro and Arrowroot, which are native to the western pacific, and were presumably carried into Polynesia on their boats.

I talked with a sedimentary expert who showed me really compelling lake core samples that held sweet potato pollen at depths that had to be pre-contact with European explorers. Sure, maybe a single sweet potato floated across the pacific and washed up on beach and that's how Polynesians got it. But that doesn't explain the genetic intermixing between Polynesians and South Americans.

The most parsimonious explanation, as seems to still be accepted by the academic archaeologists, is that these obviously talented and technically advanced sea faring people of Polynesia could easily have sailed to South America multiple times, and brought back mates, slaves, or other people from South America, as well as food crops (that Wikipedia article also mentions evidence of South American coconut genetics showing up in Polynesian stock, which is new information to me, but simply strengthens this story).

You might find this recent video by Ancient Americas interesting, which includes recent academic research on the subject (and matches your conclusions).


 
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ShortOrder

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Knowledge date warning: I am a doctoral dropout in Pacific Island archaeology from a long time ago. I am not current. But a quick reading of this Wikipedia article suggests that my trained knowledge has not been subsequently refuted: the sweet potato is the most compelling genetic evidence that Polynesians visited South America, stocked up on this starchy food, and used it to sail home. It would have been a familiar food, as it's not so different from the root tubers Taro and Arrowroot, which are native to the western pacific, and were presumably carried into Polynesia on their boats.

I talked with a sedimentary expert who showed me really compelling lake core samples that held sweet potato pollen at depths that had to be pre-contact with European explorers. Sure, maybe a single sweet potato floated across the pacific and washed up on beach and that's how Polynesians got it. But that doesn't explain the genetic intermixing between Polynesians and South Americans.

The most parsimonious explanation, as seems to still be accepted by the academic archaeologists, is that these obviously talented and technically advanced sea faring people of Polynesia could easily have sailed to South America multiple times, and brought back mates, slaves, or other people from South America, as well as food crops (that Wikipedia article also mentions evidence of South American coconut genetics showing up in Polynesian stock, which is new information to me, but simply strengthens this story).
Maybe it was carried by a sparrow.
 
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taxythingy

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Is there any proof they actually imported crops? My understanding is that instead they found plants living on inhabited, formerly inhabited and uninhabited island (last one is important) and that they have then theories they might be grown them at one time. The plants that exist appears to be related to domesticated varieties vs wild varieties, which is a positive, but also they have found the same plants on islands that do not appear to have supported humans, which is a negative - since we know that plants appear to float on the ocean and show up in places where nobody is planting them. That last one we have seen happen in real time so it's less theory than say fish eggs and waterfoul.
Just throwing extra ideas out there:

Uninhabited doesn't mean unvisited. Finding edible, domesticated plants on those islands could be the equivalent of cupboard stocking / emergency cache.
 
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PlunderBunny

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We've been fed completely fake stories about any non-white cultures for centuries.
And it continues up to this very moment.
There was a persistent myth, taught to children in New Zealand schools, that the Moriori people of Chatham Islands were killed off by the Maori. The story of one 'primate' people being killed off by another suited the colonists, because the Maori themselves were experiencing a sustained population decline.
These narratives exist because they can be used to justify our behaviour.
 
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Wheels Of Confusion

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There was a persistent myth, taught to children in New Zealand schools, that the Moriori people of Chatham Islands were killed off by the Maori. The story of one 'primate' people being killed off by another suited the colonists, because the Maori themselves were experiencing a sustained population decline.
These narratives exist because they can be used to justify our behaviour.
The "these indigenous peoples are a vanishing race, leaving behind a world barely touched that we can put to use" kind of myth was absolutely pervasive in North America.
 
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llanitedave

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You might find this recent video by Ancient Americas interesting, which includes recent academic research on the subject (and matches your conclusions).



I never miss an Ancient Americas video. Always well researched and thoughtful coverage. Him and Stefan Milo are my two favorite purveyors of pre-history.
 
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numerobis

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From TFA:

"That population never got close to the 15,000-individual population typically considered the starting point for a collapse."

I hope somebody can educate me on the history of that 15,000 number for a minimum viable population. It's always seemed intuitively way too high, and it doesn't seem to hold up to history either. It conflicts with population estimates of European populations, for example, of the late Paleolithic based on archeological sites.

It also seems evolutionarily incompatible with what we know about founder populations, which allows successful populations to grow an initial group of very few individuals. (Think New World monkeys and Galapagos tortoises)
The theory they're shooting down was that Rapa Nui had a population that peaked around 15k and then collapsed. The data they got indicates the population never got anywhere near that high.
 
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For once (once!) it wasn't the English.

It was the Scottish (Williamson, Balfour & Co., the Chilean subsidiary of Liverpudlian company Balfour Williamson, owned by Scotsmen Alexander Balfour and Stephen Williamson).
Latin America has its own long history of genocide against Native Americans that is almost entirely independent of anything English.
 
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llanitedave

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The theory they're shooting down was that Rapa Nui had a population that peaked around 15k and then collapsed. The data they got indicates the population never got anywhere near that high.
OK, I misread, because I was seeing it from a different angle. The article was talking about an ecological collapse based on exceeding the calculated carrying capacity of the island's resources. Fair enough. Elsewhere I read about numbers in that range being a minimum viable population for genetic health. That's the context that was stuck in my head.
 
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