Well...aren't most of the big games from that acq multiplatform? You say that about the xbox installed base...but that only is critical if they made them exclusive, right?
The problem then becomes, if the games aren’t exclusive why did MS buy ABK? The revenue is nice for sure, but one of the biggest third party publishers out there isn’t a natural fit for MS’ current business. And if they’re not exclusive then they’re also not doing anything to boost Xbox hardware sales. Plus you’re heading towards a situation where MS first party games are available on PlayStation meaning PS gets Sony, MS, and 3rd party games while the Xbox only gets MS and 3rd party games but doesn’t get Sony’s games. That’s a huge handicap.
Plus there hasn't been a price drop (or maybe just $50). The new Forza is Series X/S only (plus windows). I think there are some more. But you are right...they are hurt because so many play just fine on Xbox one. And if you have an xbox one X...then even less of a push to upgrade.
Theoretically sure, but in the real world that doesn’t work. Everything you said (lack of price cut, lack of generational exclusive software, overall lack of reason to upgrade) has also largely been true for Sony and the PS5 hasn’t had had the same problem. The big picture is this: MS didn’t enter this generation in a good spot at all. After seriously overperforming with the 360 the XB1 saw sales drop by over a third while the PS4 significantly increased sales vs the PS3 by a similar amount. That was particularly painful because the nearly flawless backwards compatibility with the PS4/XB1 meant this was the first generation that didn’t effectively reset things with the new systems, compounded further by an unprecedentedly long cross generation period (I’m genuinely surprised here, historically the cross gen period has been far shorter). It’s easy to overlook for that same reason, but the PS5/Xbox Series will be four years old this November, which is halfway through the generation (again by historical standards, which may be breaking down although the rapid increase in PC performance has them feeling outdated more quickly than anyone expected).
I don’t want to reiterate the console wars, and the market isn’t zero sum, but if we are at roughly the halfway point the current reality we have the Xbox Series S/X
combined underselling the XB1, which in turn was a 30+% drop from the 360. That’s a really bad trend, and now it’s two generations in a row instead of a single misstep. Meanwhile the PS5 is tracking slightly ahead of the PS4 and even if its sales have likely peaked it still has years of relevance ahead of it (plus whatever the PS5 Pro might manage to accomplish). MS bought a ton of studios presumably to try and create compelling exclusives to shore up Xbox hardware sales, but it’s not at all clear that the Xbox installed base is big enough to make exclusivity feasible (nevermind the contractual obligations against making some franchises exclusive in order to get the purchases approved). They still have GamePass as their major selling point, but subscriptions aren’t increasing fast enough to make the math work and there are concerns it’s driven the Xbox’s tie ratio (previously a massive strength) to much lower levels and seriously hurting software sales. Granted putting Call of Duty on GamePass, even if it’s not an exclusive, is the kind of heavy hitter we haven’t seen before, but it’s unclear at this point if MS can turn GP into what they wanted it to be.
So again, where does that leave the Xbox? I genuinely don’t know the answer to this, but it doesn’t seem like the current status quo is sustainable on its own or that Nadella would allow it to continue even if it was.