Election Night Special on the BBC is a British institution.
Late on a Thursday night in early May, Peter Snow will spend the evening leaping around in front of his CGI Swing-o-meter, illustrating what will happen if Labour or Conservative win this or that many seats, whilst a Dimbleby expertly fills the early gaps between results. I will sit up until stupid o'clock in the morning, eating crisps and drinking coffee, entranced by this visualisation of democracy in action.
This time, however, will be different. For the past 25 years or so, it's been about the cadence and swing from Conservative to Labour and back again, with the Liberal Democrats always picking up enough seats to be talked about, but never enough to be talked about for very long.
The difference this time is UKIP. A party made up of "fruitcakes, loonies and closet racists" (D. Cameron, 2006) with a manifesto that says "We're leaving Europe. And there's some other stuff too, honest!", led by the man of the people, pint-and-a-fag* toting Nigel Farage (but we are to ignore the fact that he's a public-school educated ex-investment banker who, frankly, is as establishment as they come). UKIP have expertly taken the current ineptitude displayed by both main parties (and the implosion of the Liberal Democrats) and have now won two seats in parliament, as a result of Conservative MPs crossing the floor.
The Conservatives, in coalition with the Liberal Democrats since 2010, are currently on course to lose the 2015 Election to Labour. This is likely even though the Labour Party has the worst leader for a generation - David Miliband lacks credibility, his presentation skills are terrible and really, the only reason he's still there is that the pool of possible candidates is made up of people who are even less likeable. Michael Foot - the most obvious comparison - may have looked a bit funny, but he was a compelling orator and had a fierce intellect.
The Lib Dems are likely to pay a terrible price for their brief sortie into government, and although they'll probably cling onto a few MPs in their safest seats, are facing near-obliteration. Many LD voters regarded the coalition with the Conservatives as a fundamental betrayal. This is probably to Labour's benefit, and the Greens will also collect a few votes (and possibly an MP or two).
The Conservatives' big problem is UKIP. The faintly xenophobic, "common sense" (which as we know tends to collapse in the face of the ugly reality that real life is much more complicated than that) approach appeals to disenfranchised Tories who also felt betrayed by the coalition with the filthy lefties in the Lib Dems. This split in the Tory vote is not likely to be an existential threat to the party, as per the LDs, but it is likely to cost them the Election.
It is likely that UKIP will pick up more seats. Whether UKIP's policies are sufficiently robust to withstand a (highly unlikely) Faustian pact with the Conservatives or whether the bitter reality of government will cause them to "do a Lib Dems" remains to be seen.
*cigarette, for our Merkin chums
Late on a Thursday night in early May, Peter Snow will spend the evening leaping around in front of his CGI Swing-o-meter, illustrating what will happen if Labour or Conservative win this or that many seats, whilst a Dimbleby expertly fills the early gaps between results. I will sit up until stupid o'clock in the morning, eating crisps and drinking coffee, entranced by this visualisation of democracy in action.
This time, however, will be different. For the past 25 years or so, it's been about the cadence and swing from Conservative to Labour and back again, with the Liberal Democrats always picking up enough seats to be talked about, but never enough to be talked about for very long.
The difference this time is UKIP. A party made up of "fruitcakes, loonies and closet racists" (D. Cameron, 2006) with a manifesto that says "We're leaving Europe. And there's some other stuff too, honest!", led by the man of the people, pint-and-a-fag* toting Nigel Farage (but we are to ignore the fact that he's a public-school educated ex-investment banker who, frankly, is as establishment as they come). UKIP have expertly taken the current ineptitude displayed by both main parties (and the implosion of the Liberal Democrats) and have now won two seats in parliament, as a result of Conservative MPs crossing the floor.
The Conservatives, in coalition with the Liberal Democrats since 2010, are currently on course to lose the 2015 Election to Labour. This is likely even though the Labour Party has the worst leader for a generation - David Miliband lacks credibility, his presentation skills are terrible and really, the only reason he's still there is that the pool of possible candidates is made up of people who are even less likeable. Michael Foot - the most obvious comparison - may have looked a bit funny, but he was a compelling orator and had a fierce intellect.
The Lib Dems are likely to pay a terrible price for their brief sortie into government, and although they'll probably cling onto a few MPs in their safest seats, are facing near-obliteration. Many LD voters regarded the coalition with the Conservatives as a fundamental betrayal. This is probably to Labour's benefit, and the Greens will also collect a few votes (and possibly an MP or two).
The Conservatives' big problem is UKIP. The faintly xenophobic, "common sense" (which as we know tends to collapse in the face of the ugly reality that real life is much more complicated than that) approach appeals to disenfranchised Tories who also felt betrayed by the coalition with the filthy lefties in the Lib Dems. This split in the Tory vote is not likely to be an existential threat to the party, as per the LDs, but it is likely to cost them the Election.
It is likely that UKIP will pick up more seats. Whether UKIP's policies are sufficiently robust to withstand a (highly unlikely) Faustian pact with the Conservatives or whether the bitter reality of government will cause them to "do a Lib Dems" remains to be seen.
*cigarette, for our Merkin chums
