Consequences of the US 2024 Presidential Election: Global Geopolitics Edition

[CommanderJameson]

For those of us outside the US, the election has consequences - for example, here in the UK, there are already dire warnings about the impact of Trumpian tariffs on our growth forecasts, and mutterings about the need to get over ourselves and at least get back into the European Single Market (ideally we’d just rejoin the EU, but that’s politically non-viable right now).

Defence too has interesting ramifications, especially for the current conflicts in Gaza, Lebanon, and Ukraine. There’s a reasonable case for a strong defence alliance in Europe that doesn’t include the US, although it would of course be cordial with it.

I hope this thread can focus on non-US-domestic issues.

 

[eisa01]

In Norway I hope more political parties see we need to join the EU, NATO is no longer a sufficient guarantee (we're already part of the EEA, which means we implement nearly all EU legislation regardless, just don't have a say in the process )

 

[Scotttheking]

Don’t have energy for a long post, but what I said earlier elsewhere is this is likely the unravelling of the post ww2 global order and marks the (steep) decline of American hegemony. That void will need filling.
I expect Europe will make some moves towards that, China to fill it, and trade patterns to shift if those tariffs really happen.

 

[Embattle]

I think it'll definitely show that the USA can't be considered a reliable ally, because if they can elect someone like Trump twice then it can happen again in the future.

 

[bjn]

How many more nuclear armed states are we going to see because of this? An isolationist America that backs away from NATO and withdraws its nuclear shield, or even hints at doing that, will have a bunch of countries looking at what happened to Ukraine after they gave up their nukes and think they really need big splodey things. Poland probably? Germany maybe?

 

[Bonusround]

For those of us outside the US, the election has consequences - for example, here in the UK, there are already dire warnings about the impact of Trumpian tariffs on our growth forecasts, and mutterings about the need to get over ourselves and at least get back into the European Single Market (ideally we’d just rejoin the EU, but that’s politically non-viable right now).

Defence too has interesting ramifications, especially for the current conflicts in Gaza, Lebanon, and Ukraine. There’s a reasonable case for a strong defence alliance in Europe that doesn’t include the US, although it would of course be cordial with it.

I hope this thread can focus on non-US-domestic issues.

Issue one: the extent to which Europe and the UK continue to back Ukraine. The next US Administration will be pulling out and/or settling with Vlad for some (obscene) definition of 'peace.'

Does Ukraine have sufficient allies in its own hemisphere and will they help hold the line?

 

[Bonusround]

How many more nuclear armed states are we going to see because of this? An isolationist America that backs away from NATO and withdraws its nuclear shield, or even hints at doing that, will have a bunch of countries looking at what happened to Ukraine after they gave up their nukes and think they really need big splodey things. Poland probably? Germany maybe?

Would Sweden? Japan can in a heartbeat. South Korea. Ukraine has the know-how and impending incentive.

 

[wireframed]

I'm incredibly depressed at the prospects for us in Europe, as a Danish citizen.

I predict we'll have to face or deal with:

• A global recession from tariffs and general boneheaded US policy
• Russia solidifying gains in Ukraine and preparing to take more east-block countries once they lick their wounds
• China gaining more geopolitical influence and filling the vacuum left by mismanagement of US foreign policy
• Palestineans being even more fucked

The last won't affect me personally but it is still depressing.

The one positive might be lower interest rates since Trump will definitely push the Fed into lowering them, and that usually affects rates in Europe as well, but that's a damn small consolation when the economy in general will be in the shitter.

 

[Scotttheking]

Issue one: the extent to which Europe and the UK continue to back Ukraine. The next US Administration will be pulling out and/or settling with Vlad for some (obscene) definition of 'peace.'

Does Ukraine have sufficient allies in its own hemisphere and will they help hold the line?

I hope so hard that a ton of equipment goes to Ukraine in the next 2 months, but am not hopeful it really will. I think they will back Ukraine because if not, Russia will keep pushing.

 

[passivesmoking]

Well if you're in Ukraine, you're probably now fucked. Get out if you can.

In fact, if you're in any former Soviet state you're probably now fucked.

NATO is fucked.

Countries in Asia that depend on US defence like Taiwan and Japan are fucked.

Palestine and Lebanon are even more fucked than they already are.

Democracy around the world might be fucked.

 

[yd]

Would Sweden? Japan can in a heartbeat. South Korea. Ukraine has the know-how and impending incentive.

Bingo, I said it in the other thread. Japan should be on this immediately along with SK. China will bitch and moan but if you run around bullying everyone in your neighborhood, don't be surprised when they want some self defense. Heck, there could be an Asian version of NATO in the works as well as a NATO without Can/US as well. No one should be relying on the US for anything - and the US should now not even think any ally will do something they are not liking in order to satisfy the US for the 'global good'. Its fyigm everywhere and if anything, I see allies grouping to exclude the US in separate regional groups because why would you want US interference.

 

[Bonusround]

Bingo, I said it in the other thread. Japan should be on this immediately along with SK. China will bitch and moan but if you run around bullying everyone in your neighborhood, don't be surprised when they want some self defense. Heck, there could be an Asian version of NATO in the works as well as a NATO without Can/US as well. No one should be relying on the US for anything - and the US should now not even think any ally will do something they are not liking in order to satisfy the US for the 'global good'. Its fyigm everywhere and if anything, I see allies grouping to exclude the US in separate regional groups because why would you want US interference.

I wonder how Trump will treat the Pacific differently from Europe. He's buddy-buddy with Putin but has no love for China.

 

[Scotttheking]

I wonder how Trump will treat the Pacific different from Europe. He's buddy-buddy with Putin but has no love for China.

Hard on China, but in a generally bumbling fashion that Xi can manipulate. Ler’s see what tariffs do when the vast majority of our consumer electronics are produced there.

 

[theevilsharpie]

Issue one: the extent to which Europe and the UK continue to back Ukraine. The next US Administration will be pulling out and/or settling with Vlad for some (obscene) definition of 'peace.'

Does Ukraine have sufficient allies in its own hemisphere and will they help hold the line?

Over the past two years, we've seen a lot of Ukraine's partner states wait to see how the wind is blowing in the US before committing (e.g., tanks, long-range missiles, etc.). Most recently has been South Korea waiting to see how the US reacts to North Korea's participation in Ukraine before committing to supplying arms.

I'm sure that with the US ending their support of Ukraine, that other states will also end their support (or at least significantly curtail it). We might even witness the start of this shift before Trump takes office.

 

[InternetPerson]

Prediction: Trump will push Ukraine into a settlement that is highly favourable to Russia

 

[Bonusround]

Prediction: Trump will push Ukraine into a settlement that is highly favourable to Russia

Quite the crystal ball you've got there.

 

[arcite]

Been hearing from people who work in the state department (and contractors), it's like a wake. Many expect huge cuts in funding, outright evisceration of entire programs, projects, you name it. A total blood bath. Much of the goodwill and complex relationships (ie. SOFT POWER diplomacy) the US has built up through decades of foreign assistance will probably vanish.

 

[BigP]

I am by no means one of the great geopolitical minds of my generation. I’m not even a mediocre one. But I had some thoughts even before this thread was started and I think I just wanted to put them out here so I can look back (hopefully) and see just how wrong I am. Where to start?

1) The Middle East is going to get spicy. Immediately. Perhaps even tomorrow. The military conflict with Iran will escalate and I’m afraid that any real hope for a peaceful Palestine resolution is no more. I think they’re going to keep genociding with impunity.
2) I can’t predict how the petrostate side of that will go since we would block them from trying to intervene against Israel and they’re dependent on selling oil to the world for basically everything. I’m sure that someone will do something short sighted.
3) Ukraine. No surprises here. They will be pressured to settle with Russia for pretty much everything Putin wants and I would expect them to do so and save what they can.
4) NATO is going to be fragile at best if we stay in “nominally.” There’s not going to be (and shouldn’t be) much trust that the US will be the bedrock we’ve been so far. As of right now I take a bit of encouragement that I don’t think Russia will be able to exploit this effectively, especially for now. Same if we withdraw or something, I only expect a lot of sound and fury but not a lot of action. For now.
5) China will make a move on Taiwan within the next 4 years. Lower confidence here but I truly believe that they would go for it if they can manipulate Trump effectively, which should be trivial.
6) High chance of global recession due to near certain chance for one here at home. One, we’re due for one. Two, Republican governments are really bad at fiscal responsibility and it may get harder to sell Treasuries to make up the deficit. This would allow space for China to play more games, I expect.
7) Climate change. Progress here will stagnate but I actually think we won’t backslide too much, if any, because the economics for renewables are now well entrenched. I do expect fossil fuel extraction to get let off the leash and any shenanigans from 2) will make things interesting but oil is always crazy volatile (which is why I left that industry when I got laid off…).
8) Everything everywhere all at once. That movie was more entertaining than anything we’re about to live through…

 

[Scotttheking]

Been hearing from people who work in the state department (and contractors), it's like a wake. Many expect huge cuts in funding, outright evisceration of entire programs, projects, you name it. A total blood bath. Much of the goodwill and complex relationships (ie. SOFT POWER diplomacy) the US has built up through decades of foreign assistance will probably vanish.

I was there in 2016. This is going to be worse. Good reminder to check in with people. However, the foreign service is tenacious. Some will leave, then come back later. Others will stick through it. Others…

 

[theevilsharpie]

5) China will make a move on Taiwan within the next 4 years. Lower confidence here but I truly believe that they would go for it if they can manipulate Trump effectively, which should be trivial.

This is one prediction that I'm reasonably sure won't come to pass.

Between JD Vance, Elon Musk, and the crypto bros, you've got quite a few influential people in Trump's orbit that would suffer if TSMC were to become suddenly and permanently unavailable.

The obvious solution would be to shore up domestic semiconductor manufacturing (likely via Intel), but that's not going particularly great, and there's not any immediate domestic substitutes.

I predict that a more likely outcome will be China doing some saber-rattling and the Trump administration resorting to a combo of bribes and threats of sanctions to ease them off an invasion. Meanwhile, I'd expect Taiwan to do everything in their power to build working nuclear weapons to prepare for the day when the US can produce modern semiconductors in sufficient quantities.

Of course, this would be the rational thing to do, which is a dangerous assumption with a Trump administration running things.

 

[blindbear]

It is still very difficult to take Taiwan ever without USA interfering. Crossing the sea is not easy.

 

[Bonusround]

Meanwhile, I'd expect Taiwan to do everything in their power to build working nuclear weapons ...

Agree with the bulk of your post, but Taiwan developing nukes would be an instant red line triggering immediate Chinese action.

 

[arcite]

Egypt plays 3d chess. They have the peace treaty with the US and Israel, but they also do business with Russia and China (Russia loaned Egypt $25 billion to build a nuclear power plant, Egypt is buying fighter jets from China).

Egypt plays the middle road, they don't want any war, nor can they afford it. Plus if you read the history of the region, there is treachery around every corner. A friend today is a potential enemy tomorrow. It's also an influence game (ie. Remember the Menendez corruption scandal?). They will want to make a deal with Trump over Gaza...and Trump also sees himself as the great deal maker. .It's anyone's guess how that will go.

The sad thing is, none of the concernd parties care that greatly for the plight of the Palestinians, they are just a chip on the gameboard.

 

[wireframed]

I am by no means one of the great geopolitical minds of my generation. I’m not even a mediocre one. But I had some thoughts even before this thread was started and I think I just wanted to put them out here so I can look back (hopefully) and see just how wrong I am. Where to start?

1) The Middle East is going to get spicy. Immediately. Perhaps even tomorrow. The military conflict with Iran will escalate and I’m afraid that any real hope for a peaceful Palestine resolution is no more. I think they’re going to keep genociding with impunity.
2) I can’t predict how the petrostate side of that will go since we would block them from trying to intervene against Israel and they’re dependent on selling oil to the world for basically everything. I’m sure that someone will do something short sighted.
3) Ukraine. No surprises here. They will be pressured to settle with Russia for pretty much everything Putin wants and I would expect them to do so and save what they can.
4) NATO is going to be fragile at best if we stay in “nominally.” There’s not going to be (and shouldn’t be) much trust that the US will be the bedrock we’ve been so far. As of right now I take a bit of encouragement that I don’t think Russia will be able to exploit this effectively, especially for now. Same if we withdraw or something, I only expect a lot of sound and fury but not a lot of action. For now.
5) China will make a move on Taiwan within the next 4 years. Lower confidence here but I truly believe that they would go for it if they can manipulate Trump effectively, which should be trivial.
6) High chance of global recession due to near certain chance for one here at home. One, we’re due for one. Two, Republican governments are really bad at fiscal responsibility and it may get harder to sell Treasuries to make up the deficit. This would allow space for China to play more games, I expect.
7) Climate change. Progress here will stagnate but I actually think we won’t backslide too much, if any, because the economics for renewables are now well entrenched. I do expect fossil fuel extraction to get let off the leash and any shenanigans from 2) will make things interesting but oil is always crazy volatile (which is why I left that industry when I got laid off…).
8) Everything everywhere all at once. That movie was more entertaining than anything we’re about to live through…

I forgot this one. I don't think the climate battle will suffer TOO much, but I think the US definitely will. We are already at a point in Denmark where it's cheaper to generate power through wind and solar most of the time, and it will only accelerate as time goes on. Fossil fuel is on the way out and nothing can change that. China is making enormous investments in green energy, though they are doing it as much because they see where the winds are blowing, as because it helps fight climate change.

The only thing Trump's regressive 1950'ies energy policies will do, is leave the US left behind when everyone else has transitioned and none of the important green energy companies are American.

The top 3 wind turbine manufacturers are Danish, German and Chinese. The top 3 solar panel manufacturers are Chinese. Soon the biggest car companies will probably be Chinese.

While it may still be too little, too late, the ship has sailed on whether green energy is the future.

 

[Dr_Olerif]

Been hearing from people who work in the state department (and contractors), it's like a wake. Many expect huge cuts in funding, outright evisceration of entire programs, projects, you name it. A total blood bath. Much of the goodwill and complex relationships (ie. SOFT POWER diplomacy) the US has built up through decades of foreign assistance will probably vanish.

I can only believe you're right on this, in my mind as a 'not american' person (and that is a whole seperate can of worms with the xenophobia consistently expressed by the President Elect) I can only see the US right now as not a reliable ally, and frankly have no faith that the USA is not going to be an adversary to the rest of the world where it's in the USA's interests to be so.

This is tangential to the fact that the USA is possibly now not a viable trade ally as the concern is that the US is going to further harm it's own Rule Of Law to the point that there is no surety to the fairness of the legal system in the US. See the kleptocratic actions against various foreign investments in Russia in recent history.

We sure do live in Interesting Times.

 

[Neverm1nd]

How many more nuclear armed states are we going to see because of this? An isolationist America that backs away from NATO and withdraws its nuclear shield, or even hints at doing that, will have a bunch of countries looking at what happened to Ukraine after they gave up their nukes and think they really need big splodey things. Poland probably? Germany maybe?

For the EU, the idea of EU jointly funding the French nuclear forces has been kicked around. That would sidestep the NPT, but still extend a nuclear umbrella over the entire EU (something the French has already stated is the case, but this would beef up their capabilities).

 

[Neverm1nd]

Prediction: Trump will push Ukraine into a settlement that is highly favourable to Russia

I don't think he can. Ukraine won't surrender just because it looks like they're losing. Any settlement in Russia's favor is just a postponement of the war for a year or two, and the Ukrainians know it. My guess is they'd rather go down fighting, and then launch the insurgency of the century.

 

[Happysin]

My wife and I are traveling to Taiwan in a week to visit her extended family. Suddenly, it feels like a farewell tour.

 

[arcite]

The UK Tories got rid of their foreign development program Dfid https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Department_for_International_Development

Apparently the new Labour government might reconstitute it, but nothing yet.

The same could be done with the USAID and it's $28 billion budget.

If Trump controls all levers of government....what is to stop him?

 

[arcite]

I don't think he can. Ukraine won't surrender just because it looks like they're losing. Any settlement in Russia's favor is just a postponement of the war for a year or two, and the Ukrainians know it. My guess is they'd rather go down fighting, and then launch the insurgency of the century.

I like the sentiment. But that will be like Poland fighting the Soviet/Nazi invasion. Ukraine is bankrupt, they are relying on the charity of allies. I don't think anyone has the balls to step up and support them if the US pulls the plug....France? UK?

 

[Happysin]

I like the sentiment. But that will be like Poland fighting the Soviet/Nazi invasion. Ukraine is bankrupt, they are relying on the charity of allies. I don't think anyone has the balls to step up and support them if the US pulls the plug....France? UK?

People have to remember that Ukraine and Zelensky have been very explicit that any peace deal that includes giving up territory must also contain enforceable guarantees of protection, or there's no point. The more likely outcome now is as was said, lose outright, then fight an insurrection.

 

[Neverm1nd]

I like the sentiment. But that will be like Poland fighting the Soviet/Nazi invasion. Ukraine is bankrupt, they are relying on the charity of allies. I don't think anyone has the balls to step up and support them if the US pulls the plug....France? UK?

The US is about half of the military aid, or a third of the military supplies in total. Committed financial aid, the US is about 25% of the total. That's a lot, but not as much as one can be led to believe by the media sometimes... There will definitely be a decrease, but I believe the Ukrainians will choose to continue to fight regardless.

 

[arcite]

People have to remember that Ukraine and Zelensky have been very explicit that any peace deal that includes giving up territory must also contain enforceable guarantees of protection, or there's no point. The more likely outcome now is as was said, lose outright, then fight an insurrection.

Of course you are right. Russia will hunt the Ukrainian government and military officials to the ends of the earth and assassinate every one of them. So, fighting is the only sensible option. But it would be nice if they had some outside help.

 

[TheMeanDM]

If Donald does carry through on his promises (or his ghouls are able to enact theirs)....just a few things off the top of my head

1) many government workers will likely be fired, adding to the unemployment figures/burden
-- 1a) leading to increased strain on social programs like SNAP, MEDICAID, etc.

2) if migrants are indeed deported (or if many of those who are capable of doing so, flee the US) food prices will increase dramatically and food supplies will decrease
--2a) face it, US citizens don't want to work as produce harvesters or animal processors, so there will be fewer employees left to harvest/process

3) the tariffs on Chinese goods (or will he go crazy and slap it on all imported goods?) will, of course, drive prices up for everything consumer related
--3a) but it seems that GOP have zero self-realization when it comes to seeing the consequences of their actions as being, well, their fault

 

[theevilsharpie]

I don't think he can. Ukraine won't surrender just because it looks like they're losing. Any settlement in Russia's favor is just a postponement of the war for a year or two, and the Ukrainians know it. My guess is they'd rather go down fighting, and then launch the insurgency of the century.

Ukraine can't fight Russia with courage alone, and they already had serious manpower issues during the last US pause in aid due to Ukrainians not willingly going to fight without the equipment they'd need to have a chance at success.

And that's not to mention that Ukraine is heavily dependent on foreign aid to keep the state funded.

i can't see Ukraine's partner states continuing to provide military aid to Ukraine if the US stops, because other partners simply don't have enough equipment for Ukraine to win without donating so much that there own national defense is impaired, especially if the viability of NATO (and other overseas military alliances) is in serious question.

I can potentially see the Ukrainian government and European partner states negotiating a deal to allow a substantial increase in the amount of Ukrainian refugees allowed into the EU, in an attempt to deny Russia the Ukrainian population should the day come when Russia demands an unconditional surrender and Ukraine is unable to continue their organized resistance.

 

[PuglyWont]

If Donald does carry through on his promises (or his ghouls are able to enact theirs)....just a few things off the top of my head

1) many government workers will likely be fired, adding to the unemployment figures/burden
-- 1a) leading to increased strain on social programs like SNAP, MEDICAID, etc.

2) if migrants are indeed deported (or if many of those who are capable of doing so, flee the US) food prices will increase dramatically and food supplies will decrease
--2a) face it, US citizens don't want to work as produce harvesters or animal processors, so there will be fewer employees left to harvest/process

3) the tariffs on Chinese goods (or will he go crazy and slap it on all imported goods?) will, of course, drive prices up for everything consumer related
--3a) but it seems that GOP have zero self-realization when it comes to seeing the consequences of their actions as being, well, their fault

That's kind of my only hope, that he changes too many things too fast and we start having serious problems in the first year and people get snapped out of it. I just wish there was a way that didn't cause pain and suffering... but I don't think there is. It just has to fail spectacularly really quickly so he loses the popular sheen...and Americans snap out of their stupor... that anything he plans is a good idea.

 

[TheColinous]

I can't help but think that the US has chose Liz Truss' politics, without having Liz Truss' brains. Unfortunately, the lettuce will wilt before Trump.

 

[Citrine]

That's kind of my only hope, that he changes too many things too fast and we start having serious problems in the first year and people get snapped out of it. I just wish there was a way that didn't cause pain and suffering... but I don't think there is. It just has to fail spectacularly really quickly so he loses the popular sheen...and Americans snap out of their stupor... that anything he plans is a good idea.

Accelerationism is a dumb idea, but the bad effects are almost certainly going to happen anyway since we appear to be, uh, accelerated.

So let's just hope they fall disproportionately on the people who voted for Trump. They voted for it, they can get it long and hard.

 

[wireframed]

If Donald does carry through on his promises (or his ghouls are able to enact theirs)....just a few things off the top of my head

1) many government workers will likely be fired, adding to the unemployment figures/burden
-- 1a) leading to increased strain on social programs like SNAP, MEDICAID, etc.

2) if migrants are indeed deported (or if many of those who are capable of doing so, flee the US) food prices will increase dramatically and food supplies will decrease
--2a) face it, US citizens don't want to work as produce harvesters or animal processors, so there will be fewer employees left to harvest/process

3) the tariffs on Chinese goods (or will he go crazy and slap it on all imported goods?) will, of course, drive prices up for everything consumer related
--3a) but it seems that GOP have zero self-realization when it comes to seeing the consequences of their actions as being, well, their fault

The construction industry is also heavily dependent on migrant workers, so that housing crisis they want to fix by kicking out immigrants? Gonna be a LOT worse as nothing gets built.

But that is one campaign promise I strongly doubt will ever get enacted. At best, it's a sword hanging over every migrant's head, as well as a continued policy point Republicans can keep harping on without ever doing anything about it. I don't think very many Republicans in government are dumb enough to think it won't be a disaster for them personally. It's just useful rhetoric to rile up the southern states. And of course it allows Republicans to be terrible people without actually suffering the consequences of it.

 

[Neverm1nd]

Ukraine can't fight Russia with courage alone, and they already had serious manpower issues during the last US pause in aid due to Ukrainians not willingly going to fight without the equipment they'd need to have a chance at success.

Again, the US is one third of the Ukrainian supplies. The last time US aid ceased, it was also on the tail end of a Ukrainian offensive, leaving Ukrainian forces severely depleted, as they believed new aid was coming. Also, Ukrainian domestic production has increased drastically since then. A year ago is not now.

And that's not to mention that Ukraine is heavily dependent on foreign aid to keep the state funded.

Of which the US provides little. The majority of financial aid is from other countries.

i can't see Ukraine's partner states continuing to provide military aid to Ukraine if the US stops, because other partners simply don't have enough equipment for Ukraine to win without donating so much that there own national defense is impaired, especially if the viability of NATO (and other overseas military alliances) is in serious question.

I would disagree. Keep in mind that the EU countries, for example, buys military equipment each year for about the same amount of money as all foreign military aid to Ukraine over the past nearly three years.

I can potentially see the Ukrainian government and European partner states negotiating a deal to allow a substantial increase in the amount of Ukrainian refugees allowed into the EU, in an attempt to deny Russia the Ukrainian population should the day come when Russia demands an unconditional surrender and Ukraine is unable to continue their organized resistance.

Either way, there's a Ukraine thread, and I'd happily continue this there, but I think we're hijacking this thread if we delve too deep into Ukraine here.