MSFT CY24Q4 Results are in

LordDaMan

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Where all the comments about how his is horrible news and Microsoft so kill off their Xbox business? The shit posts starting with "I'm an investor" and then give the worst possible financial advice? Where the Apple is better and suddenly, we have to base al talk on Microsoft's profits on how many watch bands Apple sells or some other equally ridiculous metric?

Get with it people! :D
 

Louis XVI

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Where all the comments about how his is horrible news and Microsoft so kill off their Xbox business? The shit posts starting with "I'm an investor" and then give the worst possible financial advice? Where the Apple is better and suddenly, we have to base al talk on Microsoft's profits on how many watch bands Apple sells or some other equally ridiculous metric?

Get with it people! :D
I’ll bite, just for old times’ sake!

Ugarte: You despise me, don’t you?
Rick: If I gave you any thought, I probably would.

Microsoft has become so irrelevant in the consumer space that nobody bothers hating on them anymore. I’m sufficiently happy with my Mac/iPad/iPhone/Playstation setup that it just doesn’t matter what‘s going on with Zunes, Slate PCs, Windows Phones, Xboxes, or whatever.
 

Chris FOM

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Where all the comments about how his is horrible news and Microsoft so kill off their Xbox business? The shit posts starting with "I'm an investor" and then give the worst possible financial advice? Where the Apple is better and suddenly, we have to base al talk on Microsoft's profits on how many watch bands Apple sells or some other equally ridiculous metric?

Get with it people! :D
If you want to defend those Xbox numbers be my guest, but it is hard to look at them and get a good feeling about its future. Xbox hardware has absolutely cratered, tracking well behind the XB1 which in turn sold <2/3 of what the 360 did. MS has spent over $75 billion in acquiring game studios and the Xbox installed base is simply too small to provide enough potential sales to support them. I have no idea what the outcome is, but it sure feels like something has to change.
 
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Mhorydyn

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If you want to defend those Xbox numbers be my guest, but it is hard to look at them and get a good feeling about its future. Xbox hardware has absolutely cratered, tracking well behind the XB1 which in turn sold <2/3 of what the 360 did. MS has spent over $75 billion in acquiring game studios and the Xbox installed base is simply too small to provide enough potential sales to support them. I have no idea what the outcome is, but it sure feels like something has to change.
I'm pretty neutral when it comes to consoles -- they're just machines that let me get to the games I want. I wonder how much of the decline is due to people like me. In the past I bought every console from every generation, back to Xbox 360, because doing so let me play all the games I wanted to. Well, I'm never going to skip a Nintendo console for obvious reasons, I'm always going to have a gaming PC (HL: Alyx alone makes that worthwhile), and there are a number of games that are either only on or are much quicker to arrive on the Playstation so I'll likely always have one of those. What's left? I don't think there's a single game that I'm missing out on without an Xbox Series X/S that can't be played ~as well or better on either my PC or a PS5. I've been tempted to buy one even still, but there's very little reason for me to do so, and that 'extra' money can instead go to devices like the Steam Deck that do get a ton of use instead of sitting unused under my TV.
 
Aren't a large portion of titles in the catalog still playable on the original XBox One? It's not clear to me, because most of the compatibility info is on playing old games on new consoles.
Like I can play CoDMW III on Xbox One.
I likewise can play SW Bounty Hunter on Xbox one.

So what is the incentive here to buy new hardware? Of COURSE hardware sales cratered, because you intentionally failed to obsolete the previous generation. They had to know this would happen.
 

Nevarre

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So nobody cares about anything but consumer hardware?

The rest of the concern is not new to this quarter. The growth of Azure (among other problems) points to Microsoft trying to get out of the business of selling you anything perpetual. Soaking consumers and business alike for subscription based services is like printing money.
 

ant1pathy

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The rest of the concern is not new to this quarter. The growth of Azure (among other problems) points to Microsoft trying to get out of the business of selling you anything perpetual. Soaking consumers and business alike for subscription based services is like printing money.
I find it frustrating that there's no consideration for the fact that in the current technology space, ongoing server costs and continuous development / updates are kind of table stakes. It's still silly to expect the same kind of "buy once, use it for a decade" model from the 90's and 00's to continue to hold true. That's just not the world we live in now, with every device being on the internet and receiving OS updates. The software that runs on them has to be continuously updated as well. I'm not saying there's no predatory or rent seeking behavior in the space, just pointing out that it's really silly to expect a lifetime of support from a one time purchase.
 
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Nevarre

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I never said that a lifetime of support was expected. Microsoft is already rent-seeking in terms of OS licensing, even perpetual licensing.

Losing the ability to go fully off-cloud, off-Internet is VERY problematic for a lot of use cases. Not every use case is "on the Internet all the time." If you want to subscribe to your software licensing vs. contracts that look more like purchasing because you want the convenience instead of ownership, that's a valid choice to be made. It's still customer-hostile because the real cost is almost always much, much higher.
 

Echohead2

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If you want to defend those Xbox numbers be my guest, but it is hard to look at them and get a good feeling about its future. Xbox hardware has absolutely cratered, tracking well behind the XB1 which in turn sold <2/3 of what the 360 did. MS has spent over $75 billion in acquiring game studios and the Xbox installed base is simply too small to provide enough potential sales to support them. I have no idea what the outcome is, but it sure feels like something has to change.
Well...aren't most of the big games from that acq multiplatform? You say that about the xbox installed base...but that only is critical if they made them exclusive, right?
 

Echohead2

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Aren't a large portion of titles in the catalog still playable on the original XBox One? It's not clear to me, because most of the compatibility info is on playing old games on new consoles.
Like I can play CoDMW III on Xbox One.
I likewise can play SW Bounty Hunter on Xbox one.

So what is the incentive here to buy new hardware? Of COURSE hardware sales cratered, because you intentionally failed to obsolete the previous generation. They had to know this would happen.
Plus there hasn't been a price drop (or maybe just $50). The new Forza is Series X/S only (plus windows). I think there are some more. But you are right...they are hurt because so many play just fine on Xbox one. And if you have an xbox one X...then even less of a push to upgrade.
 

Chris FOM

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Well...aren't most of the big games from that acq multiplatform? You say that about the xbox installed base...but that only is critical if they made them exclusive, right?
The problem then becomes, if the games aren’t exclusive why did MS buy ABK? The revenue is nice for sure, but one of the biggest third party publishers out there isn’t a natural fit for MS’ current business. And if they’re not exclusive then they’re also not doing anything to boost Xbox hardware sales. Plus you’re heading towards a situation where MS first party games are available on PlayStation meaning PS gets Sony, MS, and 3rd party games while the Xbox only gets MS and 3rd party games but doesn’t get Sony’s games. That’s a huge handicap.

Plus there hasn't been a price drop (or maybe just $50). The new Forza is Series X/S only (plus windows). I think there are some more. But you are right...they are hurt because so many play just fine on Xbox one. And if you have an xbox one X...then even less of a push to upgrade.
Theoretically sure, but in the real world that doesn’t work. Everything you said (lack of price cut, lack of generational exclusive software, overall lack of reason to upgrade) has also largely been true for Sony and the PS5 hasn’t had had the same problem. The big picture is this: MS didn’t enter this generation in a good spot at all. After seriously overperforming with the 360 the XB1 saw sales drop by over a third while the PS4 significantly increased sales vs the PS3 by a similar amount. That was particularly painful because the nearly flawless backwards compatibility with the PS4/XB1 meant this was the first generation that didn’t effectively reset things with the new systems, compounded further by an unprecedentedly long cross generation period (I’m genuinely surprised here, historically the cross gen period has been far shorter). It’s easy to overlook for that same reason, but the PS5/Xbox Series will be four years old this November, which is halfway through the generation (again by historical standards, which may be breaking down although the rapid increase in PC performance has them feeling outdated more quickly than anyone expected).

I don’t want to reiterate the console wars, and the market isn’t zero sum, but if we are at roughly the halfway point the current reality we have the Xbox Series S/X combined underselling the XB1, which in turn was a 30+% drop from the 360. That’s a really bad trend, and now it’s two generations in a row instead of a single misstep. Meanwhile the PS5 is tracking slightly ahead of the PS4 and even if its sales have likely peaked it still has years of relevance ahead of it (plus whatever the PS5 Pro might manage to accomplish). MS bought a ton of studios presumably to try and create compelling exclusives to shore up Xbox hardware sales, but it’s not at all clear that the Xbox installed base is big enough to make exclusivity feasible (nevermind the contractual obligations against making some franchises exclusive in order to get the purchases approved). They still have GamePass as their major selling point, but subscriptions aren’t increasing fast enough to make the math work and there are concerns it’s driven the Xbox’s tie ratio (previously a massive strength) to much lower levels and seriously hurting software sales. Granted putting Call of Duty on GamePass, even if it’s not an exclusive, is the kind of heavy hitter we haven’t seen before, but it’s unclear at this point if MS can turn GP into what they wanted it to be.

So again, where does that leave the Xbox? I genuinely don’t know the answer to this, but it doesn’t seem like the current status quo is sustainable on its own or that Nadella would allow it to continue even if it was.
 

Nevarre

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Surface is obviously doomed.

They've always been lower volume and premium priced products, so a contraction isn't as worrisome but yes... it's problematic.

The thing is-- if they die, they need to license the patent to the screen mechanism on the Surface Studio. If it's at all durable long term, it's by far the best 2-in-1 solution out there with very few compromises in either laptop mode or in any tablet or alternate mode. Most of the rest of what they do with Surface doesn't contain any secret sauce that a competitor couldn't do.
 

Echohead2

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The problem then becomes, if the games aren’t exclusive why did MS buy ABK? The revenue is nice for sure, but one of the biggest third party publishers out there isn’t a natural fit for MS’ current business. And if they’re not exclusive then they’re also not doing anything to boost Xbox hardware sales. Plus you’re heading towards a situation where MS first party games are available on PlayStation meaning PS gets Sony, MS, and 3rd party games while the Xbox only gets MS and 3rd party games but doesn’t get Sony’s games. That’s a huge handicap.
Oh...I see the problem...you are looking it as a platform thing instead of a profit/loss/business thing. MS doesn't CARE about xbox hardware. It is there, probably breakeven or slightly profitable, but they don't care. They have already shown that they care about profits...and profits come from the games, not the hardware. They are just as happy to make $1B on software selling it on xbox as PS5 as windows. And on top of all of that...they want Game Pass to grow. Game Pass and streaming are their long term goals...not hardware.

If someone buys a PS5 and subscribes to game pass for their windows PC...do they really care? They are likely buying MS games on the PS and also paying for Game pass.
 

Nevarre

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I think they still care for lots of reasons:

It's hard to keep developers churning out content and managing when and how they hit subscriptions in a way that incentivizes the parties correctly and on a schedule that can be managed. Microsoft on their part wants to constantly supply new content that a consumer wants to subscribe to... but not too much all at once! That's not easy and it's doubly hard when exclusives and timed exclusives are involved.

Many consumers will have an OR approach to these subscriptions and not an AND. They may subscribe to Playstation Plus's top tiers, or they might subscribe to Game Pass but if Sony captures their subscription money, the consumer may not want to turn around and pay Microsoft for a 2nd subscription.

You also have the power of the console... what's the word for a 3-way monopoly? Tri-opoly? All locking multiplayer behind the subscription process. If you're paying something then you might as well pay a little extra for the tier that gives you the game subscription. PC players aren't captured like that since multiplayer isn't locked behind some arbitrary restriction. To sell Game Pass to a PC (or even Mac) user, you'd have to have tremendous value in the games subscription alone. Some PC users leverage that, but many who do are leveraging the games on Game Pass because they also have an Xbox console.

Microsoft also has to compete with the other marketplaces on the PC.

Don't get me wrong-- PC gaming is critically important to Microsoft, but there's a reason why they started making a console in the first place. Since more platforms get more of the same games, that's not as big of a deal anymore but it's not nothing.
 

Chris FOM

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Oh...I see the problem...you are looking it as a platform thing instead of a profit/loss/business thing. MS doesn't CARE about xbox hardware. It is there, probably breakeven or slightly profitable, but they don't care. They have already shown that they care about profits...and profits come from the games, not the hardware. They are just as happy to make $1B on software selling it on xbox as PS5 as windows. And on top of all of that...they want Game Pass to grow. Game Pass and streaming are their long term goals...not hardware.
I think you’re completely agreeing with me. Deciding not to worry about platforms or Xbox hardware in favor of just selling software is precisely the kind of seismic change in response to a non-sustainable status quo I’m talking about.

As for growing Game Pass, that’s a lot trickier. Nintendo and Sony will never let it anywhere near their own systems (rightly, in my opinion). If MS bails on the Xbox platform (note I don’t think they’re ready to abandon the Xbox platform yet, although I can easily see a sequence of events that ends up there eventually) that just leaves PCs as their only option, and as Nevarre rightly point out the value of Game Pass on the PC is very different than on consoles. It’s not nothing, but the elimination of multiplayer and turning it into a game subscription service only is a marked reduction.
 

Mark086

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If Microsoft doesn’t care about selling Xboxes, why does it bother pouring money and effort into designing ,marketing, and selling them?
I think there was a time when they cared specifically about Xbox, but I think that time has largely passed.

I think their prior missteps with Xbox have dulled their interest in it as an exclusive platform and just see it as an alternative to their desktop for games. Largely it's just a slightly different target with a different type of controller.
 

Echohead2

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If Microsoft doesn’t care about selling Xboxes, why does it bother pouring money and effort into designing ,marketing, and selling them?
Because they need them at the moment. As I have said before, I suspect they will make one more version and be done. They want software profit margins, they want game pass and streaming. Why try to sell software on 50-100mil xboxs versus 3 billion cellphones, game consoles, windows, etc.
 

Echohead2

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I think you’re completely agreeing with me. Deciding not to worry about platforms or Xbox hardware in favor of just selling software is precisely the kind of seismic change in response to a non-sustainable status quo I’m talking about.

As for growing Game Pass, that’s a lot trickier. Nintendo and Sony will never let it anywhere near their own systems (rightly, in my opinion). If MS bails on the Xbox platform (note I don’t think they’re ready to abandon the Xbox platform yet, although I can easily see a sequence of events that ends up there eventually) that just leaves PCs as their only option, and as Nevarre rightly point out the value of Game Pass on the PC is very different than on consoles. It’s not nothing, but the elimination of multiplayer and turning it into a game subscription service only is a marked reduction.
Perhaps. Like I just posted, I expect 1 more generation out of xbox.

MS has a pretty good lever...don't let us game pass, we won't publish any games for your system. They would have problems making all of their games not-available on the PS today, but get into a pissing match about game pass...
 

Echohead2

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I think there was a time when they cared specifically about Xbox, but I think that time has largely passed.

I think their prior missteps with Xbox have dulled their interest in it as an exclusive platform and just see it as an alternative to their desktop for games. Largely it's just a slightly different target with a different type of controller.
I think a lot of it changed with the acq of Minecraft.
 
Yeah, I think that it's fair to say that Microsoft still cares about XBox. In the same way it cares about Surface. And XBox needs to have a certain marketshare to act as a halo for Gamepass and everything else they want to do.

And of course it's better to sell more of them and make more of them than it is to make less.

BUT, I don't think they have the same need to be #1 that they used to. They just need to remain relevant.
 
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Nevarre

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I think there was a time when they cared specifically about Xbox, but I think that time has largely passed.

I think their prior missteps with Xbox have dulled their interest in it as an exclusive platform and just see it as an alternative to their desktop for games. Largely it's just a slightly different target with a different type of controller.

But at the same time they can't not care, because reducing support or dropping the Xbox hardware entirely just means that game devs will support Sony instead. It doesn't mean that they'll launch headlong into putting all their support effort into the PC. They'll just go to the competition. The long development lifecycles is also cluing in AAA and AA devs to the fact that if Microsoft's support of xbox is not unwavering anymore, they might start planning to move earlier rather than later.

Meanwhile, although I'm firmly in the camp that PC gaming is the optimal platform most of the time, the cost of ownership has skyrocketed thanks to crypto, AI and nVidia being both an effective monopoly in GPUs and a company that makes lower margin off of gaming/desktop GPUs than the AI hardware that has almost unlimited demand right now. They're not incentivized to produce remotely affordable GPUs and buyers are not seeing the PC as a value play-- again for lots of reasons with the GPU being a large part but only a part. Microsoft's best plan is probably to keep licensing their exclusive content to Steam etc. to the maximum degree their bean counters will let them, and just take profits like any other unaffiliated studio.

That marginalizes the value they thought all those studio acquisitions would bring to Game Pass, but it's at least a proven option. Game Pass might be more steady, and more profitable long term because any subscription relies on the "difficult to cancel" effect, but it's a hard sell as consumers suffer subscription fatigue more generally.
 

LordDaMan

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I think you’re completely agreeing with me. Deciding not to worry about platforms or Xbox hardware in favor of just selling software is precisely the kind of seismic change in response to a non-sustainable status quo I’m talking about.
Yes, like Sony and how they are selling the ps5 digital edition at a loss.

Maybe we should be posting about how the ps5 is doooooooooomed eh?
 

Chris FOM

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Yes, like Sony and how they are selling the ps5 digital edition at a loss.

Maybe we should be posting about how the ps5 is doooooooooomed eh?
I have no idea what you’re trying to say here. Did you have an actually coherent point beyond irrelevant (and possibly incorrect, a quick search isn’t helpful the the digital version specifically although PS5 hardware as a whole has been profitable for years) whataboutism?
 

Echohead2

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Yeah, I think that it's fair to say that Microsoft still cares about XBox. In the same way it cares about Surface. And XBox needs to have a certain marketshare to act as a halo for Gamepass and everything else they want to do.

And of course it's better to sell more of them and make more of them than it is to make less.

BUT, I don't think they have the same need to be #1 that they used to. They just need to remain relevant.
I think that is a better way to say it than I did. They don't care about being #1 or selling bajillions...just enough. More is awesome...but not at the cost of profits. Profits come first. You really saw the change from wanting to "win" to "wanting to profit" back in 360 era. I mean 4 years since Series launch and no price drop (though I am thinking I might be wrong and it might be $50 cheaper...which is basically no price drop, imo).
 

LordDaMan

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I think that is a better way to say it than I did. They don't care about being #1 or selling bajillions...just enough. More is awesome...but not at the cost of profits. Profits come first. You really saw the change from wanting to "win" to "wanting to profit" back in 360 era. I mean 4 years since Series launch and no price drop (though I am thinking I might be wrong and it might be $50 cheaper...which is basically no price drop, imo)
.Well there's this from the FY24 Q4 report itself:

Xbox content and services revenue increased 61% driven by 58 points of net impact from the Activision acquisition

So they are making money. Quite a significant amount more after Activision
 

Echohead2

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.Well there's this from the FY24 Q4 report itself:



So they are making money. Quite a significant amount more after Activision
Well...that is revenue. I think the actually lost money on it due to acq and integration costs...but that is a short term thing.

But yes...this. Much higher revenue...and with software margins (eventually). So how much do they care about selling 50mil xboxs at $2 profit per unit versus 10s of billions at 80% margin?

But yeah, they would like to sell more xboxs...but the days of selling 10mil xboxs at $100 loss each ($1B loss) are over.
 

cateye

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md5 doesn't know what they're talking about.

Hellblade 2 was not without its problems—gameplay is too short, for one, at about 5-8 hours, depending on leisurely you were. It needs like one more "act" to feel like a complete game, IMO. It needs to lean into some of the puzzle solving a little harder, offer the chance of different outcomes. The rails that guide you through the story are a little too rigid.

But it is visually breaktaking—just bogglingly so—and is entirely successful at the "storytelling-through-gaming" model. As a headline title on Game Pass, it served its purpose, and I suspect Microsoft is going to repeat that style of release over and over again with the gaming IP it now owns. Sure, you can buy it on Steam if you must. But wouldn't you rather just get it all, automatically, on Game Pass?

Worked on me!
 

poochyena

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If you want to defend those Xbox numbers be my guest, but it is hard to look at them and get a good feeling about its future. Xbox hardware has absolutely cratered, tracking well behind the XB1 which in turn sold <2/3 of what the 360 did. MS has spent over $75 billion in acquiring game studios and the Xbox installed base is simply too small to provide enough potential sales to support them. I have no idea what the outcome is, but it sure feels like something has to change.
and this is a big reason why I sold my (2) microsoft shares. That, and along with uncertainty about their ai investments. I sold in June at $425. It went up in July but now down below where I sold it.
I don't think their gaming strategy is working too well. They are spending a lot of money for little innovation.
 

charliebird

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I'm just musing here but Microsoft building an ARM-based gaming device could help solve several significant challenges the company is currently facing. The first challenge is developing native support for Windows on ARM applications, specifically games. Creating an ARM-based gaming device would help jump-start this effort by engaging both internal game developers and third-party developers.

The second challenge is that the Xbox has struggled to distinguish itself from the Sony PlayStation and is often considered an inferior device. Designing a custom ARM processor could help position the Xbox as a unique and competitive platform. We've seen through Apple that ARM processors can provide industry-leading performance, and from the Nintendo Switch that an ARM processor can successfully power a gaming console. This device could be handheld or perhaps the next generation of gaming consoles.
 

Nevarre

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I'm just musing here but Microsoft building an ARM-based gaming device could help solve several significant challenges the company is currently facing. The first challenge is developing native support for Windows on ARM applications, specifically games. Creating an ARM-based gaming device would help jump-start this effort by engaging both internal game developers and third-party developers.

The second challenge is that the Xbox has struggled to distinguish itself from the Sony PlayStation and is often considered an inferior device. Designing a custom ARM processor could help position the Xbox as a unique and competitive platform. We've seen through Apple that ARM processors can provide industry-leading performance, and from the Nintendo Switch that an ARM processor can successfully power a gaming console. This device could be handheld or perhaps the next generation of gaming consoles.

Yeah but Microsoft doesn't have the silicon design chops to do that in house, and the least terrible option right now is Qualcomm. Dealing with Qualcomm is no delight, and they're fabbing at TSMC and passing those costs along to the customer (translation: their SoCs are not bargain priced.) Turning into an ARM hardware development powerhouse isn't going to be something that can happen quickly.
 

Louis XVI

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I'm just musing here but Microsoft building an ARM-based gaming device could help solve several significant challenges the company is currently facing. The first challenge is developing native support for Windows on ARM applications, specifically games. Creating an ARM-based gaming device would help jump-start this effort by engaging both internal game developers and third-party developers.

The second challenge is that the Xbox has struggled to distinguish itself from the Sony PlayStation and is often considered an inferior device. Designing a custom ARM processor could help position the Xbox as a unique and competitive platform. We've seen through Apple that ARM processors can provide industry-leading performance, and from the Nintendo Switch that an ARM processor can successfully power a gaming console. This device could be handheld or perhaps the next generation of gaming consoles.
It’d be nice to see consoles take a jump comparable to when Macs went from Intel to Apple chips. However, hardware has never been the issue with the Xbox. During the Xbox, 360, and Series-X generations, Xboxes have been at least marginally more powerful than the corresponding Playstation. Instead, Xbox has been hampered by misguided vision (especially during the XB1 generation, though I’m still not sold on the long-term viability of GamePass as a primary business model) and limited game selection compared to the Playstation.

I do agree that an ARM-based handheld that can outperform the Steam Deck could have some potential. The could call it some form of “Xbox,” though I imagine it would basically play the same games as PCs. This could conceivably lure me back to the PC game space for the first time since I was ironically pulled away from it by the original Xbox.