Two weeks ago, I wrote about reports that Cruise—a self-driving venture co-owned by GM and Honda—was on the verge of buying startup Voyage. Now it's official: Cruise is acquiring Voyage.
Voyage's strategy was to launch its first self-driving taxi service at the Villages, a massive retirement community in Florida. The Villages is large enough that people need a car to get around, yet many of its residents are at or near the age where they can't drive safely. The community had a speed limit of 25 miles per hour, reducing the risk that anyone would be killed if a self-driving car malfunctioned.
In a piece two years ago, I suggested that focusing on a relatively easy application of self-driving technology like this could allow a startup like Voyage to succeed while their larger rivals floundered. I argued that once a company like Voyage has a viable commercial service in a limited area, expanding over time to a larger area and higher speeds would be relatively easy.
But while launching at the Villages might be easier than tackling suburban Phoenix (like Alphabet's Waymo) or urban San Francisco (like Cruise), it evidently wasn't easy enough for Voyage to manage. For several years, Voyage has been piloting a service at the Villages with safety drivers behind the wheel. But the company never felt ready to remove the safety drivers—the key step to make a self-driving service commercially viable.
"Delivering self-driving technology is hard, but building a viable self-driving business is harder," Voyage CEO Oliver Cameron wrote in his blog post announcing the acquisition.
Meanwhile, Waymo finally did launch a fully driverless commercial service in the Phoenix suburbs last October—albeit one with a small geographic footprint. Since then, we haven't heard much about the company's expansion plans. Most other companies, including Cruise, seem to still be a ways away from reaching this point.
All of which suggests that this might not be one of those markets where plucky startups disrupt stodgy incumbents. Leading companies in the industry now include Waymo (owned by Alphabet), Cruise (owned by GM and Honda), Argo (owned by Ford and Volkswagen), Zoox (owned by Amazon), Mobileye (owned by Intel), and Motional (owned by Hyundai and Aptiv).