It could well be a blockbuster hurricane season, and that’s not a good thing
- Thread starter JournalBot
- Start date
It always amuses me that one of the foremost authorities on hurricanes has his office about as far as possible from any US coast.
Upvote
250
(251
/
-1)
What always gets me, is that in the US at least, the areas most likely hit by by these storms that have become more numerous and more forceful due to climate change are populated by those most likely to deny climate change exists.
Upvote
96
(117
/
-21)
Predictions are notoriously difficult, and I've heard this before. Regardless of if it is a active or very active season, everyone in the potential path of hurricanes should take the appropriate precautions for a potential storm. Too many people don't.
Upvote
29
(29
/
0)
That might be a very good indication of how much in understands about them. Colorado has some very good scientists in both Earth and Space arenas.
Upvote
89
(94
/
-5)
Thanks for the article Eric. I have been hoping for some time you'd post on Metrology.
It's time for my company to start to consider where to pre deploy emergent generators.
It's time for my company to start to consider where to pre deploy emergent generators.
Upvote
17
(20
/
-3)
He grew up here and his brother still owns a pizza shop here. Occasional false alarms for us.
Upvote
101
(101
/
0)
It's not too late to buy flood insurance! I believe the policy has to be in effect 30 days prior to the incident. Stock up now!
Upvote
27
(29
/
-2)
I imagine he knows something that coastal residents don't know
Of course that area is drying out something fierce. You can't win.
Upvote
20
(22
/
-2)
Thus far it seems that hurricane numbers aren't increased by climate change, but the storms are more severe as a result. Nitpicky, I know.
Curious what this will do to the Florida home insurance market, already a lot of insurers are pulling out because apparently the legal code there makes it really easy to claim your roof was "damaged" in a "storm" and sue your insurer to pay for a replacement for your thirty year old roof.
Upvote
35
(36
/
-1)
I know you're being silly but -
Commercial flood/natural disaster insurance is not available in many areas, esp in Florida, Louisiana, Texas from regular insurance carriers due to them crunching the numbers and not finding any financial viability to do so. There are some government insurance programs to take up the slack, but I believe they're limited and prohibitively expensive.
Florida for example (which by the way, homeowners in some areas are legally required to get flood insurance):
Most flood insurance policies currently providing coverage in Florida are underwritten by the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP)
https://www.myfloridacfo.com/division/consumers/understanding-insurance/flood-insurance-overview
Flooding is the most common and most damaging natural disaster in the country. In Florida, flood risk is higher due to the state’s frequency of storms and proximity to water. Despite this, most insurance policies do not cover flooding.
https://www.floridadisaster.org/planprepare/flood-insurance/
Upvote
66
(66
/
0)
Im still waiting on another great lakes hurricane. Once we get those, chicago is miami.
Upvote
6
(9
/
-3)
Given the state of the art in forecasting (still not very accurate after 3 days out), what's the track record for these guys compared to others with respect to long-seasonal range forecast accuracy? I do get that these early predictions are subject to corrections as time passes and conditions change. I also get that state of the art is improving. I'm just curious if any new tech has been added to the mix to give the number of each type of storms, or if that's just a SWAG for the sake of having some range people can think about for planning purposes.
I seem to recall quite a few snafus along the way in the past with storms vastly outstripping early predictions, and vice versa. But given the conditions, I'd expect a busier tropical storm season, too. It's the number of them that seems to be the most speculative.
Upvote
2
(9
/
-7)
I wouldn't write it that definitively.
There's not yet evidence about storm count that is clear enough to reject the null hypothesis of no change in count. Basically, there's too much uncertainty in the counts early on, so when you try to correct you end up throwing away so much data you can't tell anything anymore.
There's clear evidence about storm severity.
Upvote
29
(29
/
0)
See, this is a great reason why I Ars. I had no idea who this was (I don’t have cable and apparently that makes me out of touch) and now I know this man’s legacy (and I understand the reference! /cap)
This guy is a weatherman extreme.
Last edited:
Upvote
46
(46
/
0)
Upvote
17
(19
/
-2)
Another? Holy cow! Just looked it up - 1913 and 1996, though I guess there's some quibbling about definitions with them. Still really nasty storms though still not as bad as the ones in the Atlantic.
Upvote
19
(19
/
0)
Given interest rates these days, Aquaman is going to have to come up with some inventive financing schemes.
PS: *whom
Upvote
36
(36
/
0)
Upvote
22
(22
/
0)
Upvote
14
(14
/
0)
Well, he’s starting from underwater, so getting any kind of mortgage is going to be tricky…
Upvote
60
(60
/
0)
Hurricane Irene in 2011 utterly devastated the Adirondacks and Green Mountains (NY and Vermont) after landfall at NYC. The winds were apparently strong enough in Montreal to cause some damage, but I don't really remember it so I guess it wasn't that crazy here -- but I remember the towns in Vermont and NY being isolated for days until emergency services could get to them, and major roads being cut for months until repairs could be done. There's a concrete pad well above the road on my road down to where I often go in the Dacks that is spray-painted with the high water mark for Irene; at that point the road is well above the (usual) stream.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Irene#Vermont
Remnants of storms can be devastating a long way inland. Part of that is that it rarely happens, so the infrastructure isn't set up to deal with the volume of rain or the power of the wind.
Upvote
16
(16
/
0)
It's one of the things that struck me about the clip. Hbomberguy is hacking away with an axe and screaming about the complete insanity and ... makes sure to be grammatically correct.
Upvote
7
(7
/
0)
Upvote
12
(12
/
0)
Oh, good point. I do not have the four hours to watch him tear your post to shreds.
Upvote
7
(7
/
0)
I hope he does. My infamy meter level is dangerously low right now. (edit: added missing word)
JK of course. I love Hbomberguy. The plagiarism video was astounding. Real eye-opening stuff
Last edited:
Upvote
6
(6
/
0)
Not anymore. Tort reform legislation (FL HB 837) was passed and signed that essentially closed off most paths for bad faith claims.
https://www.adamsandreese.com/news-knowledge/florida-tort-reform-deeper-dive-hb-837
Upvote
6
(6
/
0)
Irene did a number on my house. We had a huge snow-pack that year, causing Lake Champlain to be at flood stage. Then Irene hit. My back yard was a pond and my basement flooded. I may have discounted Irene some, I'm not sure how bad it would have actually been had it not hit the state that was already at flood levels.
Now you make me worry a bit more about this year. After Irene we got a sump installed in the basement. Usually it's dry all year except in the spring. There has been water in the bucket at least since December when we had the flooding due to premature snow melt. I didn't think to look before then, so I don't know. More heavy rains won't be nice.
Upvote
5
(5
/
0)
If you can find someone willing to take the risk at a price that you can afford. If you are in the #1 target, Florida, get ready to be hosed buying insurance from the state, and then hosed again when your taxes are forced to pick up the state insurance fund deficit. And remember, actuaries can read these forecasts as well as you can. And are probably better at numbers than you are.
Last edited:
Upvote
42
(42
/
0)
Hurricanes are mainly driven by heat transfer from the ocean to the atmosphere, which does not much further warm the air, but mainly transfers energy by adding water vapor to the atmosphere. Conversion of that water vapor back to liqid water adds a massive 540 cal/gm of energy to the atmosphere. A warmer ocean clearly transfers more energy = water to the atmosphere, and then cools as a result. So another hurricane cannot form immediately because there is no longer enough energy in the surface water to transfer to the atmosphere. However, as the heat becomes more extreme, and penetrates further into the water column, this mechanism of limiting the frequency of hurricanes should become less effective, as there will be plenty more warm water under the cooled layer. And as the cooled layer will be more dense, both due to cooling, and to higher salinity due to evaporating a lot of water, and almost no salt in to the atmosphere, it should sink pretty rapidly, and expose more warm water at the surface. So, unless there are atmospheric brakes on hurricane frequency, I would expect an increase in hurricane frequency as well as intensity as things warm up further. As they inexorably will.
Upvote
47
(47
/
0)