Are Tesla’s robot prototypes AI marvels or remote-controlled toys?

Two years ago, Tesla's Optimus prototype was an underwhelming mess of exposed wires that could only operate in a carefully controlled stage presentation. Last night, Tesla's "We, Robot" event featured much more advanced Optimus prototypes that could walk around without tethers and interact directly with partygoers.

It was an impressive demonstration of the advancement of a technology Tesla's Elon Musk said he thinks "will be the biggest product ever of any kind" (way to set reasonable expectations, there). But the live demos have also set off a firestorm of discussion over just how autonomous these Optimus robots currently are.

A robot in every garage

Before the human/robot party could get started, Musk introduced the humanoid Optimus robots as a logical extension of some of the technology that Tesla uses in its cars, from batteries and motors to software. "It's just a robot with arms and legs instead of a robot with wheels," Musk said breezily, easily underselling the huge differences between human-like movements and a car's much more limited input options.

After confirming that the company "started off with someone in a robot suit"—a reference to a somewhat laughable 2021 Tesla presentation—Musk said that "rapid progress" has been made in the Optimus program in recent years. Extrapolating that progress to the "long term" future, Musk said, would lead to a point where you could purchase "your own personal R2-D2, C-3PO" for $20,000 to $30,000 (though he did allow that it could "take us a minute to get to the long term").

And what will you get for that $30,000 when the "long term" finally comes to pass? Musk grandiosely promised that Optimus will be able to do "anything you want," including babysitting kids, walking dogs, getting groceries, serving drinks, or "just be[ing] your friend." Given those promised capabilities, it's perhaps no wonder that Musk confidently predicted that "every one of the 8 billion people of Earth" will want at least one Optimus, leading to an "age of abundance" where the labor costs for most services "declines dramatically."

Let’s go to the videotape

Even without Musk's long history of grandiose promises that never come to pass (or at the very least extend well past Musk's proposed deadlines), it would be easy to be skeptical of this limitless, "anything you want" vision, no matter the time scale. In an attempt to quash that skepticism a bit, rather than relying on a canned video or "walled off" demo, Musk urged the "We, Robot" crowd to interact with the Optimus prototypes at an afterparty. "I mean... it's a wild experience to just have human robots and... they're there, just in front of you," Musk said.

Scanning social media, it's easy to find videos from party attendees showing Optimus doing things as basic as walking in a straight line (though with a notably wide berth enforced by Tesla employees walking alongside) and as complicated as serving drinks at a bar (though it seems to have some trouble finding the beer tap at points). An Optimus vs. Human Rock Paper Scissors game was also shown, guided by a Tesla employee calling out the timing loudly and clearly.

There are also plenty of videos of Optimus robots carrying on entire conversations with attendees, complete with some halting gestures and body language. While we've been impressed with AI models' conversational capabilities of late (such as OpenAI's Advanced Voice Mode), there's something about the smoothness and intonation in these conversations—and the robots' ability to pick out and interact with a single human voice amid lots of noise—that suggests a human and a microphone operating behind Optimus' smooth, featureless face.

The proof is in the pudding

In his presentation, Musk carefully avoided saying whether the partying Optimus prototypes were AI-powered, fully autonomous agents or simply fancy, remote-controlled playthings (or some combination of both). That has led to some fierce speculation and debate over how close these prototypes actually are to Musk's grandiose "do anything" robotic promise.