"Elon get those rocket ships going because we want to reach Mars before the end of my term."
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Trolling skills need work...Why do people always assume the worst about Trump?Why isn’t anyone writing about the countless blunders Biden has made? This bias is getting old.
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Surely at this point it has to be autonomous Optimus robots. Even if they're in secret demo mode being controlled by employees.I agree that Mars is a better target than the moon. But not for manned missions. Send in the robots.
I would agree, the machines at most data centers are not optimized around interconnects. However, AI/ML (artificial intelligence/machine learning) and complex physics simulation are both consumers of very large matrices, which benefit from superior interconnects. At some point, if you are serious about AI/ML, you have pursue this. At least, I expect Google to do this; they seem to be architecturally more aggressive than Amazon, and certainly more aggressive in AI/ML algorithms. (... which makes me wonder, what does Meta/Facebook run its AI/ML workloads on?)Supercomputing clusters are all about their interconnects. The machines at datacenters aren't optimized in this aspect. NASA doesn't actually do this integration. They contract with IBM or nVidia to build the clusters. NASA's involvement is on the software side of practically using the horsepower (and on making the architecture decisions for the next round of machines). That's where the value in Ames' location lies. They're in the middle of the highest concentration of software expertise on the planet.
Trappist-1? 40 light-years is pretty ambitious, to say the least. I'm certainly interested in more detailed observations of the system in the shorter term, though.5. Increased Federal funding and commitment to robotic and Human outpost on TRAPPIST-1 system by July, 2038.
you assume that "Good" in the Trump administration could be recognized as "good" to anyone outside his cadre. A central theme of the incoming admin is enriching Trump's oligarch pals, everything else is just gravy.Cheap, Fast, Good. They can only pick two, but how much do you want to bet the incoming administration will want all three (and punish others for not achieving it).
What you call “assum[ing] the worst about Trump” is actually ‘observing his track record and taking seriously all the awful things he has literally said he is going to do’ and the notion that no one is “writing about the countless blunders Biden has made” is completely counterfactual. Trump is an incompetent fascist with a failed insurrection attempting to overturn an election he lost fair & square under his belt and he got more favourable treatment in the media than Biden did throughout the year.Why do people always assume the worst about Trump?Why isn’t anyone writing about the countless blunders Biden has made? This bias is getting old.
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The irony here is that it was Trump who made the decision to move out of Afghanistan, Biden even delayed the withdrawal by a year or so. Now, Biden could have probably overturned that decision, but I guess he valued being seen as up holding past agreements more than not following through. It might even be that he agreed with the decision. But it wasn’t his signature on that particular decision.*snip
Biden shouldn't have withdrawn from Afghanistan. People never forgave him for that. His approval rating dropped like a rock and never recovered.
The lesson is pretty simple: Never be the President who ends a war, no matter how much people say they want you to.
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Perhaps because the article was a forward-looking one at what's going to happen to NASA under Trump.Why do people always assume the worst about Trump?Why isn’t anyone writing about the countless blunders Biden has made? This bias is getting old.
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What the hell am I paying for if they're not working 24/7? I'm paying (my share of) > $2B per rocket and the contractors can't be bothered to spin up a third shift?You forgot that the early SX engineers worked 15 hours or more a day. SX has shifts covering all 24 hours. Artemis (Orion/SLS) program Contractors doesn't work like that. If they did, Orion/SLS would be on their 6th crewed trip to lunar orbit. There would be 24 international crews with lunar deep space mission experience and Lunar Gateway orbital assembly would be completed. My opinion.
I think you're unaware of the activities of NASA in the first "A" of the name or perhaps of the entire science directorate.Sorry but I am not seeing exactly any results out of these research centers. Still using the same fuels that were used during Apollo and Shuttle. Same materials used for building the rockets.
It was a private company that developed methane fueled rockets and developed the landing and re-use of the 1st stage boosters in a way where it wasn't crazy expensive, like the Shuttles, were to re-fly.
NASA can't even build a mobile launch tower now for anything less that a few billion dollars? Not exactly sure, why a mobile launch tower is even necessary? Sure seems like a giant waste of money. Do you really need to be a rocket scientist to figure that out.
This is not my area of expertise, but my understanding of how the large matrices for ML are manipulated is fundamentally different for the gradient descent work than for a full-blown CFD analysis. For ML there is a large matrix, but it can be copied many times and operated on separately to determine the partial derivatives in as many dimensions as desired then reassembled into a new matrix once the next step direction and magnitude has been determined. For CFD you're working to invert the entire matrix all at once. Yes, both require a fair amount of sharing of data, but the CFD needs it even more.I would agree, the machines at most data centers are not optimized around interconnects. However, AI/ML (artificial intelligence/machine learning) and complex physics simulation are both consumers of very large matrices, which benefit from superior interconnects. At some point, if you are serious about AI/ML, you have pursue this. At least, I expect Google to do this; they seem to be architecturally more aggressive than Amazon, and certainly more aggressive in AI/ML algorithms. (... which makes me wonder, what does Meta/Facebook run its AI/ML workloads on?)
Alas, I think Ames has been a late comer to clusters of GPUs. Unlike Dept of Energy labs, Ames seems to have been highly focused on massive clusters of CPUs until recently. Perhaps the software they have is not yet well-suited to GPUs. I can't imagine Ames computing being consolidated to Marshall, but could it be consolidated to DoE labs? (I'm not advocating this, but if I was forced to think out of the box, this would be hard to ignore.)
I don’t think that were or are very many Americans opposed to the concept of a US withdrawal from Afghanistan. The problem was the way the withdrawal was executed. US soldiers being killed by suicide bombers, and pictures of people crowded into planes made it look like it was worse than the US evacuation of the embassy in Saigon in the 70s. And to make it worse, I don’t think any of the military top brass suffered any consequences.The irony here is that it was Trump who made the decision to move out of Afghanistan, Biden even delayed the withdrawal by a year or so. Now, Biden could have probably overturned that decision, but I guess he valued being seen as up holding past agreements more than not following through. It might even be that he agreed with the decision. But it wasn’t his signature on that particular decision.
Given that NASA is a non-military agency, that's going to be difficult to square. Arguably, the thing most responsible for country safety is their earth monitoring programs. Water and food security is a requirement for a safe country.Anything NASA not related to defense and country safety is a waste of tax money.
Water and food security is a requirement for a safe country.
SpaceX has to perfect refilling Starship main propellant tanks in LEO before any Mars mission will be possible with Starship. That's scheduled to happen in late 2025 barring any lengthy stand down due to a major failure in one of the Starship IFT flights in that year.There is no way that we’re going to Mars in 4 years. We’re barely going to make it (back) to the Moon in that timeframe.
A lot of that infrastructure is extremely old and in desperate need of replacement. Maintenance costs are already unaffordably high, and continue to spiral out of control.
This has been reported on for years (including by Ars and even nasa's OIG), but here's a recent article on it:
https://www.thespacereview.com/article/4885/1
If there's an existing need to rebuild a bunch of stuff, that makes right now the cheapest time to consolidate.
Besides, I expect the rise of hardware-rich development, and much cheaper launch, will remove the usefulness of some of these unique testing facilities. We're probably already close to the point where it's cheaper to just test stuff by launching it.
Once we get down to single digit $100's per kilogram (which could happen in only a year or two), the extremely expensive testing facilities aren't going to be worth the cost anyway.
(Not saying we won't have testing facilities at all, just that ground testing facilities that cost billions of dollars and can't be easily rebuilt don't make sense when you can launch a whole satellite for a tiny fraction of that cost)
IIRC, President Kennedy gave NASA "Brickbat" priority for its Apollo program. That put NASA first in line for materials, manufacturing assets, etc. needed for that Moon program ahead of the military with some caveats (e.g. ICBMs, nuclear warheads).Given that NASA is a non-military agency, that's going to be difficult to square. Arguably, the thing most responsible for country safety is their earth monitoring programs. Water and food security is a requirement for a safe country.
Have no fear the Air and Space Forces are looking to develop space-based technologies for military purposes. Those avenues are being pursued - just not by NASA. There's rarely a need to launch an interplanetary probe with 6 minutes warning.
Another reason for relocating to Texas is SpaceX needed a place to launch to the east that they could control. There is a risk that old space can slow them down in Florida. It makes sense to have manufacturing and testing close by.Yup, I totally believe that.
I highly doubt most of the other NASA centers are significantly different, though. NASA as a whole has been bogged down by incredibly inefficient pork for decades, and has a lot of trouble hiring good engineers at all. It's gotten to the point where even related orgs like JPL aren't executing well anymore.
(APL seems to have avoided this fate, but they're like 95% defense R&D anyway, civilian space is a tiny part of what they do)
Meanwhile, SpaceX seems perfectly fine with relocating all their testing facilities to an area of Texas that's far more rural than Huntsville. They haven't seemed to have any problem getting stuff done.
Maybe if you actually do exciting stuff instead of endless fruitless paperwork, you can convince engineers to work for you? I think that's a far bigger deal than where facilities are physically located.
Cheaper, faster, better can only happen if you make a revolutionary step like moving the meat industry’s disassembly line into the auto industry’s assembly line or you find a way to land your rockets and reuse them. I can’t think of any other examples.There are several options, both current and in development, that would be cheaper, faster AND better than SLS/Artemis as it is currently designed. Also, the Falcon 9 is proof positive that "cheaper, faster, better" is completely possible, though difficult.
If you work in aerospace your company needs to be as close to the equator as possible and have an ability to launch to the east Texas and Florida are the only choices.And yet, tens of thousands of engineers currently work in Huntsville.They have the highest per-capita number of engineers of any metro area in the US (roughly 60 per 1000 employees, though I didn't dig very deep on it).
Regardless of your opinion, tons of engineers ARE willing to work there, and in other conservative states like Texas and Florida.
I agree regarding Huntsville. Also worth noting that the DoD is like 30X the size of NASA and the size of a region's DoD footprint is a much better indicator of a region's concentration of talent than the unique facilities at a given NASA center. I also 100% agree with those saying that the unique facilities at any given center would take years to move, which is true for basically every center. The push for commcercialization of specialized work would be more in favor of shutting down and outsourcing unique NASA capabilities than moving them, which is a sad prospect, but would mean that NASA would be more fluid/mobile and less tied to specific locations where they've invested decades in test facilities and labs. NASA is already that way with Glenn running Plumb Brook Station, Marshall running Michoud, and White Sands being run by Johnson for example. Following this existing operating model of field centers controlling the smaller field labs, it makes sense that consolidating field centers would mean the unique facilities at existing field centers would just get downgraded to being field labs which would be run by a field center elsewhere while the thousands of desk jobs would consolidate elsewhere and/or become telework/remote jobs.Huntsville has tons of aerospace engineering talent. It's one of the main hubs for aerospace in the nation. Easily a quarter of the aerospace grads in my lab back in grad school got jobs in Huntsville after graduation, and my school wasn't even in the same state.
Plus, I thought Ars was generally in favor of spending government money to stimulate economically disadvantaged areas? Why are you arguing to spend it in some of the wealthiest areas of the country instead?
Not sure what y'all's problem with Huntsville is, other than general dislike of seeing your political opponents have nice things happen to them. It makes far more sense to keep a center in Huntsville than someplace like Goddard, for example.
SpaceX has already done cheaper, faster, and gooder by going back to first principles, accepting risk, and owning production. Now that SpaceX has done it, others will follow. Dilbert worked for Old Space.Cheap, Fast, Good. They can only pick two, but how much do you want to bet the incoming administration will want all three (and punish others for not achieving it).
If it were true that launch cost is only a small factor, then JWST could have simply added 1,000 kg of mass and made the sunshield much cheaper and more robust. Launch is cheap, right? What's another 1,000 kg? $30 million?Finally, there’s some payloads you just can’t iteratively test, like JWST or really any expensive or long lead time payload. Launch cost is only one small factor and is nowadays usually not the biggest part of the lifecycle cost of a satellite (except cubesats).
You're right about ground test facilities. NASA largest facilities are wind tunnels, large vacuum chambers, gigantic stands for testing complete rocket stages, and huge movable launch towers, all dating back to the days of Old Space in the 1960s.A lot of that infrastructure is extremely old and in desperate need of replacement. Maintenance costs are already unaffordably high, and continue to spiral out of control.
This has been reported on for years (including by Ars and even nasa's OIG), but here's a recent article on it:
https://www.thespacereview.com/article/4885/1
If there's an existing need to rebuild a bunch of stuff, that makes right now the cheapest time to consolidate.
Besides, I expect the rise of hardware-rich development, and much cheaper launch, will remove the usefulness of some of these unique testing facilities. We're probably already close to the point where it's cheaper to just test stuff by launching it.
Once we get down to single digit $100's per kilogram (which could happen in only a year or two), the extremely expensive testing facilities aren't going to be worth the cost anyway.
(Not saying we won't have testing facilities at all, just that ground testing facilities that cost billions of dollars and can't be easily rebuilt don't make sense when you can launch a whole satellite for a tiny fraction of that cost)
But you could try doing it gradually e.g. all new probes are controlled from Huntsville and as old probes shut down, Goddard shrinks.If you agree that nasa has too many centers (and they absolutely do), you're gonna have to move something. Every center is going to have some argument for why they deserve to exist.
One might look at Disney’s abortive move of Imagineering to Florida from California. Significant pushback from workforce.To address your edits. First, Huntsville has a population of 230k people. Your idea of "lots" of biomedical is not going to match that of Boston or even South Florida. I won't dispute that there is biomedical research in that area. But it's not one of the top 5 areas in the country for that sort of work. Alabama doesn't even show up on the most recent census map for bioengineers and biomedical engineers - even down to the map by area.
Secondly, I don't doubt that you can recruit people to move to Alabama. But the people taking that offer are self-selected to be willing to work in Alabama. If one is to move an entire NASA Center there, the question is, "what fraction of employees from Ames would be willing to move to Huntsville?"
"JPL is the crown jewel of space exploration and deserves better treatment because they general succeed with a brilliant staff!" Yeah, this. Those people in Pasadena do some pretty amazing things, for sureThe team that came up with these recommendations must be smoking something funny! Goddard is a high functioning center with good proven space exploration professionals. They managed the Delta ELV programs for years then did really good mission management for the New Horizons (Pluto flyby) mission and the Webb Space telescope to mention but a few of their successes. Ames is a hybrid center which works on in space and aerospace. They have a good staff of California education aerospace professional.
Marshall is the center whose employees brought the Space Shuttle and some post Apollo missions into existence. Since about 2000, they have overseen Shuttle replacements vehicles including the Artemis launch vehicle. The restrictions Congress placed on these efforts has led to the disastrous state of affairs today. If a center deserves punishment, it should be MSFC in my mind.
I read comments about Voyager and other missions that were run primarily by JPL and no other center. JPL is the crown jewel of space exploration and deserves better treatment because they general succeed with a brilliant staff!
The team looking to improve NASA might be advised to close down portions of Marshall. Assuming Artemis is cancelled, there is nothing for them to do. It would be crazy expensive to transfer employees to a new center and expect them to perform as if nothing has happened. The disruptions would catastrophic for the employees and their families.
So much for the new White House leadership saving the country money. I see little value in anything they have proposed. There are things that Congress can do to fix NASA's problems, but doing the stuff the advisory team has proposed won't help. (Writer is a former NASA aerospace professional with about 40 years of experience)
In fact it has nine. But anyway Ames is in a "blue" district* so I'm not so sure it would very much bother Republican representatives or their districts' voters.To an extent I agree. However, CA has at least a dozen Republican House members. Trump's not going to get much of anything done if he pisses off that contingent.
Please explain how SpaceX's testing has done away with the need for a wind tunnel that can test full-sized helicopters, e.g. And no, one can't do the testing with computers or else NASA wouldn't bother with the testing.You're right about ground test facilities. NASA largest facilities are wind tunnels, large vacuum chambers, gigantic stands for testing complete rocket stages, and huge movable launch towers, all dating back to the days of Old Space in the 1960s.
SpaceX has made those types of ground test facilities obsolete in its Starship development process. Now, the Starship stages (Booster and Ship) are tested on relatively small setups at the Massey's Site. The Orbital Launch OLM A is all SpaceX requires to ground test the Booster's 33 Raptor 2 engines at full thrust for ~10 seconds.
Those engines are tested individually at the McGregor engine test site at full thrust/full duration on relatively small test stands during development, qualification and acceptance testing.
SpaceX has done away with the gigantic Vehicle Assembly Building (VAB) and the custom-built huge crawler transporters like the ones at KSC in Florida. Instead, commercial self-propelled modular transporters (SPMTs) are used to move the largest rocket stages ever built. And the mechazilla arms on the Orbital Launch Integration Tower are used to stack the two Starship stages.
And no need for aerobraking or parachutes or skycranes .A nice artificial crater will do.Good idea, put Trump and Musk in a rocket to Mars. "Go ahead, we're right behind you!"
3. We have no incites into the true cost of Falcon 9 because SpaceX is privately held. For all we know Musk is launching Falcon 9's at a loss merely to capture the whole market and deter competition.
"Always accomplish more?" Robotic missions have been to every planet in the solar system, orbiting and even landing on a bunch of them, not to mention gobs of asteroids and comets. One's flying within 3.5M miles of the Sun just now. Then we have robotic space observatories mapping the Universe in every form of radiation from gamma rays to microwaves. Pictures from the Hubble and Webb are iconic.Yes. Let's send more robots with drills that can't penetrate the ground.
The reality is that while dollar-for-dollar one might get more science done with robots, robotic exploration would never receive the amount of funding that a manned mission will. Therefore, manned missions will always accomplish more because they're given more resources.
Fewer soldiers died in the withdrawal than had died in the previous year of occupation. Is this just "you touched it last" logic? Going in to begin with was a bad idea and it was always going to end messily.I don’t think that were or are very many Americans opposed to the concept of a US withdrawal from Afghanistan. The problem was the way the withdrawal was executed. US soldiers being killed by suicide bombers, and pictures of people crowded into planes made it look like it was worse than the US evacuation of the embassy in Saigon in the 70s. And to make it worse, I don’t think any of the military top brass suffered any consequences.