Consequences of the US 2024 Presidential Election: Global Geopolitics Edition

DarthSlack

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I kind of expect him to reinstate the gold standard next.

It is on the Project 2025 list of things to do. They try to hide it by calling it "commodity backed currency", but they're talking about the gold standard. And since Trump reflexively signs anything his viziers put in front of him, this one is pretty likely.
 

spacekobra

Refiner of the Quarter
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No he isn’t. He’s the current embodiment, but this path to crazy has been going on a long time and isn’t going to stop without active intervention.
have to agree, this flavour of populism is just growing every day. Canada's Trump-lite is hosting "huge" rallies. There's nothing more uniting than highlighting all the problems and offering to fix it. Especially when you have the media on your side doom and glooming any sort of constituent. Politics used to be hey we all want the same thing and disagree with the best way to get here, this is a good middle ground. Now its lines drawn in the sand, and whoever gives off the best vibes is the winner. Trump leaves, somebody will do the exact same thing. Power is a tasty drug.
 
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Klinn

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IncrHulk

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Australia has already toyed with the idea of forcing Meta and Google to pay for the IP (news content) that they publish. It's called the News Media Bargaining Code, and they hate it.
Canada has entered the chat.

The right-wing, of course, insists that the fact Meta blocks news sites and links in Canada is the government censoring, not Meta refusing to negotiate fair use pricing, like Google has.
 

N4M8-

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It is quite substantially democratic. And again, Trump won outright in 2024 so there's no electoral college excuse. The problem is that morons who takes Tim Pool seriously can also vote.
What part of, "It is a technicality in the case of the last election, but Trump would not have been president to begin with with one person, one vote." was not clear?
 
When he was elected in 2016 no one in their right minds thought he made any sense. But technically he did run by the rules. He won outright in 2024. But studies showed that the people who paid more attention would vote for Kamala. Expertise matters in everything in life, especially politics, but in a democracy system the people who don't pay any attention and don't put any work into educating themselves have just as much a voice as people who do pay attention.

The end result is bad leadership and bad policies.

Because face it, Trump is a democratically elected president. He is the result of a democratic system. The democratic system then is the problem.
I've previously argued that Trump is quite possibly the first President in a long time, perhaps ever, who is actually representative of the majority of Americans. He's the quintessential American.

Despite that, I don't think considerate, productive, innovative, diligent people should have to be in a suicide pact with and subordinated by throngs of mendacious morons just because they're also within some arbitrary lines on a map.
 

bjn

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This is like the Pearl Harbor of economic policy. It's wildly unorthodox and radical. And like Pearl Harbor, it is ultimately a losing strike which eventually dooms the empire.

Conventional wisdom is overwhelmingly most often right.
They don’t care if the empire collapses, so long as they can remain on top indefinitely.
 

N4M8-

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Despite that, I don't think considerate, productive, innovative, diligent people should have to be in a suicide pact with and subordinated by throngs of mendacious morons just because they're also within some arbitrary lines on a map.
So how do you achieve such given the widespread mass of morons?
 

Tijger

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So how do you achieve such given the widespread mass of morons?

Pin your hopes on bird flu migrating to humans? Yeah, I know, flippant and not productive but I have no idea how you can get the morons to understand they're being morons in a climate where they are served by their own media bubbles who tell them they're heading for a golden age.
 
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CommanderJameson

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What part of, "It is a technicality in the case of the last election, but Trump would not have been president to begin with with one person, one vote." was not clear
Dunno, but you prolly want to move this to the domestic thread before @herko seizes the opportunity to slather your face in Tyranny Yellow™.
 
herko
herko
It's only Tyranny Yellow if it comes from the Tyrénne region of France, otherwise it's just sparkling moderation

DarthSlack

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Pin your hopes on bird flu migrating to humans? Yeah, I know, flippant and not productive but I have no idea how you can get the morons to understand they're being morons in a climate where they are served by their own media bubbles who tell them they're heading for a golden age.

Bingo. In the past, morons had difficulty finding other morons because, well, they're morons. Made it tough for them to coordinate. Nowadays there's entire media empires, both broadcast and social, that bring the moronity to them. Hand delivered. They just have to do what morons always do: Follow directions.
 

N4M8-

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Pin your hopes on bird flu migrating to humans? Yeah, I know, flippant and not productive but I have no idea how you can get the morons to understand they're being morons in a climate where they are served by their own media bubbles who tell them they're heading for a golden age.

The only things I could come up involved crimes against humanity.
 

blindbear

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Bingo. In the past, morons had difficulty finding other morons because, well, they're morons. Made it tough for them to coordinate. Nowadays there's entire media empires, both broadcast and social, that bring the moronity to them. Hand delivered. They just have to do what morons always do: Follow directions.

Uh...I think we are creating more morons in general. I am not sure if our education has failed or human are just bad at learning.
 

karolus

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Yes he is. His followers are in an actual cult. They worship him. He has leveraged the most stupid among us to wield threats to keep the "moderate" Republicans in line through threats of primaries and violence.

If he were to choke on a cheeseburger, his whole house of cards would come crashing down. No other right winger can pull this off.
Which "moderate" Republicans?

Those were being forced out of the picture even before Trump entered the scene. Newt Gingrich and his "Republican Revolution" of the '90s was instrumental in bringing this about. At that time, it was to have a party marching in lockstep to leadership in order to make objectives easer to meet. It did create a situation for someone like Trump—who has no compunction breaking norms or standards of decency—to take full advantage of.
 

blindbear

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Right now, Trump is trying to use Soft Power as a hammer to force others to do his bidding. At what point would he consider the Hard Power instead? That is what concern me if I am not a USAers. Between tariff and military power, USA can also cut access to USA dollars through sanction. I have to wonder would Trump reach for sanction power when tariff does not work.

A lot of USA's soft power will be lost. I do wonder would USA keep the reserved currency status.
 
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karolus

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Right now, Trump is trying to use Soft Power as a hammer to force other to do his bidding. At what point would he consider the Hard Power instead? That is why concern me if I am not a USAers. Between tariff and military power, USA can also cut access to USA dollars through sanction. I have to wonder would Trump reach for sanction power when tariff does not work.

A lot of USA's soft power will be lost. I do wonder would USA keep the reserved currency status.
Markets depend upon trust, predictability and fair play. Adam Smith noted that—observing how difficult it was for economic growth in Medieval Europe due to this. If Trump starts playing games with the markets like he has with other dealings, he's risking stability of the Dollar. Warren Buffett warned about this in his recent annual report. Once the US losses dollar hegemony, it's game over.
 

sporkman

Wise, Aged Ars Veteran
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Pin your hopes on bird flu migrating to humans? Yeah, I know, flippant and not productive but I have no idea how you can get the morons to understand they're being morons in a climate where they are served by their own media bubbles who tell them they're heading for a golden age.
Right. Maga will MAHA itself to death. There will be a mass die-off of these guys as they shun vaccines and modern medicine in favor of vitamin A and drinking bleach.
Markets depend upon trust, predictability and fair play. Adam Smith noted that—observing how difficult it was for economic growth in Medieval Europe due to this. If Trump starts playing games with the markets like he has with other dealings, he's risking stability of the Dollar. Warren Buffett warned about this in his recent annual report. Once the US losses dollar hegemony, it's game over.
Trump deserves to be removed one way or another. Impeachment doesn't seem likely, nor does the 25th amendment. Hopefully he does choke on a mcdonald's burger one evening. Hegseth doing a coup on Trump? Can we dream?
 

Tijger

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There is no way the US basically removing itself from international trade does not hurt the rest of the world but surely, assuming the other nations of the world don't tariff each other they will come out better off than the US, or will they?

The EU wont pu extrat tariffs on China because Trump has, no. Ditto for Canada, Mercosur or Mexico. I dont think they would lower current tariffs either though but who knows what happens now, we're a bit in uncharted territory here.
 

herko

Impoverished space lobster “doctor”
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Right. Maga will MAHA itself to death. There will be a mass die-off of these guys as they shun vaccines and modern medicine in favor of vitamin A and drinking bleach.

Trump deserves to be removed one way or another. Impeachment doesn't seem likely, nor does the 25th amendment. Hopefully he does choke on a mcdonald's burger one evening. Hegseth doing a coup on Trump? Can we dream?
/// OFFICIAL MODERATION NOTICE ///


Here’s some sparkling moderation for you.

Stop. Posting. Domestic. Stuff. In. The. Global. Thread. Stop. Stop. It’s not just because it’s off-topic, although it IS off-topic. It’s also because it contributes exactly zero to this conversation. You’re frustrated with Trump and think he should be removed, well duh. The vast majority of posters here think so. Go to one of the other seven million threads that are for commiserating about Trump doing Trump things in the USA.

I’ve posted this warning repeatedly and I will post it again, unfortunately. I’m giving you a two-week timeout from this thread. The next time it’s an OW and it’s permanent.
 

Neverm1nd

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The EU wont pu extrat tariffs on China because Trump has, no. Ditto for Canada, Mercosur or Mexico. I dont think they would lower current tariffs either though but who knows what happens now, we're a bit in uncharted territory here.
The EU has accelerated free trade agreement negotiations with both India and Mercosur, aiming to close both this year, and then there's things like this:

"Vice Premier He stated China is willing to work with the EU to enhance dialogue and exchanges, properly handle trade and economic differences, and promote a “healthy and stable” development of economic and trade relations.

He also emphasised the need to jointly resist unilateralism and protectionism while safeguarding the multilateral trade system"


The timing isn't a coincidence.
 

Tijger

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The EU has accelerated free trade agreement negotiations with both India and Mercosur, aiming to close both this year, and then there's things like this:

"Vice Premier He stated China is willing to work with the EU to enhance dialogue and exchanges, properly handle trade and economic differences, and promote a “healthy and stable” development of economic and trade relations.

He also emphasised the need to jointly resist unilateralism and protectionism while safeguarding the multilateral trade system"


The timing isn't a coincidence.

No, its not a coincidence, I think, I would also say that both Mercosur and India have a very big interest in getting such a deal done.
 

CPX

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Right now, Trump is trying to use Soft Power as a hammer to force others to do his bidding. At what point would he consider the Hard Power instead? That is what concern me if I am not a USAers. Between tariff and military power, USA can also cut access to USA dollars through sanction. I have to wonder would Trump reach for sanction power when tariff does not work.

A lot of USA's soft power will be lost. I do wonder would USA keep the reserved currency status.

I argue that blanket surprise tariffs are an exercise of hard power. There was not even any negotiation for an exchange. The bluster that got us to the USMCA was soft power, albeit with hard power rhetoric.
 
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tigas

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Meanwhile, this has a few days already, but if it was posted I've missed it. China is moving in wherever USAID has pulled out, as predicted by everyone.
https://www.businessinsider.com/chi...ian-aid-funding-development-assistance-2025-3
The effective shutdown of the US Agency for International Development has already created openings for China to fill.

China appears to be launching new programs across several developing countries where USAID has left — as analysts forecast to Business Insider in February.

In Cambodia, one of the countries most hit by USAID's pullout, China has announced new funding programs for a variety of causes, including child healthcare, nutrition, sanitation, and land mine clearing.

In Nepal, Chinese Communist Party officials have told the country's leaders that Beijing is willing to provide funding, according to The Annapurna Express.
Nepal. Holy shit. That's not letting the vampire past your door or anything.
 

blindbear

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Right now, Trump is trying to use Soft Power as a hammer to force others to do his bidding. At what point would he consider the Hard Power instead? That is what concern me if I am not a USAers. Between tariff and military power, USA can also cut access to USA dollars through sanction. I have to wonder would Trump reach for sanction power when tariff does not work.

A lot of USA's soft power will be lost. I do wonder would USA keep the reserved currency status.
It is quite weird because the noise we are making—I guess it is soft power?—is demands that countries basically can’t acquiesce to. Canada as a state. Give us Greenland. Countries don’t give up territory sovereignty willingly.

What is it really, when we try to negotiate for something that is not on the soft power table? (This stuff is only on the hard power table, in the sense that everything is on the hard power table).
 

blindbear

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In traditional lore, vampires could enter a house only when invited inside. Tigas used a metaphor to say that Nepal invited the vampire in its home to take the place of USAID.

/pedant

Vampire implies that inviting China is a bad decision. Europe is not interested in this kind of investment in other countries. Your option as a small underdeveloped country is trying to do it on your own and get help from China at this point. USA is pretty much either checkout or ask for even higher price than China.
 

wrylachlan

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I think what’s so funny about the way the Trump team calculated the tariffs (trade deficit over total trade) is that it doesn’t include the other side’s tariffs at all. So when China slaps on 34% tariffs, the Trump algorithm does… nothing. These people are not smart.
 

tigas

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Vampire implies that inviting China is a bad decision. Europe is not interested in this kind of investment in other countries. Your option as a small underdeveloped country is trying to do it on your own and get help from China at this point. USA is pretty much either checkout or ask for even higher price than China.
I don't think the USA asks anything in return for USAID that's commensurate to what China did to Tibet, just next door to Nepal.
 

Shavano

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Gary Patterson

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those are all problems but they aren't the direct system which selected trump. the direct system is democracy. democratic voting is responsible for Trump being elected and trump being elected was a bad outcome.
The democratic system relies on voters having good information about candidates.

That is the entire focus of Fox News, OANN and others - to distort the information about politics and ensure the majority of people don’t understand or don’t know enough about their candidates.

And it’s worked beyond the wildest dreams of Murdoch et al.

The problem is not with the democratic system, it’s with the surrounding environment and the comprehensive and willing failure of any government to regulate standards.

(Edit) sorry, didn’t read as far as the mod post and lost track of which thread I was in.
 
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The United States is deep deep in fascist territory without acknowledging it.
Yep. It's all still, "What if (insert terrible fascist thing) were to happen? That would trigger a Constitutional crisis." where the thing in the blank has already happened a bunch of times.

It's just denial and delusional copium.
 

VividVerism

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The democratic system relies on voters having good information about candidates.

That is the entire focus of Fox News, OANN and others - to distort the information about politics and ensure the majority of people don’t understand or don’t know enough about their candidates.

And it’s worked beyond the wildest dreams of Murdoch et al.

The problem is not with the democratic system, it’s with the surrounding environment and the comprehensive and willing failure of any government to regulate standards.

(Edit) sorry, didn’t read as far as the mod post and lost track of which thread I was in.
I'm more than a little scared the Murdoch empire is global (saved it) and find myself wondering which democracy will be the next to self-immolate. I'm not convinced the US will be the only one.

As for whether democracy itself is up to the task or worth saving:

"Democracy is the worst form of government, aside from all the other governments we've tried already."

And "managed democracy" is literally the doublespeak term used for the satirical fascist government in Helldivers and Helldivers 2. A bit on the nose and I believe it was said unironically, so I certainly had a good eyeroll and a laugh at that.