🦄 The Casual 2024 Presidential Election
- Thread starter monsterscraponme
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You're probably right about the ability of the general public's ability to recognize a single Supreme Court Justice, and on Biden not taking the opportunity to forge greater connections with the public at large.
What could sway the public on the Supreme Court, though, would be some recent decisions, namely Dobbs, and what that has done for womens' reproductive choice. That's moved the needle from arcane discussions of policy to decisions that affect people's everyday lives.
It seems to me no one recalls the absolute bilge that Trump was spewing at the debate and the insanity he's posted since. Oh, sorry, I forgot that endears him to his fan base and has no impact on "purple" people.
Just about everything Trump did at the debate was not answer questions, constantly bring up "millions streaming over the border," and lies. People have become inured to most of his rhetoric, for better or worse.
If Urmurrikan elections are a popularity contest, Democrats would be stupid to eject the man who's been in politics for half a century, who was VP for eight years and is on his fourth year of actually being POTUS. No other potential candidate has name recognition anywhere close to that, unless you count Michelle Obama. That's why her name keeps coming up--people know who she is. Whereas I, a supposedly well informed voter, can barely picture what Newsom or Klobuchar look like.
That's why the GOP is hoping Biden will get jettisoned in favor of some relative unknown who will promptly be defined by Trump, who is platformed beyond all comprehension.
There just isn't much to say about it other than to mention that he said it. You either know its a lie, or you believe its true and can't be argued otherwise. There is little to debate.
Fit&NerdyFSUgirl
Wise, Aged Ars Veteran
That would have been the topic in almost all of the media had Biden looked alive and handled his part of the debate reasonably well. Trump always lies and spews nonsense, but he is getting a free pass right now because the Biden dementia angle is far more of a bigger news story to most of the public.
Fit&NerdyFSUgirl
Wise, Aged Ars Veteran
Dobbs certainly energized a lot of younger female voters who may have not normally got around to voting back in 2022 and stemmed the predicted Red Wave. It seems that issue is not enough to carry the Presidential vote for Biden this year. The Super Bowl was an easy layup with the largest TV audience annually. The fact that Biden twice skipped the free shot at connecting with a huge number of captive voters should have been a major red flag to everyone in the Dem party. There were a lot of red flags, but so many people in politics don't understand the perpsecitve of most voters.
Regardless of anything else, I will say if you look at the viewership breakdowns for the Superbowl, spending ads targeting young women is only slightly better than just setting your cash on fire. Your money will go a lot further on targeted ads if you know your demographics.
Fit&NerdyFSUgirl
Wise, Aged Ars Veteran
That makes perfect sense in almost every concievable election, except for this one right now. Most of the voting public think Biden is a confused old man who can't handle the job and therefore is not electable, Having Harris or Michele O as the candidate would seriously change the narritve in the media right now from old man with demntia, to the first Black woman becoming President. Biden is a head of lettuce at this point.
To be fair, arguably the best way to look at that debate is that Biden's dismal performance knocked him down a few notches, and Trump's bilge knocked him down a few notches, but since they're the only two real choices, the overall numbers didn't move much.
Polls now showing Michelle Obama trouncing Trump are a pretty good indication that Trump's negatives are coming through at least to some extent, it's just that the Ds need a candidate who voters know, trust, and like to fully take advantage of that. (And they're losing trust in Biden, never liked Harris much, and don't know the rest of the potential candidates very well). A landslide D win is very much in reach if Biden can be convinced to step down soon, so that there's time for a set of events that can get new candidates' names and visions out there effectively.
Fit&NerdyFSUgirl
Wise, Aged Ars Veteran
Except the Super Bowl is still the most watched event for female viewers annually (58+ million)and Biden as President was offered a free live interview, it would have not cost Biden a single penny. Super Bowl viewership among young women (18-24) had the highest amount of gains this year (24%+) of any demographic.
Biden blew it by not taking the free chance to connect with 124 million US viewers live on TV in an election year. Either his team dropped the ball big time, or they already recognized he couldn't handle an unstructured live TV appearance.
But he did put out a blurry TikTok where he somehow managed to look One Hundred & Eighty One and apparently freaky-Friday’d with Cookie Monster.
Real vibrant, relevant stuff.
Made in Hurry
Ars Praefectus
The media over here is brutal with regards to Biden which are very much a left-leaning media. Weekend at Biden's has been referenced multiple times, showing videos from 4 years ago compared to now etc.
A lot of people are sitting on the edge of their seats wondering how the next months is going to be like.
A lot of people are sitting on the edge of their seats wondering how the next months is going to be like.
Honestly, I will vote for whatever Democrat is on the ticket, and hope that enough of the country follows suit to get enough Democratic Congressmen into power as well. If Biden runs and wins, fine. If the DNC floats a different candidate at the Convention and gets them on the ticket, fine. I think that the latter is a dangerous path that has far more risks than the former, but both have a path to success.
If Trump wins in 2024, that's the end of the United States as we know it. While I don't think he can cement the government into a total dictatorial power (he doesn't control the military, and doesn't have a firm grip on Congress), he can certainly fuck things up in his four years enough that we'll be reeling for decades from the consequences, both intended and otherwise.
And if Trump is somehow able to shake things enough to make a push to become God Emperor Trump, as some of his loons are already calling him, then we've got an actual constitutional crisis with teeth, and possibly the second US Civil War... if not World War 3.
If Trump wins in 2024, that's the end of the United States as we know it. While I don't think he can cement the government into a total dictatorial power (he doesn't control the military, and doesn't have a firm grip on Congress), he can certainly fuck things up in his four years enough that we'll be reeling for decades from the consequences, both intended and otherwise.
And if Trump is somehow able to shake things enough to make a push to become God Emperor Trump, as some of his loons are already calling him, then we've got an actual constitutional crisis with teeth, and possibly the second US Civil War... if not World War 3.
And if Biden dies in office of old age, would China use that opportunity to invade Taiwan? Would President Harris be able to respond immediately? Would Hezbollah step up its attacks on Israel? What would Iran do? Or how many of them are right now wondering whether Biden is capable of responding to a quickly emerging situation if it happens after 8 pm EST?
There are very real risks to having an incapacitated president, too.
There are very real risks to having an incapacitated president, too.
Made in Hurry
Ars Praefectus
Not only this, but with the conflicts going on, new NATO members and US investments into Europe as well, while we're emptying our stocks. What then if 1. Biden isn't paying attention. 2. Trump wins. Your political situation is very important for us as well.
The ramp up time to launch an invasion of Taiwan would take months. A presidential transition is a trivial thing compared with the positioning of troops and logistics necessary for such an endeavour.
Israel can handle itself.
Honestly this is all nonesensical FUD especially compared to the alternative of having Trump at the helm instead. At least with Biden, you'd have competent people staffing all the relevant agencies and not the incompetent sycophants that Trump would chose.
...or they did the cost calculation and realized that the massive expense of a Superbowl ad doesn't get returns compared to other kinds of spending. Political superbowl ads are rare for a reason. A minute of air time would be $14m, which is a major hit to anyone's war chest.
Biden blaming jet lag for his debate performance.. despite spending 6 days at Camp David doing debate prep:
https://apple.news/AJfeHbjLMSY-9HPdimn_0jQ
https://apple.news/AJfeHbjLMSY-9HPdimn_0jQ
NewNinetyNine
Wise, Aged Ars Veteran
Keeping Biden on the ticket is rolling out a red carpet to a Trump presidency. He was losing before the debate and his polling is plummeting, afterwards. As of yesterday, New Hampshire is in play, which likely means Virginia and New Mexico are winnable. Ethics of a known-cognitively-declined president aside, this is a "break the glass" electoral situation.
I'm also floored that such a thoughtful and articulate person is writing off concerns that a president navigating cognitive decline, potential serious health issues, and potential death in office as "nonsensical FUD." Biden's Ukraine coalition shows how instrumental a functioning president can be to rallying allies and Americans to a cause. And we're watching in real time how a president too feeble to campaign well is failing to be a bulwark against Trumpism as a party leader, a candidate, and a president.
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NewNinetyNine
Wise, Aged Ars Veteran
Name recognition without popularity is a fatal combination. Many of Biden's alternatives poll lower than he does in a head-to-head matchup due to national voters not knowing enough about them to say one way or the other. Every voter knows Biden, and they really, really dislike him. He's less popular than Trump was at this point in 2020, as a reference.
Someone like Whitmer will get every camera in the world chasing her if she gets the nomination, and she has a huge ceiling to improve her national numbers. Indeed, an alternate candidate selection process might be the one positive thing that can suck oxygen away from 24/7 Trump coverage. Biden is completely known and his no room to improve. But he would have a lot of chances to show cognitive decline and lose the election by larger margins.
The options aren't "mind wipe the country and return to losing by a plausible amount on 6/26" and "new candidate." They are "embrace Trump through Biden's flailing campaign and plummeting polling" and "new candidate."
One thing is for sure: if Biden stays in the running, election night is going to be one of the most boring in history. No nervously watching the electoral tally as the votes come in, as the surety of Trump's victory will already be known.
Did the jet lag cause the cold or vice versa?
Coming up with one excuse after the fact isn't great. Coming up with different excuses after the fact is bad.
I think people have become inured to our government.
I still think allowing people that have no fucking clue what's going on to have a say at the table is really really fucking stupid. I guess it's comfort that a lot of folks don't have say for at least the president side of it. My vote doesn't count but Fat Charlie's vote in CA doesn't either so I guess that's a wash.
NewNinetyNine
Wise, Aged Ars Veteran
OK, come up with a method for evaluating who "has a fucking clue" and can participate that can't be abused by nefarious actors.
I would go in the opposite direction with mandatory voting that shifts power away from the most zealous partisans.
I think voting works on a smaller scale but as human population goes up the voting stops working as well. At this point the USA should probably be at least 5 different countries if not more.
Now if we had completely free elections then I'd be more 'for' voting but we don't. Now if we go 'everyone has to vote, but you get paid 50$ to do it' then I'd be fine with that.
Any election that doesn't count one's vote is a sham and illegitimate. That's what we have here for the presidential election which is why I don't care what happens. The USA started with this issue and never solved it so the USA dies with it.
Now if we had completely free elections then I'd be more 'for' voting but we don't. Now if we go 'everyone has to vote, but you get paid 50$ to do it' then I'd be fine with that.
Any election that doesn't count one's vote is a sham and illegitimate. That's what we have here for the presidential election which is why I don't care what happens. The USA started with this issue and never solved it so the USA dies with it.
I'd also go with sortition - some significant portion of any legislative body must be randomly selected from the at-large populace.
NewNinetyNine
Wise, Aged Ars Veteran
How does that work with SCOTUS's recent ruling that a bribe given after a favor is legal? It would be trivial for Acme Corporation to bribe 535 people who were previously averaging ~$75k per year.I'd be fine with all positions randomly selected. Everyone has to sign up for 'service' and one day you might be a senator for a year.
Bribery aside, this idea just doesn't scale past something like a settlement level where there is strong social accountability and a direct stake in outcomes. At a US Federal level, the problems are much more complex and the power concentrated into individual offices is staggering, while accountability is non-existent. OK, my uncle that thinks we should "nuke the Middle East" is now commender in chief, and people who can't even read at a high school level are writing legislation under the watchful eyes of lobbyists.
Sortition always feels like someone who is yearning for a less complex world instead of facing the challenges of the empirical world.
I thought it was only the President that was allowed to take bribes.
Yeah this.
I'm sure everyone here is taking this seriously, but just in case.... the president of the Heritage Foundation said this about being pleased with the SCOTUS immunity decision:
https://www.mediamatters.org/projec...brates-supreme-court-immunity-decision-we-are
https://www.mediamatters.org/projec...brates-supreme-court-immunity-decision-we-are
NewNinetyNine
Wise, Aged Ars Veteran
https://www.scotusblog.com/2024/06/supreme-court-limits-scope-of-anti-bribery-law/
Congress could pass a new law to regulate gratuities, but...well...Congress.
Look on the bright side, the people in power who can lead us through putting down this fascist uprising can’t even lead themselves through the end of a sentence.
Wait. What was the bright side again?
Good to see Heritage Foundation finally going mask off. At least that's a genie never going back in a bottle.
Fuck the Heritage Foundation. In other news:
New York Times - Biden Told Ally That He Is Weighing Whether to Continue in the Race
To the (currently) 7.4% of Soap Box respondents who said Biden may step down before the convention: here's the first indication that may be starting to become closer to a reality.
Assuming the report is accurate, I think this is quite telling. If Biden is actually wavering, I'd have to feel like it's because he doesn't have full confidence in his ability to be up to the task.
I also don't expect the New York Times (and similar outlets) to stop hammering the issue as long as there's meat on the bone. His campaign also needs to realize it's not just the next few appearances in the upcoming days. It's the next debate. The DNC convention.
I'm not fully jumping on the "drop out" train just yet. I don't think it's as cut and dry as some make it out to be. Potential Biden replacements (I'd assume it would be Kamala and a VP pick) v. Trump are still an unknown and you don't rush to that decision until you've formulated an idea as to how you'll execute a post-Biden platform and campaign.
New York Times - Biden Told Ally That He Is Weighing Whether to Continue in the Race
To the (currently) 7.4% of Soap Box respondents who said Biden may step down before the convention: here's the first indication that may be starting to become closer to a reality.
Assuming the report is accurate, I think this is quite telling. If Biden is actually wavering, I'd have to feel like it's because he doesn't have full confidence in his ability to be up to the task.
I also don't expect the New York Times (and similar outlets) to stop hammering the issue as long as there's meat on the bone. His campaign also needs to realize it's not just the next few appearances in the upcoming days. It's the next debate. The DNC convention.
I'm not fully jumping on the "drop out" train just yet. I don't think it's as cut and dry as some make it out to be. Potential Biden replacements (I'd assume it would be Kamala and a VP pick) v. Trump are still an unknown and you don't rush to that decision until you've formulated an idea as to how you'll execute a post-Biden platform and campaign.
NewNinetyNine
Wise, Aged Ars Veteran
Someone on the 538 subreddit put together a swell swing state tracker that shows the 538 average of polls by swing state on one tab and recent 538-recognized polls on the other tab. It's so much better than going state by state through their drop-down:
https://swingstates.vercel.app/
https://swingstates.vercel.app/
Back in college, for two semesters I had a roommate who had a bad stutter who was going through therapy for such. Really smart guy who went on to get a M.Ed. and become a teacher and coach. I remember at the time he'd have bouts where his stutter would get really bad, usually brought on by stress and/or fatigue; not only would he have trouble getting words out and, if he forced it, he'd end up sputtering out the wrong words instead of what he was actually trying to say or getting word order mixed up. Watching Biden in the debate last week reminded me of that -- someone who suffers with stuttering. Weird side-note, by the end of that second semester I had started to form a stutter myself, but fortunately it didn't last.
As far as cognitive impairment, keeping his stutter in mind, I don't really see it. Yes, he's slower and certainly has his gaffes, but overall he does seem cognitively present and aware. Of course I can only judge (like the rest of us, I suspect) by what I see in various news sources and on the boob tube. Mainly, though, when it comes to the election, I'm much more concerned with the administration as a whole rather than just the individual person running for POTUS.
I think what bothers me as well is just how much nitpicking there is going on as to what Biden said (or, yes, also didn't manage to say) but I see very little discussion over Trump's part in the debate. Typically during these types of debates, I'm accustomed to listening and picking out incorrect and false statements here and there, but in Trump's case, it was the exact opposite. I couldn't pick out any truths. I had a hard time picking out anything he said that wasn't, frankly, an outright lie. It was literally a flood of -- excuse my language -- bullshit that came out of his mouth. THAT is not normal and scares me way more than an elderly statesman who may have lost a step or two.
As far as cognitive impairment, keeping his stutter in mind, I don't really see it. Yes, he's slower and certainly has his gaffes, but overall he does seem cognitively present and aware. Of course I can only judge (like the rest of us, I suspect) by what I see in various news sources and on the boob tube. Mainly, though, when it comes to the election, I'm much more concerned with the administration as a whole rather than just the individual person running for POTUS.
I think what bothers me as well is just how much nitpicking there is going on as to what Biden said (or, yes, also didn't manage to say) but I see very little discussion over Trump's part in the debate. Typically during these types of debates, I'm accustomed to listening and picking out incorrect and false statements here and there, but in Trump's case, it was the exact opposite. I couldn't pick out any truths. I had a hard time picking out anything he said that wasn't, frankly, an outright lie. It was literally a flood of -- excuse my language -- bullshit that came out of his mouth. THAT is not normal and scares me way more than an elderly statesman who may have lost a step or two.
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