Apple walks Ars through the iPad Pro’s A12X system on a chip

Apple's Anand Shimpi, Phil Schiller talk silicon—"This is really an Xbox One S class GPU."

Read the whole story

 

[tipoo]

The fact that it is this powerful tells me that they've got something big planned for iOS 13.

Even with the first 64 bit A7 already there was much scoffing at the "ridiculously overpowered" iPhone 5S.

"Nobody needs that much performance in a phone" was a frequent criticism from the Android camp. And yet, more than 5 years on the 5S still gets iOS12 and runs it perfectly well.

And it is likely that the current models will receive even longer support, so the performance is more likely designed to last through iOS13, 14, 15, 16, 17 and probably even beyond if Apple keeps increasing the supported timespan.

Supporting this -

iPhones started off with the kind of support life most Android phones hope to get now, and kept expanding it as performance got better.

 

[Constructor]

The fact that it is this powerful tells me that they've got something big planned for iOS 13.

Even with the first 64 bit A7 already there was much scoffing at the "ridiculously overpowered" iPhone 5S.

"Nobody needs that much performance in a phone" was a frequent criticism from the Android camp. And yet, more than 5 years on the 5S still gets iOS12 and runs it perfectly well.

And it is likely that the current models will receive even longer support, so the performance is more likely designed to last through iOS13, 14, 15, 16, 17 and probably even beyond if Apple keeps increasing the supported timespan.

Supporting this -

iPhones started off with the kind of support life most Android phones hope to get now, and kept expanding it as performance got better.

Ah, cool diagram.

iOS12 has kept all the same processors in support as iOS11, plus the new A12.

 

[ewelch]

even the platform’s biggest detractors recognize that the company is leading the market when it comes to mobile CPU and GPU performance

Well, the competent ones anyway. :facepalm:

 

[haar]

"For example, the A12X shares memory between the GPU and CPU, much like Intel's integrated GPUs in laptops but much unlike the discrete memory in an Xbox One. "

this is actually incorrect,
the Xbox one and PS4 have one 8gb pool of GDDR5 shared memory.
*source I am a gamedeveloper

NO, NO. the xbox one (NOT THE X) has ddr3 2133 8GBwith 32 MB esram...
the ps4 has a shared between the GPU and CPU of 8GB of 5500Mhz (effective, i believe the real clock rate is a quarter that, moot point, because all ddr4 memory is listed by its effective rate)

how can you be a game developer and not know the difference?

 

[Chemical Tribe]

The march to an ARM powered MacBook continues.

What's interesting is how much time was spent on the iPad's chipset and performance and how little was mentioned about the one in the new MacBook Air and Mac Mini. They spent more time talking about the T2 chip than the CPU, and only mentioned the name "Intel" once during the whole presentation.

Intel has fallen behind schedule in their chip development and it greatly affect's Apple's ability to deliver. Meanwhile, Apple's chip development has been exceeding all expectations.

Last year, I was pretty sure Apple wasn't thinking about switching to ARM for the Mac, but seeing the new iPad Pro, it looks like Apple is heading that direction.

It's amazing that Apple can make such an advanced chip yet cant be bothered to makea proper pro desktop. No, aios don't count.
It's all about where Apple wants us to go. They are about to find out that the professional communities don't budge, ever.

 

[Constructor]

The march to an ARM powered MacBook continues.

What's interesting is how much time was spent on the iPad's chipset and performance and how little was mentioned about the one in the new MacBook Air and Mac Mini. They spent more time talking about the T2 chip than the CPU, and only mentioned the name "Intel" once during the whole presentation.

Intel has fallen behind schedule in their chip development and it greatly affect's Apple's ability to deliver. Meanwhile, Apple's chip development has been exceeding all expectations.

Last year, I was pretty sure Apple wasn't thinking about switching to ARM for the Mac, but seeing the new iPad Pro, it looks like Apple is heading that direction.

It's amazing that Apple can make such an advanced chip yet cant be bothered to makea proper pro desktop. No, aios don't count.
It's all about where Apple wants us to go. They are about to find out that the professional communities don't budge, ever.

The mini is actually not that bad for many applications, and the iMac Pro is already in heavy use and does that very well, apparently.

Only the modular Mac Pro has been announced for 2019.

 

[tipoo]

" that it matches the GPU power of the Xbox One S game console with no fan and at a fraction of the size; "

I like that the article dissects this a bit...

However, this is really out of context in terms of performance and actual performance.

Technically the Intel Integrated 6xx series of GPU are 'faster' than the hardware equivalent of the Xbox One S GPU - and they also run with no fan and at a fraction of the size.

There are literally Core M class Integrated 615 GPUs that are also faster, which in Tablet and PC technology is a bit 'dated' in 2018.

This means the iPad's A12X is 'catching' up to the LOW END Surface Pro 4 m3 in terms of GPU performance.


Also the myths around the Xbox One and One S GPUs are still around, which is surprising.

The Xbox One GPU meets the PS4 in terms of gaming performance - just as the XB360/PS3 generation they are nearly equal, and just like the previous generation, the XB360 GPU 'technical specifications' on 'paper' were significantly slower than the PS3's GPU.

There's a lot to unpack there.

How is the PS4-XBO GPU difference a myth, when it materializes on actual games with consistency? 900P on the original XBO hardware, 1080P on the PS4, is a combination we're all very used to, just like you would expect with the decrease in GPU execution hardware on the XBO.

And I also don't know what metric you're calling Intel IGPs as fast as the XBO on, there were pretty few crossing the 1Tflop metric, so even by the most rudimentary paper spec they're not there, and the picture only grows worse when you compare fill rate, ROPs, TMUs, bandwidth etc etc on the IGP side.

Surface Pro Core M3, XBO GPU performance? This?
https://www.techpowerup.com/gpu-specs/u ... -620.c2909

Equals this?
https://www.techpowerup.com/gpu-specs/x ... -gpu.c2086


I'm confused as to how you got to about all of your conclusions.

 

[Starviper]

But can it run Crysis?

 

[OrangeCream]

I wonder why, if Apple has such powerful GPU tech available, they don't put just the GPU components on a die and use that in their Mac line as the GPU instead of Intel graphics?

Because then they would have to get Intel to agree to integrate a custom GPU into an Intel SoC?

Who said anything about putting it on an SoC? There's Macbook Pros that include AMD graphics alongside Intel processors.

Well, you said 'put it on a die', so I interpreted it as 'the same die as the CPU'.

If you're saying, instead, 'Why not create a discrete GPU to replace the AMD GPU', I wouldn't have interpreted it the way I did.

So, why don't they create a discrete GPU? That requires a lot more infrastructure. What they have been doing is transplanting the entire ARM SoC. They are currently at T2, assumed to based on the 2016 A10. It's display happens to be the Touchbar on the MacBook Pros, as well as being used as a coprocessor for the iMac Pro. It very well may be that they are going to do exactly what you propose, but I suspect if they go down that route they will also take the opportunity to replace the Intel CPU at the same time.

 

[Questar]

Anand! Can't wait to give this a proper read, his stuff was great back when he was still at Anandtech.

Was? Don't care... It's still got his name! I remember reading his site at very beginning. Also Sharkey Express is remembered fondly.

Hate Apple with a passion but good for Anand!

Sharkey, HardOCP, Anandtech,MacNN, Ars used to be my top 5.

Now they all are shadows of their former selves. I rarely visit any of them now. Ars is just a big Amazon shill now.

The only site up and running since 1998 with the original poster is Blues News.

You rarely visit? I call BS, you're making a dozen troll posts a day.

 

[Questar]

The march to an ARM powered MacBook continues.

What's interesting is how much time was spent on the iPad's chipset and performance and how little was mentioned about the one in the new MacBook Air and Mac Mini. They spent more time talking about the T2 chip than the CPU, and only mentioned the name "Intel" once during the whole presentation.

Intel has fallen behind schedule in their chip development and it greatly affect's Apple's ability to deliver. Meanwhile, Apple's chip development has been exceeding all expectations.

Last year, I was pretty sure Apple wasn't thinking about switching to ARM for the Mac, but seeing the new iPad Pro, it looks like Apple is heading that direction.

It's amazing that Apple can make such an advanced chip yet cant be bothered to makea proper pro desktop. No, aios don't count.
It's all about where Apple wants us to go. They are about to find out that the professional communities don't budge, ever.

Why do you care, would you buy one?

 

[Chemical Tribe]

The march to an ARM powered MacBook continues.

What's interesting is how much time was spent on the iPad's chipset and performance and how little was mentioned about the one in the new MacBook Air and Mac Mini. They spent more time talking about the T2 chip than the CPU, and only mentioned the name "Intel" once during the whole presentation.

Intel has fallen behind schedule in their chip development and it greatly affect's Apple's ability to deliver. Meanwhile, Apple's chip development has been exceeding all expectations.

Last year, I was pretty sure Apple wasn't thinking about switching to ARM for the Mac, but seeing the new iPad Pro, it looks like Apple is heading that direction.

It's amazing that Apple can make such an advanced chip yet cant be bothered to makea proper pro desktop. No, aios don't count.
It's all about where Apple wants us to go. They are about to find out that the professional communities don't budge, ever.

The mini is actually not that bad for many applications, and the iMac Pro is already in heavy use and does that very well, apparently.

Only the modular Mac Pro has been announced for 2019.

You are missing my point. Schiller went on and on about how Apple is their own benchmark and will lap competitors 10 times.

Yet, is perfectly content to let the mac mini languish for 4 years with no updates whatsoever, and the mac pro hasn't seen much of anything either. As you can see, Apple's priorities are the iphone and ipad, since again, they have a new chance to push a much more locked down platform.

Look, I get it, ios has benefits for those who don't need all the extra features. That's nice and you won't find me complaining about that for the average user. BUT, you can't expect ios to fulfill the needs of the pro community. Sure, you can give it Photoshop, but tell me, why should anyone learn all over again a new workflow, force me to use a cloud storage option, and ditch the mouse for a pen, even if you use a pen input device on the desktop or other device?

And for me personally, you can give me all the HP/CPU/GPU you want, but if I can't play dolphin on it, can't video encode via handbrake on it, can't attach hard drives to it, it's useless to me. (And to be fair, this isn't an ios vs Windows or android argument. This is even just an ios vs OSX argument. Why switch over from even that, aside from letting the hardware languish?)

 

[ewelch]

But can it run Crysis?

Quake 3 fps numbers?

 

[DeerSteak]

Long time Ars readers may be familiar with the name Anand Shimpi - he was the founder of Anandtech.com, an excellent tech hardware website.

Congrats to Anand for leaving Anandtech with a strong legacy that has helped it stay current when other old-school sites like Slashdot have unfortunately faded somewhat.

Edit: Ninja'd x2!

He left the site he created? What sparked that? I don't normally hear many stories of creators leaving their projects.

(Honest question, no sarcasm intended.)

I don't think it was of any ill will. He just got a lot of attention for his expertise, got job offers, and took one of them.

I can see why. His site has a tremendous reach in technology. Any tech company would kill to have that sort of nortority on their side.

I don't normally follow creators like that close enough, that's why I was curious.

It's hard as hell to make money as a tech blogger. Apple likely dropped him an offer that was literally 2-3+ times what he was making on the site, had much better benefits, and likely fewer hours.

Anand was the first of what seems like a trend. Ryan Shrout literally just left PC Perspective to take a gig at Intel, and Scott Wasson left Tech Report for AMD in 2015. There are more but those two are relatively high-profile examples.

 

[Constructor]

i love how they use the term "pro" - i don't think it means what Apple wants it to mean. this is a consumption device, pure and simple. without even basic stuff such as dealing with large .bib files, IDEs, and scientific software, this is of very little use to the actual "pro"s.

Typical case of a horizon so narrow that it shrivels to a single point.

 

[celerysandwich]

Anand! Can't wait to give this a proper read, his stuff was great back when he was still at Anandtech.

Was? Don't care... It's still got his name! I remember reading his site at very beginning. Also Sharkey Express is remembered fondly.

Hate Apple with a passion but good for Anand!

Sharkey, HardOCP, Anandtech,MacNN, Ars used to be my top 5.

Now they all are shadows of their former selves. I rarely visit any of them now. Ars is just a big Amazon shill now.

The only site up and running since 1998 with the original poster is Blues News.

You rarely visit? I call BS, you're making a dozen troll posts a day.

Look at my join date, troll, 760 posts over 14 years isn't much.

 

[celerysandwich]

But can it run Crysis?

Quake 3 fps numbers?

Crusher FTW.

 

[Constructor]

Tell me, what happens when something doesn't have proper support and weight is applied? it smashes in half. That's a engineering fail and will likely be if ignored by all the press and fan boys.

I'm honestly flabbergasted that people continue ot support this company when they so blatantly build their devices, and even force them through updates, to either fail or suck over time.

My 4 years old iPhone running iOS12.1 perfectly and looking like day 1 calls bullshit on that!

And my 3 years old iPad Pro 12.9" in perfect condition, also running iOS12.1 perfectly just scoffed and rolled its eyes.

 

[celerysandwich]

Tell me, what happens when something doesn't have proper support and weight is applied? it smashes in half. That's a engineering fail and will likely be if ignored by all the press and fan boys.

I'm honestly flabbergasted that people continue ot support this company when they so blatantly build their devices, and even force them through updates, to either fail or suck over time.

They didn't become a trillion dollar company by giving people what they want.

 

[JamesKatt]

What isn't stated is that Apple's AX architecture can SCALE.

An iMac Pro has:
iMac Pro:
56 GPU cores
8 CPU Fast cores

AX Chip for MacBook needed to be as fast as iMac Pro Desktop:
28 GPU cores.
8 CPU Fast cores, 8 CPU efficient cores (or simply 8 CPU Fast cores)

 

[genekellyjr]

Benchmarks are all well and good, but what's the real-world performance like?

Had the same thought when confronted with a dozen slides of 'Geekbench'. I'm not against benchmarks, but at least can we test independently verifiable measures of useful work, such as video encoding, rar, etc.

Then for synthetics there are established measures which can be used to make transparent comparisons between platforms, such as linpack or various sqrt, prime functions.

Other sites have reviewed performance by comparing actual encoding, etc, just as you request. The iPad Pro is a monster at these tasks too. Outperforming even many intel i7 laptops, including apples own brand new MacBook Pro 13”. The Geekbench results here are a good approximation.

Just want to note that the encoding performance you reference is definitely using fixed function encoders - it's not the CPU performance as Geekbench tests use (and I want to stress cross-platform Geekbench isn't 1:1 scoring - you'll never find Andandtech comparing various CPU architectures with Geekbench). And the speeds the laptops show definitely point to a CPU encoder being used. A fixed function encoder will barely hit the CPU, while CPU encoding will max those cores at 100%. The CPU encoding is higher quality at the cost of heat and speed.


Recently Adobe updated Premier to support Intel's fixed function encoder (called quick sync) read here http://www.dvxuser.com/V6/showthread.ph ... re-Rush-CC post #8 - and Rush may not have gotten that update yet or the benchmark site referenced didn't update their program https://www.laptopmag.com/reviews/lapto ... 8-129-inch but I managed to find a benchmark for the quick sync in Premier https://forums.creativecow.net/thread/335/101459 - and Intel's quick sync fixed function stuff is all relatively the same afaik so the desktop CPU has less of an impact - gives a 1:20 min 4K -> 1080p conversion at 91 sec w/ CPU and 45 sec w/ fixed function, scale that up to 12 min (x9) and we get 13:39 w/ CPU (it's a nice CPU, i7-8700K) and the fixed function encoder gets 6:45. It'll probably scale pretty linearly. So 6:45 vs 7:47 with fixed function encoding - which isn't comparing CPUs at all at this point but rather their fixed function encoder!


So the iPad has some nice hardware, sure, but it's not outperforming Intel's brand new MB Pro 13" by leaps and bounds. They'll probably be about the same speed with fixed function encoding and the MB Pro 13" will win in a non-encoder setting thanks to its increased TDP.

 

[the_frakker]

7 pages into the comments, its probably been said and I just didn’t see it...

What happens to Windows on Mac if they go with custom silicon.

Windows support was widely considered a positive addition to Macs when Apple switched to Intel processors. Taking that away would upset quite a few fans who enjoy switching between macOS and Windows to enable use of all that each has to offer.

Windows on ARM isn’t going to keep people happy. Apple won’t put both an intel and their own silicon into their machines. While I don’t mind Apple moving to their own silicon I want to make sure we don’t lose out on this inter compatibility between OSes that only a MAC machine can currently offer, natively (for lack of better word). It’s cetainly not easy to get macOS running on anything other than a Mac computer.

 

[Wickwick]

7 pages into the comments, its probably been said and I just didn’t see it...

What happens to Windows on Mac if they go with custom silicon.

Windows support was widely considered a positive addition to Macs when Apple switched to Intel processors. Taking that away would upset quite a few fans who enjoy switching between macOS and Windows to enable use of all that each has to offer.

Windows on ARM isn’t going to keep people happy. Apple won’t put both an intel and their own silicon into their machines. While I don’t mind Apple moving to their own silicon I want to make sure we don’t lose out on this inter compatibility between OSes that only a MAC machine can currently offer, natively (for lack of better word). It’s cetainly not easy to get macOS running on anything other than a Mac computer.

Even MacOS stuff is going to need some sort of translation or emulation for a while. In the short term it's likely necessary Windows stuff could operate off that. Universal Windows apps should work on ARM. That would be better and may happen more if Mac users drive some of the need for those sorts of apps.

 

[Constructor]

What happens to Windows on Mac if they go with custom silicon.

CPU emulation as part of a VM.

It has been done before and dynamic code generation has improved a lot since then.

The farther the Apple CPUs get ahead over time, the less it will come at a performance hit.

Should the trajectories hold anywhere close to what they are now, there should be an inflection point a few years down the road when emulated Intel code will run faster than on actual Intel hardware.

Apple is a lot more motivated and apparently more capable of moving performance ahead than Intel is.

 

[dfjdejulio]

7 pages into the comments, its probably been said and I just didn’t see it...

What happens to Windows on Mac if they go with custom silicon.

It's pretty simple: it goes away, slows down (emulated CPU just like VirtulPC in the PowerPC days), or requires accessing other hardware over the network (like "VMWare View" or something).

And, each customer will get to decide which of those it is on their own. (I am pretty sure I'll use a mix of all three, if the day comes.)

 

[the_frakker]

7 pages into the comments, its probably been said and I just didn’t see it...

What happens to Windows on Mac if they go with custom silicon.

It's pretty simple: it goes away, slows down (emulated CPU just like VirtulPC in the PowerPC days), or requires accessing other hardware over the network (like "VMWare View" or something).

And, each customer will get to decide which of those it is on their own. (I am pretty sure I'll use a mix of all three, if the day comes.)

I do not want that. I enjoy developing web apps in Visual Studio on Windows, then switching to macOS to build the iOS app to accompany the web app in Xcode. It’s all done on the same machine and I don’t have to worry about virtualization or remote connections slowing things down. All I need is to restart my machine and choose my OS. I know there are many others who have similar workflows who would be extremely disappointed to have to virtualize their Windows machine. I tried VM before using Bootcamp and I don’t want to go back to anything like that. I’ll survive if they do. I just don’t want to.

 

[dfjdejulio]

7 pages into the comments, its probably been said and I just didn’t see it...

What happens to Windows on Mac if they go with custom silicon.

It's pretty simple: it goes away, slows down (emulated CPU just like VirtulPC in the PowerPC days), or requires accessing other hardware over the network (like "VMWare View" or something).

And, each customer will get to decide which of those it is on their own. (I am pretty sure I'll use a mix of all three, if the day comes.)

I do not want that. I enjoy developing web apps in Visual Studio on Windows, then switching to macOS to build the iOS app to accompany the web app in Xcode. It’s all done on the same machine and I don’t have to worry about virtualization or remote connections slowing things down. All I need is to restart my machine and choose my OS. I know there are many others who have similar workflows who would be extremely disappointed to have to virtualize their Windows machine. I tried VM before using Bootcamp and I don’t want to go back to anything like that. I’ll survive if they do. I just don’t want to.

Okay? Then you don't want the CPU to change.

I did actually answer what happens to Windows if the CPU changes. It's true whether you like the answer or not.

 

[Questar]

Tell me, what happens when something doesn't have proper support and weight is applied? it smashes in half. That's a engineering fail and will likely be if ignored by all the press and fan boys.

I'm honestly flabbergasted that people continue ot support this company when they so blatantly build their devices, and even force them through updates, to either fail or suck over time.

My 4 years old iPhone running iOS12.1 perfectly and looking like day 1 calls bullshit on that!

And my 3 years old iPad Pro 12.9" in perfect condition, also running iOS12.1 perfectly just scoffed and rolled its eyes.

Love is blind is so is a fanboy.

Do you find calling people names such as "fanboy" makes them receptive to your point of view?

 

[Questar]

Anand! Can't wait to give this a proper read, his stuff was great back when he was still at Anandtech.

Was? Don't care... It's still got his name! I remember reading his site at very beginning. Also Sharkey Express is remembered fondly.

Hate Apple with a passion but good for Anand!

Sharkey, HardOCP, Anandtech,MacNN, Ars used to be my top 5.

Now they all are shadows of their former selves. I rarely visit any of them now. Ars is just a big Amazon shill now.

The only site up and running since 1998 with the original poster is Blues News.

You rarely visit? I call BS, you're making a dozen troll posts a day.

Look at my join date, troll, 760 posts over 14 years isn't much.

Today - 13 posts
Yesterday - 14 posts
Tuesday - 20 posts
Monday - 5 posts

As I ask the other trolls, what's in it for you? What personal satisfaction do you get from crapping in Apple threads?

 

[Ogre_]

Love is blind is so is a fanboy.

You come here to talk about a CPU you don't give a damn about and have zero chance of ever using. And call him a fanboy? This is like Morman who comes knocking at my door complaining when you tell them you are Catholic. Who's proselytizing here?

 

[Ogre_]

I do not want that. I enjoy developing web apps in Visual Studio on Windows, then switching to macOS to build the iOS app to accompany the web app in Xcode.

No offense, but I don't think Apple is overly worried about enabling the small number of users who do this.

I do share a somewhat similar concern though. Docker runs atop an x86 VM and those images need to be deployed on x86 hardware so running ARM VMs isn't an option.

 

[Digital Dud]

I bet there were a lot of features planned for iOS 12 that would have made the iPad Pro more useful and were shelved for a later release. Like there was the rumored redesigned home screen.

 

[Ogre_]

I bet there were a lot of features planned for iOS 12 that would have made the iPad Pro more useful and were shelved for a later release. Like there was the rumored redesigned home screen.

Yup. One of the big downsides of the iPad having an annual release cycle tied to the iPhone.

 

[the_frakker]

7 pages into the comments, its probably been said and I just didn’t see it...

What happens to Windows on Mac if they go with custom silicon.

It's pretty simple: it goes away, slows down (emulated CPU just like VirtulPC in the PowerPC days), or requires accessing other hardware over the network (like "VMWare View" or something).

And, each customer will get to decide which of those it is on their own. (I am pretty sure I'll use a mix of all three, if the day comes.)

I do not want that. I enjoy developing web apps in Visual Studio on Windows, then switching to macOS to build the iOS app to accompany the web app in Xcode. It’s all done on the same machine and I don’t have to worry about virtualization or remote connections slowing things down. All I need is to restart my machine and choose my OS. I know there are many others who have similar workflows who would be extremely disappointed to have to virtualize their Windows machine. I tried VM before using Bootcamp and I don’t want to go back to anything like that. I’ll survive if they do. I just don’t want to.

Okay? Then you don't want the CPU to change.

I did actually answer what happens to Windows if the CPU changes. It's true whether you like the answer or not.

okay. You got me. It was sort of rhetorical when I asked because I want the answer Apple gives us if/when they make the switch. And if your answer is their answer, no I don’t like it... which was really the point of my OG post. \_(ツ)_/¯

 

[dfjdejulio]

I do not want that. I enjoy developing web apps in Visual Studio on Windows, then switching to macOS to build the iOS app to accompany the web app in Xcode.

No offense, but I don't think Apple is overly worried about enabling the small number of users who do this.

I do share a somewhat similar concern though. Docker runs atop an x86 VM and those images need to be deployed on x86 hardware so running ARM VMs isn't an option.

I do get this concern.

If we're talking about an interpreted or bytecode-based application (scripts, JVM, DotNet, whatever) , I'll probably prototype in an ARM container locally and then do final QA or regression as another step.

I mean, that's exactly what I did back when I was on PowerPC. I was doing Java stuff, and had no problem running it locally, and then threw the JAR/WAR files into another environment for QA before production deployment.

If performance isn't a concern, I may do that QA step on an emulated CPU. If it is, heck, in a pinch I know how to toss it into AWS, if my employer isn't willing to make a resource available for that. (And they typically are.)

Meanwhile, for other tasks (like really testing Android, iOS, or Switch code), things get simpler. I get to stop doing the things I described above for those jobs. (And yeah, I've actually played with the cloud-based Android developer stuff in AWS, the whole "device farm" thing.)

 

[rodmont]

By the time ARM-based Macs come, it is fair to assume macOS will support Universal (or Fat) binaries for both platforms, x86-64 and ARM-64. If I remember correctly there was a time X supported fat binaries for both Intel and PowerPC both 32 and 64-bit architectures, totalling 4 in a single package. Not optimal for a lot of reasons but possible at the time.

Once Apple allows only 64-bit Intel apps on macOS 10.15 next year, developers should get few paths, such as a straight ARM target platform compile with or without Intel support. Mac appstore apps should be simpler. As for some special cases where functions are not replicated in ARM, maybe xCode can help adapting some, maybe some manual changes need to be done, but for a small set of software. Big question if Adobe and Microsoft can transition quicker and cleaner this time, but I believe their team are more experienced now.

Most likely there will be a transition time where people still can get Intel Mac and run Windows in virtual fashion, or run those pro apps until they are natively running ARM code.

I would not expect Windows ARM as bootcamp possible because would be very niche market to dedicate support resources, even today this is declining in Intel Mac. If Mac app selection is stronger today than some years ago, with iOS compatibility layer Apple is testing on Mojave today, there should a great plethora of apps by then.